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Construction development of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects (CRCBPs) is one of the community needs of many developing countries. Since the implementation of these projects is usually very costly, identifying and evaluating their Critical Risk Factors (CRFs) are of significant importance. Therefore, the current study aims to identify and prioritize CRFs of CRCBPs in the Iranian context. A descriptive-survey method was used in this research; the statistical population, selected based on the purposive sampling method, includes 30 construction experts with hands-on experience in CRCBPs. A questionnaire related to the risk identification stage was developed based on a detailed study of the research literature and also using the Delphi survey method; 82 various risks were finally identified. In order to confirm the opinions of experts in identifying the potential risks, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was used. In the first stage of data analysis, qualitative evaluation was performed by calculating the severity of risk effect and determining the cumulative risk index, based on which 25 CRFs of CRCBPs were identified for more accurate evaluation. At this stage, the identified CRFs were evaluated based on multi-criteria decision-making techniques and using the TOPSIS technique. Results show that the ten CRFs of CRCBPs are external threats from international relations, exchange rate changes, bank interest rate fluctuations, traffic licenses, access to skilled labor, changes in regional regulations, the condition of adjacent buildings, fluctuations and changes in inflation, failure to select a suitable and qualified consultant, and employer’s previous experiences and records. Obviously, the current study’s results and findings can be considered by CRCBPs in both the private and public sectors for proper effective risk identification, evaluation, and mitigation.
Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Mojtaba Khosravi; Matteo Cristofaro; Daniel W. M. Chan; Hadi Sarvari. Identification and Prioritization of Critical Risk Factors of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects: A Delphi Study Using the TOPSIS Method. Applied Sciences 2021, 11, 7906 .
AMA StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė, Mojtaba Khosravi, Matteo Cristofaro, Daniel W. M. Chan, Hadi Sarvari. Identification and Prioritization of Critical Risk Factors of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects: A Delphi Study Using the TOPSIS Method. Applied Sciences. 2021; 11 (17):7906.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė; Mojtaba Khosravi; Matteo Cristofaro; Daniel W. M. Chan; Hadi Sarvari. 2021. "Identification and Prioritization of Critical Risk Factors of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects: A Delphi Study Using the TOPSIS Method." Applied Sciences 11, no. 17: 7906.
All buildings require Repair and Maintenance (R&M) in their life cycle period. However, if R&M activities are not carried out properly, deterioration will occur, service life of buildings will be reduced, and maintenance costs will increase. Hence, selecting the appropriate R&M methods is pivotal, especially for developing countries, such as Iran, which are featured by highly constrained resources. The present study aims to identify and prioritize the main criteria for selecting the suitable R&M methods for Commercial Buildings (CBs), which is considered as a profound challenge for the Architecture, Engineering and Construction/Facility Management (AEC/FM) industry. A total of 20 senior experts in the AEC/FM industry and CBs in Iran were invited to participate in a Delphi survey to solicit their perceptions and opinions on the selection criteria. The total number of individual criteria identified is 16, which are further divided into five categories: human resources, flexibility and technical capability, risks, cost of maintenance, together with facilities and technology. Then, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) technique was applied to prioritize the identified criteria. Among the 5 main selection criteria, the cost of maintenance is the most important criterion for selecting appropriate R&M methods for CBs whereas the criterion of human resources (HR) was recognized as the least important.
Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Hadi Sarvari; Matteo Cristofaro; Daniel W. M. Chan. IDENTIFYING AND PRIORITIZING THE SELECTION CRITERIA OF APPROPRIATE REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE METHODS FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS. International Journal of Strategic Property Management 2021, 25, 413 -431.
AMA StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė, Hadi Sarvari, Matteo Cristofaro, Daniel W. M. Chan. IDENTIFYING AND PRIORITIZING THE SELECTION CRITERIA OF APPROPRIATE REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE METHODS FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS. International Journal of Strategic Property Management. 2021; 25 (5):413-431.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė; Hadi Sarvari; Matteo Cristofaro; Daniel W. M. Chan. 2021. "IDENTIFYING AND PRIORITIZING THE SELECTION CRITERIA OF APPROPRIATE REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE METHODS FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS." International Journal of Strategic Property Management 25, no. 5: 413-431.
