The morning of November 23, 2013, a lava fountain formed from the New South-East Crater (NSEC) of Mt. Etna (Italy), one of the most active volcanoes in Europe. The explosive activity was observed from two ground-based radars, the X-band polarimetric scanning and the L-band Doppler fixed-pointing, as well as from a thermal-infrared camera. Taking advantage of the capability of the microwave radars to probe the volcanic plume and extending the volcanic ash radar retrieval (VARR) methodology, we estimate the mass eruption rate (MER) using three main techniques, namely surface-flux approach (SFA), mass continuity-based approach (MCA), and top-plume approach (TPA), as well as provide a quantitative evaluation of their uncertainty. Estimated exit velocities are between 160 and 230 m/s in the paroxysmal phase. The intercomparison between the SFA, MCA, and TPA methods, in terms of retrieved MER, shows a fairly good consistency with values up to 2.4 x 10⁶ kg/s. The estimated total erupted mass (TEM) is 3.8 x 10⁹, 3.9 x 10⁹, and 4.7 x 10⁹ kg for SFA with L-band, X-band, and thermal-infrared camera, respectively. Estimated TEM is between 1.7 x 10⁹ kg and 4.3 x 10⁹ for TPA methods and 3.9 x 10⁹ kg for the MCA technique. The SFA, MCA, and TPA results for TEM are in fairly good agreement with independent evaluations derived from ground collection of tephra deposit and estimated to be between 1.3 ± 1.1 x 10⁹ and 5.7 x 10⁹ kg. This article shows that complementary strategies of ground-based remote sensing systems can provide an accurate real-time monitoring of a volcanic explosive activity.

Multi-sensor strategies are key to the real-time determination of eruptive source parameters (ESPs) of explosive eruptions necessary to forecast accurately both tephra dispersal and deposition. To explore the capacity of these strategies in various eruptive conditions, we analyze data acquired by two Doppler radars, ground- and satellite-based infrared sensors, one infrasound array, visible video-monitoring cameras as well as data from tephra-fallout deposits associated with a weak and a strong paroxysmal event at Mount Etna (Italy). We find that the different sensors provide complementary observations that should be critically analyzed and combined to provide comprehensive estimates of ESPs. First, all measurements of plume height agree during the strong paroxysmal activity considered, whereas some discrepancies are found for the weak paroxysm due to rapid plume and cloud dilution. Second, the event duration, key to convert the total erupted mass (TEM) in the mass eruption rate (MER) and vice versa, varies depending on the sensor used, providing information on different phases of the paroxysm (i.e., unsteady lava fountaining, lava fountain-fed tephra plume, waning phase associated with plume and cloud expansion in the atmosphere). As a result, TEM and MER derived from different sensors also correspond to the different phases of the paroxysms. Finally, satellite retrievals for grain-size can be combined with radar data to provide a first approximation of total grain-size distribution (TGSD) in near real-time. Such a TGSD shows a promising agreement with the TGSD derived from the combination of satellite data and whole deposit grain-size distribution (WDGSD).

During explosive eruptions, the real-time estimation of the mass eruption rate (MER) is challenging although crucial to mitigate the impact of erupted tephra. Microwave radar techniques at L and/or X bands, as well as thermal infrared imagery, can provide a reliable MER estimation in real time. Using lava fountains of 3-5 December 2015 at Mt. Etna (Italy) as test cases, we investigate the differences among all these remote sensing methods and introduce a new approach, called the Near Source Approach (NSA) using only X-band radar data. We also extend the Volcanic Advanced Radar Retrieval (VARR) methodology to estimate the gas-tephra mixture density near the volcanic crater. The analysis of uncertainty is carried out comparing the NSA with the Mass Continuity Approach (MCA), Top Plume Approach (TPA) and Surface Flux approach (SFA), already used to estimate the MER of other Etna explosive events. The analysis allows us to identify the optimal real-time MER retrieval strategy, showing the potential and limitations of each method. We show that the MCA method, entirely based on the X-band radar data processing, is the best strategy with a percentage uncertainty in the MER estimation of 22.3%, whereas other approaches exhibit e a higher uncertainty (26.4% for NSA, 30% for TPA and 31.6% for SFA).

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the effects of variable eruption source parameters on volcanic plume transport in the Mediterranean basin after the paroxysm of Mount Etna on 23 November 2013. This paroxysm was characterized by a north-east transport of ash and gas, caused by a low-pressure system in northern Italy. It is evaluated here in a joint approach considering the WRF-Chem model configured with eruption source parameters (ESPs) obtained elaborating the raw data from the VOLDORAD-2B (V2B) Doppler radar system. This allows the inclusion of the transient and fluctuating nature of the volcanic emissions to accurately model the atmospheric dispersion of ash and gas. Two model configurations were considered: the first with the climax values for the ESP and the second with the time-varying ESP according to the time profiles of the mass eruption rate recorded by the V2B radar. It is demonstrated that the second configuration produces a considerably better comparison with satellite retrievals from different sensors platforms (Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite, Meteosat Second-Generation Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite). In the context of volcanic ash transport dispersion modeling, our results indicate the need for (i) the use of time-varying ESP, and (ii) a joint approach between an online coupled chemical transport model like WRF-Chem and direct near-source measurements, such as those carried out by the V2B Doppler radar system.