Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.

In this work, we investigate the temporal evolution of ground deformation affecting the ocean-reclaimed lands of the Shanghai (China) megacity, from 2007 to 2016, by applying the Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) technique known as the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. For the analysis, we exploited two sets of non-time-overlapped synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, acquired from 2007 to 2010, by the ASAR/ENVISAT (C-band) instrument, and from 2014 to 2016 by the X-band COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) sensors. The long time gap (of about three years) existing between the available C- and X-band datasets made the generation of unique displacement time-series more difficult. Nonetheless, this problem was successfully solved by benefiting from knowledge of time-dependent geotechnical models, which describe the temporal evolution of the expected deformation affecting Shanghai’s ocean-reclaimed platforms. The combined ENVISAT/CSK (vertical) deformation time-series were analyzed to gain insight into the future evolution of displacement signals within the investigated area. As an outcome, we find that ocean-reclaimed lands in Shanghai experienced, between 2007 and 2016, average cumulative (vertical) displacements extending down to 25 centimeters.

In this work, ground deformation of the Shanghai coastal area is inferred by using the multiple-satellite Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry (DInSAR) approach, also known as the minimum acceleration (MinA) combination algorithm. The MinA technique allows discrimination and time-evolution monitoring of the inherent two-dimensional components (i.e., with respect to east-west and up-down directions) of the ongoing deformation processes. It represents an effective post-processing tool that allows an easy combination of preliminarily-retrieved multiple-satellite Line-Of-Sight-projected displacement time-series, obtained by using one (or more) of the currently available multi-pass DInSAR toolboxes. Specifically, in our work, the well-known small baseline subset (SBAS) algorithm has been exploited to recover LOS deformation time-series from two sets of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data relevant to the coast of Shanghai, collected from 2014 to 2017 by the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) and the Sentinel-1A (S1-A) sensors. The achieved results evidence that the Shanghai ocean-reclaimed areas were still subject to residual deformations in 2016, with maximum subsidence rates of about 30 mm/year. Moreover, the investigation has revealed that the detected deformations are predominantly vertical, whereas the east-west deformations are less significant.

This paper is aimed at studying the temporal evolution of the surface displacements occurred over the past few years in the ocean-reclaimed platforms of the Shanghai megacity (China), which are mainly ascribable to consolidation processes of large dredger fills and alluvial deposits. With respect to previous analyses carried out over the same area, this work provides a joint multi-platform differential interferometry synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) analysis, based on the application of the advanced Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. This led us to retrieve long-term deformation time-series that are helpful for a better understanding of the on-going deformation phenomena. To this aim, we have exploited two sequences of SAR data collected by the ASAR/ENVISAT and by the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) sensors, respectively, spanning the whole time period from 2007 to 2016. Unfortunately, the large time gap (of about three years) existing between the available ASAR/ENVISAT and CSK datasets gave rise to additional difficulties for their combination. Nevertheless, this problem has been faced by benefiting from the knowledge of a time-dependent model describing the temporal evolution of the expected deformations affecting the Shanghai ocean-reclaimed platforms.