Choosing proper projects has a great impact on organizational success. Firms have various factors for choosing projects based on their different objectives and strategies. The problem of optimization of projects’ risks and returns is among the most prevalent issues in project portfolio selection. In order to optimize and select proper projects, the amount of projects’ expected risks and returns must be evaluated correctly. Determining the relevant distribution is very important in achieving these expectations. In this research, various types of practical distributions were examined, and considering expected and realized risks, the effects of choosing the different distribution on estimation of risks on construction projects were studied.
Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Vahidreza Yousefi; Hamed Tabasi. Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory. Sustainability 2021, 13, 855 .
AMA StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė, Vahidreza Yousefi, Hamed Tabasi. Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (2):855.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė; Vahidreza Yousefi; Hamed Tabasi. 2021. "Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory." Sustainability 13, no. 2: 855.
In developing countries, governments are often unable to implement urban infrastructure construction projects (UICPs) on their own, mainly due to budget and financial resource limitations. The participation of the private sector, through public–private partnerships (PPPs), has been considered as an alternative effective method for increasing the efficiency and productivity of urban infrastructure development. However, in many developing countries such as those situated in the Middle East, attracting private sector investments for UICPs uncovers profound challenges that have not ever been comprehensively accounted for and prioritized. To fill this knowledge gap, this study seeks to determine and prioritize the major barriers and risks faced by governments and urban managers in attracting private sector investments through the PPP schemes launched by developing countries in the Middle East. Based on a Delphi study conducted in Iran as an example, the opinions of 60 UICPs experts in both the public and private sectors were collected and analyzed. Results show that technical and organizational barriers and risks were perceived as the most important to private sector participation, followed by economic and financial barriers and risks, and then political and legal barriers and risks.
Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Hadi Sarvari; Daniel Chan; Matteo Cristofaro. Assessing the Barriers and Risks to Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure Construction Projects in Developing Countries of Middle East. Sustainability 2020, 13, 153 .
AMA StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė, Hadi Sarvari, Daniel Chan, Matteo Cristofaro. Assessing the Barriers and Risks to Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure Construction Projects in Developing Countries of Middle East. Sustainability. 2020; 13 (1):153.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė; Hadi Sarvari; Daniel Chan; Matteo Cristofaro. 2020. "Assessing the Barriers and Risks to Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure Construction Projects in Developing Countries of Middle East." Sustainability 13, no. 1: 153.
In this study, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian network methods are combined to present a structure for assessing the aggregated impact of risks on the completion time of a construction project. Construction projects often encounter different risks which affect and prevent their desired completion at the predicted time and budget. The probability of construction project success is increased in the case of controlling influential risks. On the other hand, interactions among risks lead to the increase of aggregated impact of risks. This fact requires paying attention to assessment and management of project aggregated risk before and during the implementation phase. The developed structure of this article considers the interactions among risks to provide an indicator for estimating the effects of risks, so that the shortage of extant models including the lack of attention to estimate the aggregated impact caused by risks and the intensifying impacts can be evaluated. Moreover, the introduced structure is implemented in an industrial case study in order to validate the model, cover the functional aspect of the problem, and explain the procedure of structure implementation in detail.
Ali Namazian; Siamak Haji Yakhchali; Vahidreza Yousefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Combining Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesian Networks Methods for Assessing Completion Time of Projects under Risk. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2019, 16, 5024 .
AMA StyleAli Namazian, Siamak Haji Yakhchali, Vahidreza Yousefi, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Combining Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesian Networks Methods for Assessing Completion Time of Projects under Risk. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16 (24):5024.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAli Namazian; Siamak Haji Yakhchali; Vahidreza Yousefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2019. "Combining Monte Carlo Simulation and Bayesian Networks Methods for Assessing Completion Time of Projects under Risk." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 24: 5024.
