The accurate estimation of forest biomass is crucial for supporting climate change mitigation efforts such as sustainable forest management. Although traditional regression models have been widely used to link stand biomass with biotic and abiotic predictors, this approach has several disadvantages, including the difficulty in dealing with data autocorrelation, model selection, and convergence. While machine learning can overcome these challenges, the application remains limited, particularly at a large scale with consideration of climate variables. This study used the random forests (RF) algorithm to estimate stand aboveground biomass (AGB) and total biomass (TB) of larch (Larix spp.) plantations in north and northeast China and quantified the contributions of different predictors. The data for modelling biomass were collected from 445 sample plots of the National Forest Inventory (NFI). A total of 22 independent variables (6 stand and 16 climate variables) were used to develop and train climate-sensitive stand biomass models. Optimization of hyper parameters was implemented using grid search and 10-fold cross-validation. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the RF models were 0.9845 and 3.8008 t ha⁻¹ for AGB, and 0.9836 and 5.1963 t ha⁻¹ for TB. The cumulative contributions of stand and climate factors to stand biomass were >98% and 60% and ~0.25%, respectively. The partial dependence plots illustrated the complicated relationships between climate factors and stand biomass. This study illustrated the power of RF for estimating stand biomass and understanding the effects of stand and climate factors on forest biomass. The application of RF can be useful for mapping of large-scale carbon stock.

Forest trees exhibit a large variation in the basal area increment (BAI), and the variation is attributed to the stand density, biodiversity, and stand spatial structure. Studying and quantifying the effect of these above variables on tree growth is vital for future forest management. However, the stand spatial structure based on neighboring trees has rarely been considered, especially in the mixed forests. This study adopted the random-forest (RF) algorithm to model and interpret BAI based on stand density, biodiversity, and spatial structure. Fourteen independent variables, including two stand density predictors, four biodiversity predictors, and eight spatial structure predictors, were evaluated. The RF model was trained for the whole stand, three tree species groups (gap, neutral, and shade_tolerant), and two tree species (spruce and fir). A 10-fold blocked cross-validation was then used to optimize the hyper-parameters and evaluate the models. The squared correlation coefficients (R²) for the six groups were 0.233 for the whole stand, 0.575 for fir, 0.609 for shade_tolerant, 0.622 for neutral, 0.722 for gap, and 0.730 for spruce. The Stand Density Index (SDI) was the most-important predictor, suggesting that BAI is primarily restricted by competition. BAI and species biodiversity were positively correlated for the whole stand. The stands were expected to be randomly distributed based on the relationship between the uniform angle index (W) and growth. The relationship between dominance (U) and BAI indicated that small trees should be planted around the light-demanding tree species and vice versa. Of note, these findings emphasize the need to consider the three types of variables in mixed forests, especially the spatial structure factors. This study may help make significant advances in species composition, spatial arrangement, and the sustainable development of mixed forests.

Spatial structure dynamics play a major role in understanding the mechanisms of forest structure and biodiversity formation. Recently, researches on the spatial structure dynamics utilizing multi-period data have been published. However, these studies only focused on comparative analyses of the spatial structure of multi-period living trees, without an in-depth analysis of the change processes. In this study, we propose a new comprehensive analysis method for dynamic change of the spatial structure at the individual level, which includes three processes (living trees’ flow, mortality process and recruitment process) that have not been considered in previous researches. Four spatial structural parameters (SSSPs, Uniform angle index, Mingling, Dominance and Crowding) and a natural spruce-fir-broadleaf mixed forest with two-phase data were taken as an example to find out the laws of the spatial structure dynamics. All types of dynamic change were named and their proportions were analyzed. The proportion of changes in the SSSPs of individuals was relatively high, even though the mean values of the stand did not change considerably. The five values (0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1) of the SSSPs are in mutual flow, and the flows are typically one-step, with three-steps and four-steps changes being uncommon. The processes of mortality and recruitment have a higher influence on the spatial structure than the flow of living trees. The dynamic change of spatial structure analysis method created in this study can capture more features not discovered in earlier approaches, as well as guiding forest management in some ways. Understanding the nuances of these changes is a critical part of reasonable spatial structure and biodiversity maintenance, and should be the focus of future research efforts.

Individual trees are characterized by various sizes and forms, such as diameter at breast height, total height (H), height to crown base (HCB), crown length (CL), crown width, and crown and stem forms. Tree characteristics are strongly related to each other, and studying their relationships is very important. The knowledge of the compatibility and additivity properties of the major tree characteristics, such as H, CL, and HCB, is essential for informed decision-making in forestry. H can be used to represent site quality and CL represents biomass and photosynthesis of crown, which is the performance of individual tree vigor and light interception, and the longer the crown length (or shorter HCB) is, the more vigorous the tree would be. However, none of the studies have uncovered their inherent relationships quantitatively. This study attempts to explore such relationships through the application of appropriate modeling approaches. We applied seemingly unrelated regression, such as nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR), which is commonly used for exploring the compatibility and additivity properties of the variables, for the proposes. The NSUR involves the variance and covariance matrices of the sub-models that are used for the interpretation of the correlations among the variables of interest. The data set acquired from Mongolian oak forest and spruce-fir forest in the Jingouling forest farm of the Wangqing Forest Bureau in the Northeast of China were used to construct two types of model systems: a compatible model system (the model system of H, CL, and HCB can be estimated simultaneously) and an additive model system (the sum of HCB and CL is H, the form of the H sub-model equals the sum of the HCB and CL sub-models) from the individual models of H, CL, and HCB. Among the various tree-level and stand-level variables evaluated, D (diameter at breast), Dg (quadratic mean diameter), DT (dominant diameter), CW (crown width), SDI (stand density index), and BAS (basal area of stand) contributed significantly highly to the variations of the response of the variables of interest in the model systems. Modeling results showed the existence of the compatibility and additivity of H, CL, and HCB simultaneously. The additive model system exhibited better fitting performance on H and HCB but poorer fitting on CL compared with the simultaneous model system, indicating that the performance of the additive model system could be higher than that of the simultaneous model system. Model tests against the validation data set also confirmed such results. This study contributes a novel approach to solving the compatibility and additivity of the problems of H, CL, and HCB models through the application of the robust estimating method, NSUR. The results and algorithm presented will be useful for constructing similar compatible and additive model systems of multiple tree-level models for other tree species.

Climatic warming advances the start of the growing season (SOS) and sequentially enhances the vegetation productivity of temperate forests by extending the carbon uptake period and/or increasing the growth rate. Recent research indicates that the vegetation growth rate is a main driver for the interannual changes in vegetation carbon uptake; however, the specific effects of an earlier SOS on vegetation growth rate and the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Using 268 year-site PhenoCam observations in temperate forests, we found that an earlier SOS reduced the vegetation growth rate and mean air temperature during the green-up period (i.e., from the SOS to the peak of the growing period), but increased the accumulation of shortwave radiation during the green-up period. Interestingly, an earlier-SOS-induced reduction in the growth rate was weakened in the highly humid areas (aridity index ≥ 1) when compared with that in the humid areas (aridity index < 1), suggesting that an earlier-SOS-induced reduction in the growth rate in temperate forests may intensify with the ongoing global warming and aridity in the future. The structural equation model analyses indicated that an earlier-SOS-induced decrease in the temperature and increase in shortwave radiation drove a low vegetation growth rate. Our findings highlight that the productivity of temperate forests may be overestimated if the negative effect of an earlier SOS on the vegetation growth rate is ignored.