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Medium size developing countries like Chile that commit to decarbonization goals need to carefully assess the trade-offs associated to their intensity and timing, since most of the technologies required will be absorbed, not produced, by these countries. A rapid expansion of renewables in the Chilean energy matrix, mostly thanks to exceptional solar and wind resources, combined with a rapid decrease in the cost of renewable energy technologies, intensified current policy debates to reduce the role of coal, which is the largest source of CO2 emissions in the generation mix. Recently, the main generation companies in Chile made a voluntary commitment to not invest in new coal projects that do not include carbon capture and storage systems. In addition, the Chilean government announced its plans to phase out coal plants completely by 2040. In this context, the aim of this research is to study the economy-wide and emission reduction impacts of different decarbonization paths in the Chilean power sector. For this purpose, we consider dynamic simulations using a new energy-oriented version of the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)- General Equilibrium Model for the Chilean Economy (ECOGEM)-Chile which is soft linked to the bottom-up engineering energy model. The results show the major impacts under both the business as usual (BAU) scenario and the coal phase-out scenario. Additionally, the study discusses to what extent the ambitious decarbonization goals of the Chilean government are coherent with the current technological limitations.
Shahriyar Nasirov; Raúl O’Ryan; Héctor Osorio. Decarbonization Tradeoffs: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling Analysis for the Chilean Power Sector. Sustainability 2020, 12, 8248 .
AMA StyleShahriyar Nasirov, Raúl O’Ryan, Héctor Osorio. Decarbonization Tradeoffs: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling Analysis for the Chilean Power Sector. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (19):8248.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShahriyar Nasirov; Raúl O’Ryan; Héctor Osorio. 2020. "Decarbonization Tradeoffs: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling Analysis for the Chilean Power Sector." Sustainability 12, no. 19: 8248.
Over the last decade, a high dependency on carbon-intensive fuels in the Chilean power sector has led to environmental concerns, particularly regarding rapid growth in CO2 emissions. More recently, the power sector has experienced significant structural changes with a rapid expansion of renewables in the energy matrix, and this trend is expected to cause significant variations in future CO2-emission baseline scenarios. To investigate the economy-wide impact of renewable energy expansions in Chile’s energy mix, this research, based on a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, examines different CO2 emission baseline scenarios. However, because traditional CGE modeling approaches cannot capture the impact of a sector’s recent structural changes, we present a step-by-step approach to incorporate different energy matrices from an external engineering bottom-up model into the CGE model. The results indicate that the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, in which structural changes are not considered, significantly overstates expected emissions. Conversely, considering structural changes in our CGE model shows Chile advancing towards its declared Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, the methodology implemented in the study has the advantage of being a simple integrated approach that is coherent with current modeling capacities in many developing contexts.
Raúl O’Ryan; Shahriyar Nasirov; Andrés Álvarez-Espinosa. Renewable energy expansion in the Chilean power market: A dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach to determine CO2 emission baselines. Journal of Cleaner Production 2019, 247, 119645 .
AMA StyleRaúl O’Ryan, Shahriyar Nasirov, Andrés Álvarez-Espinosa. Renewable energy expansion in the Chilean power market: A dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach to determine CO2 emission baselines. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2019; 247 ():119645.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRaúl O’Ryan; Shahriyar Nasirov; Andrés Álvarez-Espinosa. 2019. "Renewable energy expansion in the Chilean power market: A dynamic general equilibrium modeling approach to determine CO2 emission baselines." Journal of Cleaner Production 247, no. : 119645.
Raul Oryan; Cecilia Ibarra. Environmental Policy in Latin America. Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance 2018, 1722 -1730.
AMA StyleRaul Oryan, Cecilia Ibarra. Environmental Policy in Latin America. Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance. 2018; ():1722-1730.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRaul Oryan; Cecilia Ibarra. 2018. "Environmental Policy in Latin America." Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance , no. : 1722-1730.