In recent years, the Zayanderood River in Isfahan-Iran has been encountered by hydrological imbalance and drought. Literature review shows that long-term climate change, drought, and disruption of the river's water supply has led to depletion of underground aquifers and, consequently, gradual subsidence of the river and serious damage to old buildings and structures along the riverbank. This fact would be followed up by adverse environmental, social, and economic effect that could threaten the sustainable development of urban space. Therefore, it is necessary to use efficient risk identification and assessment approaches toward a more effective risk management. The goal of this study is to identify and prioritize the risks of river drought with regards to all three sustainable development areas including environmental, social, and economic. The research methodology was a mixed field method that included a set of questionnaires and interviews. To evaluate collected data, the analytic network process (ANP) method was used. Eighteen important risks were identified. Based on the results, decrease in the groundwater level, climate change, and gradual soil degradation were ranked first, second, and third, respectively. As this study examined the impacts of river drought on all three areas of sustainable development simultaneously and comprehensively, it is expected that the results will fill the existing theoretical and practical gap affecting improvements in assessment and management of sustainable development risks.
Hadi Sarvari; Mansooreh Rakhshanifar; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Daniel W.M. Chan; Michael Beer. A Risk Based Approach to Evaluating the Impacts of Zayanderood Drought on Sustainable Development Indicators of Riverside Urban in Isfahan-Iran. Sustainability 2019, 11, 6797 .
AMA StyleHadi Sarvari, Mansooreh Rakhshanifar, Jolanta Tamošaitienė, Daniel W.M. Chan, Michael Beer. A Risk Based Approach to Evaluating the Impacts of Zayanderood Drought on Sustainable Development Indicators of Riverside Urban in Isfahan-Iran. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (23):6797.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHadi Sarvari; Mansooreh Rakhshanifar; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Daniel W.M. Chan; Michael Beer. 2019. "A Risk Based Approach to Evaluating the Impacts of Zayanderood Drought on Sustainable Development Indicators of Riverside Urban in Isfahan-Iran." Sustainability 11, no. 23: 6797.
This study proposes a framework for the allocation of risk in public private partnerships (PPP) projects. Its contribution lies in the recognition and incorporation of risks introduced by project stakeholders, and as articulated by the principal-agent theory (PAT). The framework assesses risks and routes these risks to those parties best equipped to mitigate their impact on the project. This allocation of risk is facilitated by a thirteen-step process. The practical benefit of this study lies in outlining a clear, systematic method for allocating risk efficiently to both the government and private enterprise parties of the project. In so doing, risk mitigation can be expected to improve project performance, optimize stakeholder goals, and enhance sustainability objectives, including improved operational life-cycle efficiency and elevated social and community benefits.
Asheem Shrestha; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Igor Martek; M Reza Hosseini; David J Edwards. A Principal-Agent Theory Perspective on PPP Risk Allocation. Sustainability 2019, 11, 6455 .
AMA StyleAsheem Shrestha, Jolanta Tamošaitienė, Igor Martek, M Reza Hosseini, David J Edwards. A Principal-Agent Theory Perspective on PPP Risk Allocation. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (22):6455.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAsheem Shrestha; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Igor Martek; M Reza Hosseini; David J Edwards. 2019. "A Principal-Agent Theory Perspective on PPP Risk Allocation." Sustainability 11, no. 22: 6455.
One of the goals of sustainable development is to achieve economic and social growth according to environmental criteria. Nowadays, impact assessment is an efficient decision making method in planning and management with environmental perspectives. Environmental risk assessment is a tool to reduce the impacts and consequences of various activities on the environment in order to achieve sustainable development. One of the commonly used environmental risk assessment methods is the probability–impact matrix method, which is known as a quantitative method for risk assessment of projects. In this method, numerical estimates of probability and impact of risk occurrence are very difficult, and these factors are associated with uncertainty. When uncertainty exists, data integration is of great importance, for which the fuzzy inference system and evidence theory are known as effective methods. Unavailability of experts’ opinion and the exponential growth of the number of required fuzzy rules associated with the risk factors are two drawbacks of fuzzy inference. Dempster–Shafer’s theory of evidence is one of the popular theories used in intelligent systems for modeling and reasoning under uncertainty and inaccuracy. In this paper, an evidential model for project environmental risk assessment is proposed based on the Dempster–Shafer theory, which is capable of taking into account the uncertainties. The proposed model is used to assess the environmental risks of Maroon oil pipelines in Isfahan. In addition, the proposed model is used in the case of tunneling risk assessment taken from the subject literature. To evaluate the validity of the proposed evidential model, the results are compared in two case studies, with the results of the conventional risk assessment method and the fuzzy inference system method. The comparative results show that the proposed model has a high potential for project risk assessment under an uncertain environment.
