Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management.

We present a spatially explicit global overview of nearshore coastal types, based on hydrological, lithological and morphological criteria. A total of four main operational types act as active filters of both dissolved and suspended material entering the ocean from land: small deltas (type I), tidal systems (II), lagoons (III) and fjords (IV). Large rivers (V) largely bypass the nearshore filter, while karstic (VI) and arheic coasts (VII) act as inactive filters. This typology provides new insight into the spatial distribution and inherent heterogeneity of estuarine filters worldwide. The relative importance of each type at the global scale is calculated and types I, II, III and IV account for 32%, 22%, 8% and 26% of the global coastline, respectively, while 12% have a very limited nearshore coastal filter. As an application of this typology, the global estuarine surface area is re-estimated to 1.1 × 10⁶ km² instead of 1.4 × 10⁶ km² in earlier work.

In river basins, soils, groundwater, riparian zones and floodplains, streams, rivers, lakes and reservoirs act as successive filters in which the hydrology, ecology and biogeochemical processing are strongly coupled and together act to retain a significant fraction of the nutrients transported. This paper compares existing river ecology concepts with current approaches to describe river biogeochemistry, and assesses the value of these concepts and approaches for understanding the impacts of interacting global change disturbances on river biogeochemistry. Through merging perspectives, concepts, and modeling techniques, we propose integrated model approaches that encompass both aquatic and terrestrial components in heterogeneous landscapes. In this model framework, existing ecological and biogeochemical concepts are extended with a balanced approach for assessing nutrient and sediment delivery, on the one hand, and nutrient in-stream retention on the other hand.

Coastal plains are amongst the most densely populated areas in the world. Many coastal peatlands are drained to create arable land. This is not without consequences; physical compaction of peat and its degradation by oxidation lead to subsidence, and oxidation also leads to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This study complements existing studies by quantifying total land subsidence and associated CO₂ respiration over the past millennium in the Dutch coastal peatlands, to gain insight into the consequences of cultivating coastal peatlands over longer timescales. Results show that the peat volume loss was 19.8 km³, which lowered the Dutch coastal plain by 1.9 m on average, bringing most of it below sea level. At least 66 % of the volume reduction is the result of drainage, and 34 % was caused by the excavation and subsequent combustion of peat. The associated CO₂ respiration is equivalent to a global atmospheric CO₂ concentration increase of ~0.39 ppmv. Cultivation of coastal peatlands can turn a carbon sink into a carbon source. If the path taken by the Dutch would be followed worldwide, there will be double trouble: globally significant carbon emissions and increased flood risk in a globally important human habitat. The effects would be larger than the historic ones because most of the cumulative Dutch subsidence and peat loss was accomplished with much less efficient techniques than those available now.