Multilateral efforts are essential to an effective response to climate change, but individual nations define climate action policy by translating local and global objectives into adaptation and mitigation actions. We propose a conceptual framework to explore opportunities for polycentric climate governance, understanding polycentricity as a property that encompasses the potential for coordinating multiple centers of semiautonomous decision-making. We assert that polycentrism engages a diverse array of public and private actors for a more effective approach to reducing the threat of climate change. In this way, polycentrism may provide an appropriate strategy for addressing the many challenges of climate governance in the Anthropocene. We review two Chilean case studies: Chile’s Nationally Determined Contribution on Climate Change and the Chilean National Climate Change Action Plan. Our examination demonstrates that Chile has included a diversity of actors and directed significant financial resources to both processes. The central government coordinated both of these processes, showing the key role of interventions at higher jurisdictional levels in orienting institutional change to improve strategic planning and better address climate change. Both processes also provide some evidence of knowledge co-production, while at the same time remaining primarily driven by state agencies and directed by technical experts. Efforts to overcome governance weaknesses should focus on further strengthening existing practices for climate change responses, establishing new institutions, and promoting decision-making that incorporates diverse social actors and multiple levels of governance. In particular, stronger inclusion of local level actors provides an opportunity to enhance polycentric modes of governance and improve climate change responses. Fully capitalizing on this opportunity requires establishing durable communication channels between different levels of governance.
Rodrigo Antonio Arriagada; Paulina Aldunce; Gustavo Blanco; Cecilia Ibarra; Pilar Moraga; Laura Nahuelhual; Raúl O’Ryan; Anahí Urquiza; Laura Gallardo. Climate change governance in the anthropocene: emergence of polycentrism in Chile. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 2018, 6, 1 .
AMA StyleRodrigo Antonio Arriagada, Paulina Aldunce, Gustavo Blanco, Cecilia Ibarra, Pilar Moraga, Laura Nahuelhual, Raúl O’Ryan, Anahí Urquiza, Laura Gallardo. Climate change governance in the anthropocene: emergence of polycentrism in Chile. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. 2018; 6 (1):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRodrigo Antonio Arriagada; Paulina Aldunce; Gustavo Blanco; Cecilia Ibarra; Pilar Moraga; Laura Nahuelhual; Raúl O’Ryan; Anahí Urquiza; Laura Gallardo. 2018. "Climate change governance in the anthropocene: emergence of polycentrism in Chile." Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 6, no. 1: 1.
Worldwide, urbanization constitutes a major and growing driver of global change and a distinctive feature of the Anthropocene. Thus, urban development paths present opportunities for technological and societal transformations towards energy efficiency and decarbonization, with benefits for both greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollution mitigation. This requires a better understanding of the intertwined dynamics of urban energy and land use, emissions, demographics, governance, and societal and biophysical processes. In this study, we address several characteristics of urbanization in Santiago (33.5°S, 70.5°W, 500 m a.s.l.), the capital city of Chile. Specifically, we focus on the multiple links between mobility and air quality, describe the evolution of these two aspects over the past 30 years, and review the role scientific knowledge has played in policy-making. We show evidence of how technological measures (e.g., fuel quality, three-way catalytic converters, diesel particle filters) have been successful in decreasing coarse mode aerosol (PM10) concentrations in Santiago despite increasing urbanization (e.g., population, motorization, urban sprawl). However, we also show that such measures will likely be insufficient if behavioral changes do not achieve an increase in the use of public transportation. Our investigation seeks to inform urban development in the Anthropocene, and our results may be useful for other developing countries, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean where more than 80% of the population is urban.
Laura Gallardo; Francisco Barraza; Andrés Ceballos; Mauricio Galleguillos; Nicolás Huneeus; Fabrice Lambert; Cecilia Ibarra; Marcela A. Munizaga; Raúl O’Ryan; Mauricio Osses; Sebastián Tolvett; Anahí Urquiza; Karina D. Véliz. Evolution of air quality in Santiago: The role of mobility and lessons from the science-policy interface. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 2018, 6, 1 .
AMA StyleLaura Gallardo, Francisco Barraza, Andrés Ceballos, Mauricio Galleguillos, Nicolás Huneeus, Fabrice Lambert, Cecilia Ibarra, Marcela A. Munizaga, Raúl O’Ryan, Mauricio Osses, Sebastián Tolvett, Anahí Urquiza, Karina D. Véliz. Evolution of air quality in Santiago: The role of mobility and lessons from the science-policy interface. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene. 2018; 6 (1):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLaura Gallardo; Francisco Barraza; Andrés Ceballos; Mauricio Galleguillos; Nicolás Huneeus; Fabrice Lambert; Cecilia Ibarra; Marcela A. Munizaga; Raúl O’Ryan; Mauricio Osses; Sebastián Tolvett; Anahí Urquiza; Karina D. Véliz. 2018. "Evolution of air quality in Santiago: The role of mobility and lessons from the science-policy interface." Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene 6, no. 1: 1.
