Ecosystem services (ESs) are fundamental to human well-being, yet the capacity of ecosystems to provide ESs is increasingly altered by anthropogenic climate and land use changes. Understanding how climate change and land use change impact ecosystem service (ES) dynamics is critical for promoting sustainable region development in ecologically sensitive regions. Using the InVEST model and a scenario-based framework, this study assesses the relative contributions of climate and land use changes to water yield, soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and habitat quality in the upper Minjiang River basin, China from 1990 to 2020 and projects ES changes under future climate and land use scenarios for 2050. Our results show that climate change played a dominant role in increasing water yield and soil conservation services, particularly after 2000, while land use changes enhance carbon sequestration and habitat quality. Although forest expansion contributed positively to carbon storage and erosion control, the loss of grassland and increased construction land reduced habitat quality and intensified erosion risks in some areas. Scenario simulations for 2050 demonstrate that the ecological protection scenario yields the most balanced improvements in all four ESs. These findings highlight the distinct roles of climate and land use changes in shaping ecosystem service provision and offer a scientific basis for promoting the sustainable regional environment in alpine regions under changing climate and land use.

Tibetan Plateau peatlands store substantial organic carbon and are highly vulnerable to climate warming, yet the response of CO₂ emissions to whole-soil-profile warming remains unclear. We conducted a two-year whole-soil-profile warming experiment (0–300 cm) in a Zoige peatland with four treatments: control (CK), moderate warming (+2.5 °C, W2.5), high warming (+5 °C, W5), and variable warming (0–8 °C, VT). CO₂ responses to warming were non-linear, season-dependent, and intensified over time. W5 significantly increased growing-season CO₂ fluxes to 345.52 and 394.57 mg m⁻² h⁻¹ in 2022 and 2023, respectively. During the non-growing season, warming had no significant effect in the first year, whereas all warming treatments significantly increased CO₂ fluxes in the second year. Principal component analysis further indicated a temporal shift in the factors associated with CO₂ emissions, from carbon availability (DOC and SOC) in the first year toward inorganic nitrogen (NH₄⁺-N and NO₃⁻-N), available phosphorus, and soil environmental conditions (e.g., Eh) under prolonged warming. These findings highlight the importance of warming intensity, duration, and belowground biogeochemical reorganization in regulating alpine peatland carbon–climate feedbacks.