Seyed Morteza Hatefi; Mohammad Ehsan Basiri; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. An Evidential Model for Environmental Risk Assessment in Projects Using Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence. Sustainability 2019, 11, 6329 .
AMA StyleSeyed Morteza Hatefi, Mohammad Ehsan Basiri, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. An Evidential Model for Environmental Risk Assessment in Projects Using Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (22):6329.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSeyed Morteza Hatefi; Mohammad Ehsan Basiri; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2019. "An Evidential Model for Environmental Risk Assessment in Projects Using Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence." Sustainability 11, no. 22: 6329.
This paper attempted to calculate the market risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange by estimating the Conditional Value at Risk. Since the Conditional Value at Risk is a tail-related measure, Extreme Value Theory has been utilized to estimate the risk more accurately. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models were used to model the volatility-clustering feature, and to estimate the parameters of the model, the Maximum Likelihood method was applied. The results of the study showed that in the estimation of model parameters, assuming T-student distribution function gave better results than the Normal distribution function. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used for backtesting the Conditional Value at Risk model, and in the end, the performance of different models, in the estimation of this measure, was compared.
Hamed Tabasi; Vahidreza Yousefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Foroogh Ghasemi. Estimating Conditional Value at Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on the Extreme Value Theory Using GARCH Models. Administrative Sciences 2019, 9, 40 .
AMA StyleHamed Tabasi, Vahidreza Yousefi, Jolanta Tamošaitienė, Foroogh Ghasemi. Estimating Conditional Value at Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on the Extreme Value Theory Using GARCH Models. Administrative Sciences. 2019; 9 (2):40.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHamed Tabasi; Vahidreza Yousefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Foroogh Ghasemi. 2019. "Estimating Conditional Value at Risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange Based on the Extreme Value Theory Using GARCH Models." Administrative Sciences 9, no. 2: 40.
Globally, the efficiency of the construction sector has declined around the world over the past 30 years. The main principles aimed at the improvement of the situation are based on lean construction. The concept of lean construction can be effectively used in the strategic process to improve waste reduction as well as cost and time efficiency, which results in positive outcomes such as environmental protection, economy and time-saving. Lean construction practices help to achieve significant benefits. However, many organisations still find it difficult to successfully and correctly integrate lean concepts. The research literature indicates that the construction industry has encountered poor implementation and integration of these concepts. Lean construction has eight main techniques for increasing productivity in implementing customer requirements in the construction industry. Having in mind that lean is the key requirement for gaining construction productivity, this paper provides the basic fundamental knowledge of lean construction. Also, it shows how to get the most effective results by applying the Last Planner System technique. The described case study demonstrates the integration of the Last Planner System technique into the project.
Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Tomas Starta. Integration of LEAN Last Planner System in construction processes. 17th International Colloquium „Sustainable decisions in built environment 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė, Tomas Starta. Integration of LEAN Last Planner System in construction processes. 17th International Colloquium „Sustainable decisions in built environment. 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė; Tomas Starta. 2019. "Integration of LEAN Last Planner System in construction processes." 17th International Colloquium „Sustainable decisions in built environment , no. : 1.
The article focuses on the identification and classification of key risk management criteria that represent the value creation and protection aspects for the construction industry. Nowadays, the assessment of the risk level of a construction project is especially important for the quality of construction projects as well as the growth of enterprises and the sector. To establish the most important criteria for the successful growth of the construction sector including value creation and protection aspects are developed.
Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Miglė Lapeikytė. The risk assessment model for construction projects including value creation and protection aspects. 17th International Colloquium „Sustainable decisions in built environment 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė, Miglė Lapeikytė. The risk assessment model for construction projects including value creation and protection aspects. 17th International Colloquium „Sustainable decisions in built environment. 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJolanta Tamošaitienė; Miglė Lapeikytė. 2019. "The risk assessment model for construction projects including value creation and protection aspects." 17th International Colloquium „Sustainable decisions in built environment , no. : 1.
In a situation of growing water demand, inadequate public funding, poor asset condition and lack of maintenance in developing countries, public-private partnerships (PPPs) play an important role in the development of infrastructure, such as water supply and sewerage services. The purpose of this study is to develop a quantitative approach to appropriate risk allocation, with attention directed to the impact of positive and negative factors in water and sewerage projects. The paper presents a hybrid SWARA-COPRAS approach to examine risk allocation, particularly for PPP water supply and sewerage projects in the context of Malaysia. In addition to PPP infrastructure projects, the approach has the potential to be adapted to other applications. The proposed method enables decision makers to utilise qualitative linguistic terms in the allocation of risk between the public and private sector, and to select the best strategy for risk allocation in a contract. Finally, 24 significant risks were identified: six risks would preferably be allocated to the public sector, while seven risks would be assigned to the private sector, and eleven risks would preferably be shared by both parties. The finding from this study can help the government of Malaysia to determine an attractive political strategy for private investors to support a PPP water and sewerage infrastructure project.
Alireza Valipour; Nordin Yahaya; Norhazilan Md Noor; Iman Valipour; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. A SWARA-COPRAS APPROACH TO THE ALLOCATION OF RISK IN WATER AND SEWERAGE PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS IN MALAYSIA. International Journal of Strategic Property Management 2019, 23, 269 -283.
AMA StyleAlireza Valipour, Nordin Yahaya, Norhazilan Md Noor, Iman Valipour, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. A SWARA-COPRAS APPROACH TO THE ALLOCATION OF RISK IN WATER AND SEWERAGE PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS IN MALAYSIA. International Journal of Strategic Property Management. 2019; 23 (4):269-283.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlireza Valipour; Nordin Yahaya; Norhazilan Md Noor; Iman Valipour; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2019. "A SWARA-COPRAS APPROACH TO THE ALLOCATION OF RISK IN WATER AND SEWERAGE PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS IN MALAYSIA." International Journal of Strategic Property Management 23, no. 4: 269-283.
Construction projects are associated with a number of uncertainties due to their expanse, complex nature, uniqueness, and dynamic states. Risks in construction projects are, indeed, the events or uncertain situations that can have negative or positive consequences on the project objectives. Many of the risks inherent in construction projects affect each other. For example, the time risk in construction projects can affect the cost risk and vice versa. The intertwined relations between risk factors are ignored in the traditional construction risk assessment methods. To fulfill this gap, this paper proposes an integrated fuzzy DEMATEL-fuzzy ANP model to evaluate construction projects and their overall risks by considering intertwined relations among risk factors. Fuzzy DEMATEL is used to determine the interrelationships and interdependencies among risk factors. The network structure for implementing the fuzzy ANP method is extracted based on the results of fuzzy DEMATEL. The fuzzy ANP is applied to assess the relative importance of risk factors and alternatives and prioritize construction projects. The proposed integrated model is used to evaluate five construction projects based on risk factors in Isfahan, Iran. The results of applying the integrated model reveal that the time, cost and safety risks with the weight values of 0.056, 0.038, and 0.034 are the most important factors among construction risks, respectively. The results reveal that the proposed model can help managers to evaluate the overall risks of construction projects, and select the best project that has the lowest risk.
Seyed Morteza Hatefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. AN INTEGRATED FUZZY DEMATEL-FUZZY ANP MODEL FOR EVALUATING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BY CONSIDERING INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG RISK FACTORS. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 2019, 25, 114 -131.
