Predicting crash injury severity is a crucial constituent of reducing the consequences of traffic crashes. This study developed machine learning (ML) models to predict crash injury severity using 15 crash-related parameters. Separate ML models for each cluster were obtained using fuzzy c-means, which enhanced the predicting capability. Finally, four ML models were developed: feed-forward neural networks (FNN), support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy C-means clustering based feed-forward neural network (FNN-FCM), and fuzzy c-means based support vector machine (SVM-FCM). Features that were easily identified with little investigation on crash sites were used as an input so that the trauma center can predict the crash severity level based on the initial information provided from the crash site and prepare accordingly for the treatment of the victims. The input parameters mainly include vehicle attributes and road condition attributes. This study used the crash database of Great Britain for the years 2011–2016. A random sample of crashes representing each year was used considering the same share of severe and non-severe crashes. The models were compared based on injury severity prediction accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and harmonic mean of sensitivity and precision (i.e., F1 score). The SVM-FCM model outperformed the other developed models in terms of accuracy and F1 score in predicting the injury severity level of severe and non-severe crashes. This study concluded that the FCM clustering algorithm enhanced the prediction power of FNN and SVM models.
Vehicle automation and communication technologies are considered promising approaches to improve operational driving behavior. The expected gradual implementation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) shortly will cause unique impacts on the traffic flow characteristics. This paper focuses on reviewing the expected impacts under a mixed traffic environment of AVs and regular vehicles (RVs) considering different AV characteristics. The paper includes a policy implication discussion for possible actual future practice and research interests. The AV implementation has positive impacts on the traffic flow, such as improved traffic capacity and stability. However, the impact depends on the factors including penetration rate of the AVs, characteristics, and operational settings of the AVs, traffic volume level, and human driving behavior. The critical penetration rate, which has a high potential to improve traffic characteristics, was higher than 40%. AV’s intelligent control of operational driving is a function of its operational settings, mainly car-following modeling. Different adjustments of these settings may improve some traffic flow parameters and may deteriorate others. The position and distribution of AVs and the type of their leading or following vehicles may play a role in maximizing their impacts.
Many unfortunate victims in road traffic crashes do not receive ideal treatment because their injury severity is not understood at an early stage. Swift crash severity prediction enables trauma and emergency centers to estimate the potential damage resulting from a road traffic crash and accordingly dispatch the proper emergency units to provide appropriate emergency treatment. A two-layer ensemble machine learning model is proposed in this study to predict road traffic crash severity. The first layer integrates four base machine learning models: k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, adaptive boosting, and support vector machine; the second layer classifies the crash severity based on the feedforward neural network model. The models are developed using road traffic crash data of road intersections over 6 years (2011–2016) obtained from Great Britain’s Department of Transport online database. Only the crash features that can be instantaneously and easily obtained are used as an input. To simplify the two-layer ensemble model, principal component analysis technique is used for dimensionality reduction in the second layer of the model. The performance of the two-layer ensemble model is compared with five base models: k-nearest neighbor, decision tree, adaptive boosting, support vector machine, and feedforward neural network. The prediction results reveal that the two-layer ensemble model outperforms the five base classification models based on two performance indicators: testing accuracy and F1 score. The transferability of the developed model is tested using the 3-year crash dataset for Canada obtained from the National Crash Database Online. The outcome indicates that the two-layer ensemble model shows the best performance for the Canadian dataset also. The proposed two-layer ensemble model would be beneficial in predicting crash severity with high accuracy based on limited initial crash information obtained from the crash location. Using this information, trauma centers would be able to prepare for appropriate and prompt medical treatment.
1 October 2009 in Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology
In many countries, the most widely used method for timing plan selection and implementation is the time-of-day (TOD) method. In TOD mode, a few traffic patterns that exist in the historical volume data are recognized and used to find the signal timing plans needed to achieve optimum performance of the intersections during the day. Traffic engineers usually determine TOD breakpoints by analyzing 1 or 2 days worth of traffic data and relying on their engineering judgment. The current statistical methods, such as hierarchical and K-means clustering methods, determine TOD breakpoints but introduce a large number of transitions. This paper proposes adopting the Z-score of the traffic flow and time variable in the K-means clustering to reduce the number of transitions. The numbers of optimum breakpoints are chosen based on a microscopic simulation model considering a set of performance measures. By using simulation and the K-means algorithm, it was found that five clusters are the optimum for a major arterial i...
The recent advancement in industrial technology has offered new opportunities to overcome different problems of stochastic driving behavior of humans through effective implementation of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Optimum utilization of driving behavior and advanced capabilities of the AVs has enabled researchers to propose autonomous cooperative-based methods for signalized intersection control under an AV traffic environment. In the future, AVs will share road networks with regular vehicles (RVs), representing a dynamic mixed traffic environment of two groups of vehicles with different characteristics. Without compromising the safety and level of service, traffic operation and control of such a complex environment is a challenging task. The current study includes a comprehensive review focused on the signalized intersection control methods under a mixed traffic environment. The different proposed methods in the literature are based on certain assumptions, requirements, and constraints mainly associated with traffic composition, connectivity, road infrastructures, intersection, and functional network design. Therefore, these methods should be evaluated with appropriate consideration of the underlying assumptions and limitations. This study concludes that the application of adaptive traffic signal control can effectively optimize traffic signal plans for variations of AV traffic environments. However, artificial intelligence approaches primarily focusing on reinforcement learning should be considered to better utilization of the improved AV characteristics.