Negative binomial (NB) regression model has been used to analyze crime in previous studies. The disadvantage of the NB model is that it cannot deal with spatial effects. Therefore, spatial regression models, such as the geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model, were introduced to address spatial heterogeneity in crime analysis. However, GWPR could not account for overdispersion, which is commonly observed in crime data. The geographically weighted negative binomial model (GWNBR) was adopted to address spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion simultaneously in crime analysis, based on a 3-year data set collected from ZG city, China, in this study. The count of residential burglaries was used as the dependent variable to calibrate the above models, and the results revealed that the GWPR and GWNBR models performed better than NB for reducing spatial dependency in the model residuals. GWNBR outperformed GWPR for incorporating overdispersion. Therefore, GWNBR was proven to be a promising tool for crime modeling.

Urban crime incidents always exhibit a structure of spatio-temporal dependence. Exploration of the spatio-temporal interactions of crime incidents is critical to understanding the occurrence mechanism and spatial transmission characteristics of crime occurrences, therefore facilitating the determination of policing practices. Although previous researches have repeatedly demonstrated that the crime incidents are spatially clustered, the anisotropic characteristics of spatial interaction has not been fully considered and the detailed spatial transmission of crime incidents has rarely been explored. To better understand the spatio-temporal interaction patterns of crime occurrence, this study proposes a new spatial association mining approach to discover significant spatial transmission routes and related high flow regions. First, all near repeat crime pairs are identified based on spatio-temporal proximity. Then, these links between close pairs are simplified by spatial aggregation on spatial grids. Based on that, measures of the spatio-temporal interactions are defined and a spatial association pattern mining approach is developed to discover significant spatial interaction patterns. Finally, the relationship between significant spatial transmission patterns and road network structure is analyzed. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach is able to effectively discover spatial transmission patterns from massive crime incidents data. Our results are expected to provide effective guidance for crime pattern analysis and even crime prevention.

Drug addiction and drug-related crime caused by drug dealing are serious problems for many countries. Such problems have gained urgency in China during recent years. However, there has been no research on the relationship between drug dealing and associated factors and its variation over space at a fine scale, such as the police station management area (PSMA), in China. Based on a seven-year data set obtained in ZG city, China, a geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model was employed to explore the spatial heterogeneity in the relationship between drug dealing and related risk factors, including social-demographic factors and environmental characteristics. The model results indicated that there were more drug dealings in the socially disorganized areas, typically associated with urban villages and floating population. Spatial accessibility had significant impacts on drug dealing. While the main road showed a negative effect, areas with more branch roads and bus stops tended to attract more drug dealings. Additionally, we found that these relationships were spatially nonstationary across space. This research represents the first in discerning spatial variation of drug dealing within a major Chinese city. These findings not only help policy makers better understand drug dealings from a geographical perspective, but can also help them to develop more targeted local intervention strategies.

Urban ecological efficiency stands as a pivotal indicator that mirrors the level of sustainable development within cities. To unravel the sustainable development status of Chinese cities and illuminate the factors impacting the diverse developments among them, this study leveraged the super-efficiency SBM (slacks-based measure) model to assess the ecological efficiency of 284 prefectural-level and above cities across China in 2019, divulging their spatial distribution. Furthermore, a GWR (geographically weighted regression) model was also employed to scrutinize the factors influencing the ecological efficiency of these cities. Key findings include: (1) The mean ecological efficiency of Chinese cities in 2019 stood at 0.555, signaling moderate urban sustainability, with southern cities outperforming their northern counterparts. (2) A pronounced spatial clustering of ecological efficiency was evident, featuring positive spillover effects around high-efficiency cities and conversely, negative spillover effects around low-efficiency cities. (3) Economic development and population density positively influenced urban ecological efficiency, while urbanization levels exhibited a negative impact. The influences of industrial structure, technological level, and opening-up level varied, showcasing both positive and negative impacts contingent upon the spatial disposition of the cities. Hence, policymakers are advised to recognize the spatial nuances in the impacts of distinct factors on urban ecological efficiency and tailor measures accordingly to fortify urban sustainability.

Whether newly implemented public transit stations influence the nearby crime pattern has been debated for years. In ZG City, China, 2 new subway lines and 20 new stations were implemented in 2017. This intervention allows us to test the plausible relationship between new public transit stations and thefts in the surrounding areas. We use the difference-in-differences (DID) model to assess the theft in the treatment and control areas before and after the implementation of the new stations, with necessary socioeconomic and land-use variables and time from the addition of the station being controlled. We also explicitly examine the impacts of the proximity of the stations and the Spring Festival on theft. The results suggest the following: (1) theft around the new subway stations significantly increases after the stations’ implementation, while the control area does not see much change in thefts; (2) proximity between the neighboring stations’ increases thefts; and (3) theft near the new stations significantly decreases during the month of the Spring Festival. This study contributes to the literature on the relationship between the subway system and crime, especially from a Chinese perspective. The finding of the research can bring insights to urban transit planning, allocation of the police force, and crime prevention.