AMA StyleSeyed Morteza Hatefi, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. AN INTEGRATED FUZZY DEMATEL-FUZZY ANP MODEL FOR EVALUATING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BY CONSIDERING INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG RISK FACTORS. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management. 2019; 25 (2):114-131.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSeyed Morteza Hatefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2019. "AN INTEGRATED FUZZY DEMATEL-FUZZY ANP MODEL FOR EVALUATING CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BY CONSIDERING INTERRELATIONSHIPS AMONG RISK FACTORS." Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 25, no. 2: 114-131.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is inhibited by political risk. Developing countries tend to experience higher levels of such risk, yet need foreign capital to generate growth. Moreover, foreign direct investment in infrastructure (FDII) – fundamental to economic growth – is particularly sensitive to political risk; characterized by high capital investment, longer investment periods, while especially exposed to mercurial shifts in government policy. Yet, no comprehensive study has been undertaken that measures the impact of political risk on FDII in developing countries. This paper addresses this lack. Twelve political risk indicators, drawn from the International Country Risk Guide Index, are used to quantify the political risk inherent to 90 developing countries, over the period 2006 to 2015. An Arellano-Bond GMM estimator is developed which measures the dollar value impact of risk on both FDI and FDII. A comparison of results confirms that FDII is generally more sensitive to risk than is FDI, however the influence of risk categories is found to vary significantly. The findings can be expected to inform infrastructure policy-makers and foreign investors alike on the dollar-impact of determinable risk levels on foreign-funded projects, and in so doing better facilitate corrective risk mitigation strategies.
Weiling Jiang; Igor Martek; M. Reza Hosseini; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Chuan Chen. FOREIGN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL OF POLITICAL RISK IMPACTS. Technological and Economic Development of Economy 2019, 25, 134 -167.
AMA StyleWeiling Jiang, Igor Martek, M. Reza Hosseini, Jolanta Tamošaitienė, Chuan Chen. FOREIGN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL OF POLITICAL RISK IMPACTS. Technological and Economic Development of Economy. 2019; 25 (2):134-167.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWeiling Jiang; Igor Martek; M. Reza Hosseini; Jolanta Tamošaitienė; Chuan Chen. 2019. "FOREIGN INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODEL OF POLITICAL RISK IMPACTS." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 25, no. 2: 134-167.
In this research, the concept of Duration with a new application in project management has been defined. The Duration of each project provides the project manager with a combined measure containing concepts of return, cost and time of the project. Further in this article, the changes in project return, based on different assumptions such as discount rate, have been examined. To examine the effect of the changes in these factors, the Monte Carlo simulation has been used. The relationship between these factors is nonlinear which reflects the great importance of investment on appropriate risk management systems. The data from a set of construction projects have been used in order to verify the results of this study. Similar relationships can be expected to exist in other industries as well.
Vahidreza Yousefi; Siamak Haji Yakhchali; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Application of Duration Measure in Quantifying the Sensitivity of Project Returns to Changes in Discount Rates. Administrative Sciences 2019, 9, 13 .
AMA StyleVahidreza Yousefi, Siamak Haji Yakhchali, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Application of Duration Measure in Quantifying the Sensitivity of Project Returns to Changes in Discount Rates. Administrative Sciences. 2019; 9 (1):13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleVahidreza Yousefi; Siamak Haji Yakhchali; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2019. "Application of Duration Measure in Quantifying the Sensitivity of Project Returns to Changes in Discount Rates." Administrative Sciences 9, no. 1: 13.
Recently, risk assessment has become one of the most challenging issues in the areas of construction and public-private partnerships (PPPs). To address risk assessment issues, various decision-making techniques have been proposed, each with its own specific disadvantages and advantages. This paper investigates step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA), complex proportional assessment (COPRAS), fuzzy analytic network process (FANP), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS), simple additive weighting (SAW) and evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) in order to define how various multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) methods compare when used for risk assessment in PPP projects. For this study, 5 risk assessment criteria and 10 types of risk used in Iranian highway PPP projects were selected. Four suitability and applicability tests were used to measure agreement between the rankings derived from the MADM methods. Final results show that all techniques had approximately the same rankings of risk assessment, with the SWARA, COPRAS, and EDAS methods performing slightly better. The findings of this study will help the parties in PPP and construction projects to select the best risk assessment method.