Thermal energy storage systems (TES) are a key component of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants that generally use a NaNO3/KNO3 mixture also known as solar salt as a thermal storage material. Improvements in TES materials are important to lower CSP costs, increase energy efficiency and competitiveness with other technologies. A novel alternative examined in this paper is the use of salt mixtures with lithium nitrate that help to reduce the salt’s melting point and improve thermal capacity. This in turn allows the volume of materials required to be reduced. Based on data for commercial plants and the expected evolution of the lithium market, the technical and economic prospects for this alternative are evaluated considering recent developments of Lithium Nitrates and the uncertain future prices of lithium. Through a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis it is concluded that some of the mixtures could allow a reduction in the costs of CSP plants, improving their competitiveness.
Macarena Montané; Gustavo Cáceres; Mauricio Villena; Raúl O’Ryan. Techno-Economic Forecasts of Lithium Nitrates for Thermal Storage Systems. Sustainability 2017, 9, 810 .
AMA StyleMacarena Montané, Gustavo Cáceres, Mauricio Villena, Raúl O’Ryan. Techno-Economic Forecasts of Lithium Nitrates for Thermal Storage Systems. Sustainability. 2017; 9 (5):810.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMacarena Montané; Gustavo Cáceres; Mauricio Villena; Raúl O’Ryan. 2017. "Techno-Economic Forecasts of Lithium Nitrates for Thermal Storage Systems." Sustainability 9, no. 5: 810.
The improvement of solar thermal technologies in emerging economies like Chile is particularly attractive because the country is endowed with one of the most consistently high solar potentials, lithium and copper reserves. In recent years, growing interests for lithium based salts and copper foams in application of thermal technologies could change the landscape of Chile transforming its lithium reserves and copper availability into competitive energy produced in the region. This study reviews the technical advantages of using lithium based salts—applied as heat storage media and heat transfer fluid—and copper foam/Phase Change Materials (PCM) alternatives—applied as heat storage media—within tower and parabolic trough Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants, and presents a first systematic evaluation of the costs of these alternatives based on real plant data. The methodology applied is based on material data base compilation of price and technical properties, selection of CSP plant and estimation of amount of required material, and analysis of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Results confirm that some lithium based salts are effective in reducing the amount of required material and costs for the Thermal Energy Storage (TES) systems for both plant cases, with savings of up to 68% and 4.14% in tons of salts and LCOE, respectively. Copper foam/PCM composites significantly increase thermal conductivity, decreasing the volume of the TES system, but costs of implementation are still higher than traditional options.
Gustavo Cáceres; Macarena Montané; Shahriyar Nasirov; Raúl O’Ryan. Review of Thermal Materials for CSP Plants and LCOE Evaluation for Performance Improvement using Chilean Strategic Minerals: Lithium Salts and Copper Foams. Sustainability 2016, 8, 106 .
AMA StyleGustavo Cáceres, Macarena Montané, Shahriyar Nasirov, Raúl O’Ryan. Review of Thermal Materials for CSP Plants and LCOE Evaluation for Performance Improvement using Chilean Strategic Minerals: Lithium Salts and Copper Foams. Sustainability. 2016; 8 (2):106.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGustavo Cáceres; Macarena Montané; Shahriyar Nasirov; Raúl O’Ryan. 2016. "Review of Thermal Materials for CSP Plants and LCOE Evaluation for Performance Improvement using Chilean Strategic Minerals: Lithium Salts and Copper Foams." Sustainability 8, no. 2: 106.
SynonymsEnvironmental governance; Government instrumentsDefinitionEnvironmental public policy is a government action to guide and regulate a sector or a region, regarding the use of natural resources and the quality of the environment.IntroductionEnvironmental policy in Latin America has been evolving to include the region’s diversity and better cope with the different and more complex problems faced. Most countries are highly urbanized – Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay exceed 90% of urban population – and almost all countries are above the world average of 52%. A common characteristic of Latin American countries is their natural resource abundance as well as their economic dependence upon primary exports. The region has an important part of the world’s tropical forest, freshwater, and cultivable land as well as mineral resource reserves. Consequently, there are two main areas of environmental policy concern: environmental quality, in particular air and water pollution relating to urban ...
Raul Oryan; Cecilia Ibarra. Environmental Policy in Latin America. Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance 2016, 95, 1 -9.
AMA StyleRaul Oryan, Cecilia Ibarra. Environmental Policy in Latin America. Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance. 2016; 95 ():1-9.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRaul Oryan; Cecilia Ibarra. 2016. "Environmental Policy in Latin America." Global Encyclopedia of Public Administration, Public Policy, and Governance 95, no. : 1-9.