Heatwave events are of major concern in the global context, since they can significantly impact ecosystems, economies and societies. For this reason, more detailed analyses of the characteristics and trends of heatwaves represent a priority that cannot be neglected. In this study, the interannual and decadal variability of seven indices of heatwaves were investigated during the warmest period of the year (June–August) by using an enhanced resolution reanalysis model (ERA5-Land) over a 71-year period (1950–2020) for the area of Greece. Heatwaves were defined as periods where two thresholds, based on a modified version of the Excess Heat Factor index (EHF) and the 95th percentile of the maximum daily temperature, were exceeded for at least three consecutive days. Greece experiences almost yearly 0.7 heatwaves on average during the whole period of study, while this value has increased by ~80% since 1990. Trend analysis revealed that heatwaves have become more frequent, longer, and more intense since 1950. The percentage of the land area that experiences at least one heatwave per year was almost doubled in the examined period. An increasing trend in the number of heatwaves that occurred in June was identified.
The Mediterranean faces frequent heavy precipitation, deadly heatwaves, and wildfires fueled by its climate. Greece, with its complex topography, experiences severe and extreme weather events that have escalated in recent years and are projected to continue rising under future climate conditions. This paper analyzes severe weather events and trends in Greece from 2010 to 2023, leveraging data from an expanded network of weather stations spanning across Greece, as well as long-term meteorological data from the reference weather station in the center of Athens. The focus includes analysis of heat waves, intense rainfall and droughts, thunderstorms, hail, tornadoes, and fire weather conditions. The societal impact of severe weather events is also discussed. The paper aims to provide both long-term (1901–2023) and recent year analyses (2010–2023). The main results show that between 2010 and 2023, Greece experienced: nearly one heatwave per summer; heavy rainfall events, most common in winter and autumn, showing a significant increase, particularly in the eastern Aegean and western continental Greece; dry spells, which are longest in southern Greece; thunderstorm and hail events peaking in spring and summer; fire weather conditions and risk peaking in southern Greece. Finally, societal impacts from weather hazards have increased in Greece over the past 14 years, with flash floods being the most frequent and damaging events, while public preparedness and effective risk communication remain low.
A 10‐year data set of intense Mediterranean cyclones was used for a twofold objective: first to quantify the cyclone's contribution to lightning occurrence in the region and second to investigate potential connection of lightning with cyclones intensity. For this reason, we used cyclone tracks, lightning observations and reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, for the 10‐year period of 2005–2014. Results showed that intense cyclones provoke <10% of lightning activity over the Mediterranean Sea, however, in certain areas, cyclone contributions might reach 20–30%.The intense cyclones, which are associated with lightning activity close to their centre, constitute about one third (36%) of the total number of tracked cyclones. Therefore two cyclone groups are identified: those associated with and those without lightning. The first group presents in average 35% more ice and 15% more liquid cloud water content within the upper and lower atmospheric levels, respectively, while is related to approximately three times greater values of convective available potential energy in average. Further analysis shows that the intensities of the cyclones in the two groups present no significant differences, suggesting that deep convection may not be a major mechanism for the occurrence of intense Mediterranean cyclones. Finally, we show that cyclones associated with lightning present the highest lightning activity about 6 h prior to the cyclones maximum intensity.
This paper is devoted to the discussion of the practice of storm naming that has been initiated in January 2017 for the first time in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Namely the METEO Unit at NOA, taking into consideration that storm naming facilitates meteorologists, researchers, authorities, civil protection officers, the media and citizens to communicate the forecasts of high-impact weather events, started storm naming in January 2017 and has named 35 storms up to September 2021. The criteria of storm naming are discussed, and a synopsis of the events is presented. The monthly distribution shows that 57% of the named storms occurred during the winter period, with January being the month with the highest percentage of occurrence of named storms (28%). The impact of storm naming on citizens risk perception and increased awareness has been also assessed through an internet-based questionnaire that was launched on the fourth year of the storm naming practice in Greece. Overall, results indicate a significant impact of storm naming on the readiness of citizens through the activation of perceptual and cognitive mechanisms.
In recent years, a considerable body of research has demonstrated the suitability of global and regional reanalysis data for human-biometeorological applications. These applications include the assessment of the outdoor thermal environment and the investigation of its relation to human health, especially in areas where the spatial coverage of surface observational networks is sparse. Here, we present the first comprehensive evaluation of the most recent pan-European regional reanalysis, namely the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA) dataset at 5.5 km spatial resolution, in terms of simulating the observed human bioclimate, as expressed by the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) that is computed through the RayMan Pro model, and its meteorological drivers. The validation was performed over Greece using up to 11 years of records of 2 m air temperature and relative humidity, 10 m wind speed and global solar radiation derived from 35 sites of the nationwide network of surface weather stations operated by the METEO Unit at the National Observatory of Athens. The ERA5-Land dataset at ~9 km spatial resolution, which represents the current state-of-the-art reanalysis, was also compared against the same observations. Our findings show that the CERRA dataset performs significantly better compared to the ERA5-Land reanalysis with respect to the replication of the examined meteorological variables and mPET. The added value of the CERRA data is particularly evident during the warm period of the year and in regions that are characterized by complex topography and/or proximity to the coastline. Combining the CERRA dataset with population and mortality data, we further showcase its applicability for human-biometeorological and heat–health studies at a local scale, using the regional unit of Rethymno (Crete) as a pilot area for the analysis.
The Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) is characterized by increased vulnerability to river/stream flooding. However, impact-oriented, operational fluvial flood forecasting is far away from maturity in the region. The current paper presents the first attempt at introducing an operational impact-based warning system in the area, which is founded on the coupling of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model with an advanced spatially-explicit hydrological model. The system’s modeling methodology and forecasting scheme are presented, as well as prototype results, which were derived under a pre-operational mode. Future developments and challenges needed to be addressed in terms of validating the system and increasing its efficiency are also discussed. This communication highlights that standard approaches used in operational weather forecasting in the SEM for providing flood-related information and alerts can, and should, be replaced by advanced coupled hydrometeorological systems, which can be implemented without a significant cost on the operational character of the provided services. This is of great importance in establishing effective early warning services for fluvial flooding in the region.