Alireza Valipour; Hadi Sarvari; Jolanta Tamošaitiene. Risk Assessment in PPP Projects by Applying Different MCDM Methods and Comparative Results Analysis. Administrative Sciences 2018, 8, 80 .
AMA StyleAlireza Valipour, Hadi Sarvari, Jolanta Tamošaitiene. Risk Assessment in PPP Projects by Applying Different MCDM Methods and Comparative Results Analysis. Administrative Sciences. 2018; 8 (4):80.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlireza Valipour; Hadi Sarvari; Jolanta Tamošaitiene. 2018. "Risk Assessment in PPP Projects by Applying Different MCDM Methods and Comparative Results Analysis." Administrative Sciences 8, no. 4: 80.
The complexity and dynamics of the executive projects have coped contractors with substantial hazards and losses. Project risk management is a critical tool for authority to improve its performance and secure the success of the organization. However, a number of standards and approaches have been developed to formulate the projects based on their risks. The Elena guideline is a systematic standard developed by Iran Project Management Association. This guideline provides the full cycle of the risk management process. Risk evaluation is the key part of the risk management process. On the other hand, different techniques have been developed to model a risk evaluation problem. Fuzzy inference system is one of the most popular techniques that is capable of handling all types of the uncertainty involved in projects. This paper proposes a three-stage approach based on the fuzzy inference system under the environment of the Elena guideline to cope with the risky projects. Finally, an illustrative example of the risk evaluation is presented to demonstrate the potential application of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model evaluates the risky projects efficiently and effectively.
Pezhman Asadi; Javad Rezaeian Zeidi; Toraj Mojibi; Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. PROJECT RISK EVALUATION BY USING A NEW FUZZY MODEL BASED ON ELENA GUIDELINE. JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 2018, 24, 284 -300.
AMA StylePezhman Asadi, Javad Rezaeian Zeidi, Toraj Mojibi, Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. PROJECT RISK EVALUATION BY USING A NEW FUZZY MODEL BASED ON ELENA GUIDELINE. JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT. 2018; 24 (4):284-300.
Chicago/Turabian StylePezhman Asadi; Javad Rezaeian Zeidi; Toraj Mojibi; Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2018. "PROJECT RISK EVALUATION BY USING A NEW FUZZY MODEL BASED ON ELENA GUIDELINE." JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 24, no. 4: 284-300.
An organization’s strategic objectives are accomplished through portfolios. However, the materialization of portfolio risks may affect a portfolio’s sustainable success and the achievement of those objectives. Moreover, project interdependencies and cause–effect relationships between risks create complexity for portfolio risk analysis. This paper presents a model using Bayesian network (BN) methodology for modeling and analyzing portfolio risks. To develop this model, first, portfolio-level risks and risks caused by project interdependencies are identified. Then, based on their cause–effect relationships all portfolio risks are organized in a BN. Conditional probability distributions for this network are specified and the Bayesian networks method is used to estimate the probability of portfolio risk. This model was applied to a portfolio of a construction company located in Iran and proved effective in analyzing portfolio risk probability. Furthermore, the model provided valuable information for selecting a portfolio’s projects and making strategic decisions.
Foroogh Ghasemi; Mohammad Hossein Mahmoudi Sari; Vahidreza Yousefi; Reza Falsafi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks. Sustainability 2018, 10, 1609 .
AMA StyleForoogh Ghasemi, Mohammad Hossein Mahmoudi Sari, Vahidreza Yousefi, Reza Falsafi, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (5):1609.
Chicago/Turabian StyleForoogh Ghasemi; Mohammad Hossein Mahmoudi Sari; Vahidreza Yousefi; Reza Falsafi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2018. "Project Portfolio Risk Identification and Analysis, Considering Project Risk Interactions and Using Bayesian Networks." Sustainability 10, no. 5: 1609.
