Mobilization of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and related trace elements (TEs) from the frozen peat to surface waters in the permafrost zone is expected to enhance under ongoing permafrost thaw and active layer thickness (ALT) deepening in high-latitude regions. The interstitial soil solutions are efficient tracers of ongoing bio-geochemical processes in the critical zone and can help to decipher the intensity of carbon and metals migration from the soil to the rivers and further to the ocean. To this end, we collected, across a 640 km latitudinal transect of the sporadic to continuous permafrost zone of western Siberia peatlands, soil porewaters from 30 cm depth using suction cups and we analyzed DOC, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and 40 major elements and TEs in 0.45 µm filtered fraction of 80 soil porewaters. Despite an expected decrease in the intensity of DOC and TE mobilization from the soil and vegetation litter to the interstitial fluids with the increase in the permafrost coverage and a decrease in the annual temperature and ALT, the DOC and many major and trace elements did not exhibit any distinct decrease in concentration along the latitudinal transect from 62.2 to 67.4° N. The DOC demonstrated a maximum of concentration at 66° N, on the border of the discontinuous/continuous permafrost zone, whereas the DOC concentration in peat soil solutions from the continuous permafrost zone was equal to or higher than that in the sporadic/discontinuous permafrost zone. Moreover, a number of major (Ca, Mg) and trace (Al, Ti, Sr, Ga, rare earth elements (REEs), Zr, Hf, Th) elements exhibited an increasing, not decreasing, northward concentration trend. We hypothesize that the effects of temperature and thickness of the ALT are of secondary importance relative to the leaching capacity of peat, which is in turn controlled by the water saturation of the peat core. The water residence time in peat pores also plays a role in enriching the fluids in some elements: the DOC, V, Cu, Pb, REEs, and Th were a factor of 1.5 to 2.0 higher in mounds relative to hollows. As such, it is possible that the time of reaction between the peat and downward infiltrating waters essentially controls the degree of peat porewater enrichments in DOC and other solutes. A 2° northward shift in the position of the permafrost boundaries may bring about a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 decrease in Ca, Mg, Sr, Al, Fe, Ti, Mn, Ni, Co, V, Zr, Hf, Th, and REE porewater concentration in continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, and a possible decrease in DOC, specific ultraviolet absorbency (SUVA), Ca, Mg, Fe, and Sr will not exceed 20 % of their current values. The projected increase in ALT and vegetation density, northward migration of the permafrost boundary, or the change of hydrological regime is unlikely to modify chemical composition of peat porewater fluids larger than their natural variations within different micro-landscapes, i.e., within a factor of 2. The decrease in DOC and metal delivery to small rivers and lakes by peat soil leachate may also decrease the overall export of dissolved components from the continuous permafrost zone to the Arctic Ocean. This challenges the current paradigm on the increase in DOC export from the land to the ocean under climate warming in high latitudes.

The assessment of riverine fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and metals in surface waters of permafrost-affected regions is crucially important for constraining adequate models of ecosystem functioning under various climate change scenarios. In this regard, the largest permafrost peatland territory on the Earth, the Western Siberian Lowland (WSL) presents a unique opportunity of studying possible future changes in biogeochemical cycles because it lies within a south–north gradient of climate, vegetation, and permafrost that ranges from the permafrost-free boreal to the Arctic tundra with continuous permafrost at otherwise similar relief and bedrocks. By applying a “substituting space for time” scenario, the WSL south-north gradient may serve as a model for future changes due to permafrost boundary shift and climate warming. Here we measured export fluxes (yields) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), major cations, macro- and micro- nutrients, and trace elements in 32 rivers, draining the WSL across a latitudinal transect from the permafrost-free to the continuous permafrost zone. We aimed at quantifying the impact of climate warming (water temperature rise and permafrost boundary shift) on DOC, nutrient and metal in rivers using a “substituting space for time” approach. We demonstrate that, contrary to common expectations, the climate warming and permafrost thaw in the WSL will likely decrease the riverine export of organic C and many elements. Based on the latitudinal pattern of riverine export, in the case of a northward shift in the permafrost zones, the DOC, P, N, Si, Fe, divalent heavy metals, trivalent and tetravalent hydrolysates are likely to decrease the yields by a factor of 2–5. The DIC, Ca, SO₄, Sr, Ba, Mo, and U are likely to increase their yields by a factor of 2–3. Moreover, B, Li, K, Rb, Cs, N-NO₃, Mg, Zn, As, Sb, Rb, and Cs may be weakly affected by the permafrost boundary migration (change of yield by a factor of 1.5 to 2.0). We conclude that modeling of C and element cycle in the Arctic and subarctic should be region-specific and that neglecting huge areas of permafrost peatlands might produce sizeable bias in our predictions of climate change impact.

Thermokarst lakes and ponds formed due to thawing of frozen peat in high-latitude lowlands are very dynamic and environmentally important aquatic systems that play a key role in controlling C emission to atmosphere and organic carbon (OC), nutrient, and metal lateral export to rivers and streams. However, despite the importance of thermokarst lakes in assessing biogeochemical functioning of permafrost peatlands in response to climate warming and permafrost thaw, spatial (lake size, permafrost zone) and temporal (seasonal) variations in thermokarst lake hydrochemistry remain very poorly studied. Here, we used unprecedented spatial coverage (isolated, sporadic, discontinuous, and continuous permafrost zone of the western Siberia Lowland) of 67 lakes ranging in size from 10² to 10⁵ m² for sampling during three main hydrological periods of the year: spring flood, summer baseflow, and autumn time before ice-on. We demonstrate a systematic, all-season decrease in the concentration of dissolved OC (DOC) and an increase in SO₄, N-NO₃, and some metal (Mn, Co, Cu, Mo, Sr, U, Sb) concentration with an increase in lake surface area, depending on the type of the permafrost zone. These features are interpreted as a combination of (i) OC and organically bound metal leaching from peat at the lake shore, via abrasion and delivery of these compounds by suprapermafrost flow, and (ii) deep groundwater feeding of large lakes (especially visible in the continuous permafrost zone). Analyses of lake water chemical composition across the permafrost gradient allowed a first-order empirical prediction of lake hydrochemical changes in the case of climate warming and permafrost thaw, employing a substituting space for time scenario. The permafrost boundary shift northward may decrease the concentrations and pools of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), Li, B, Mg, K, Ca, Sr, Ba, Ni, Cu, As, Rb, Mo, Sr, Y, Zr, rare Earth elements (REEs), Th, and U by a factor of 2–5 in the continuous permafrost zone, but increase the concentrations of CH₄, DOC, NH₄, Cd, Sb, and Pb by a factor of 2–3. In contrast, the shift of the sporadic to isolated zone may produce a 2–5-fold decrease in CH₄, DOC, NH₄, Al, P, Ti, Cr, Ni, Ga, Zr, Nb, Cs, REEs, Hf, Th, and U. The exact magnitude of this response will, however, be strongly seasonally dependent, with the largest effects observable during baseflow seasons.