Due to the increasing population and earth pollution, managing construction and infrastructure projects with less damage to the environment and less pollution is very important. Sustainable development aims at reducing damage to the environment, making projects economical, and increasing comfort and social justice. This study proposes fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and improved grey relational analysis (GRA) to assess construction projects based on the sustainable development criteria. For doing so, sustainable development criteria are first identified in economic, social, and environmental dimensions using literature review, and are then customized for urban construction projects using experts’ opinions. After designing questionnaires and collecting data, fuzzy AHP is used for determining the importance of sustainable development criteria and their subcriteria. Then, improved GRA is employed for assessing six recreational, commercial, and official centers in Isfahan regarding the weights of criteria and subcriteria. The proposed fuzzy AHP-improved GRA help us to prioritize construction projects based on the sustainable development criteria. The results of applying fuzzy AHP show that the weights of economic, social, and environmental criteria are equal to 0.330, 0.321, and 0.349, respectively, which are close to each other. This means that the importance of all three aspects of sustainability is almost equal to each other. Furthermore, “Having profits for the society”, “Increasing social justice”, and “Adherence to environmental policies” are identified as the most important indicators of sustainable development in terms of economic, social, and environmental aspects, respectively. Finally, the results of employing improved GRA determine Negin Chaharbagh recreational and commercial complex as the best project.
Seyed Morteza Hatefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Construction Projects Assessment Based on the Sustainable Development Criteria by an Integrated Fuzzy AHP and Improved GRA Model. Sustainability 2018, 10, 991 .
AMA StyleSeyed Morteza Hatefi, Jolanta Tamošaitienė. Construction Projects Assessment Based on the Sustainable Development Criteria by an Integrated Fuzzy AHP and Improved GRA Model. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (4):991.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSeyed Morteza Hatefi; Jolanta Tamošaitienė. 2018. "Construction Projects Assessment Based on the Sustainable Development Criteria by an Integrated Fuzzy AHP and Improved GRA Model." Sustainability 10, no. 4: 991.
Multi-stakeholder based construction projects are subject to potential risk factors due to dynamic business environment and stakeholders’ lack of knowledge. When solving project management tasks, it is necessary to quantify the main risk indicators of the projects. Managing these requires suitable risk mitigation strategies to evaluate and analyse their severity. The existence of information asymmetry also causes difficulties with achieving Pareto efficiency. Hence, to ensure balanced satisfaction of all participants, risk evaluation of these projects can be considered as an important part of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) process. In real-life problems, evaluation of project risks is often uncertain and even incomplete, and the prevailing methodologies fail to handle such situations. To address the problem, this paper extends the analytical network process (ANP) methodology in the D numbers domain to handle three types of ambiguous information’s, viz. complete, uncertain, and incomplete, and assesses the weight of risk criteria. The D numbers based approach overcomes the deficiencies of the exclusiveness hypothesis and completeness constraint of Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory. Here, preference ratings of the decision matrix for each decision-maker are determined using a D numbers extended consistent fuzzy preference relation (D-CFPR). An extended multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) method in D numbers is then developed to rank and select the best alternative risk response strategy. Finally, an illustrative example from construction sector is presented to check the feasibility of the proposed approach. For checking the reliability of alternative ranking, a comparative analysis is performed with different MCDM approaches in D numbers domain. Based on different criteria weights, a sensitivity analysis of obtained ranking of the hybrid D-ANP-MABAC model is performed to verify the robustness of the proposed method.
Kajal Chatterjee; Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas; Jolanta Tamosaitiene; Krishnendu Adhikary; Samarjit Kar. A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects. Symmetry 2018, 10, 46 .
AMA StyleKajal Chatterjee, Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas, Jolanta Tamosaitiene, Krishnendu Adhikary, Samarjit Kar. A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects. Symmetry. 2018; 10 (2):46.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKajal Chatterjee; Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas; Jolanta Tamosaitiene; Krishnendu Adhikary; Samarjit Kar. 2018. "A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects." Symmetry 10, no. 2: 46.