Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.

The influence of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) in the evolution of two wildfires that started during the afternoon of 17 June 2017 in Pedrógão Grande, Central Portugal is discussed and analysed using weather radar data, weather stations, video images and fire spread analysis. As the MCS approached the region, its convectively driven flows started to influence the fires. The overturning flows were formed by two main limbs: one organised as front-to-rear deep layer inflows that propagated over the convective region of the MCS and the other as rear-to-front mid-level inflows that descended below the anvil structure of the MCS. The rear-to-front inflows, while accelerating and descending to lower levels, contributed to modify the fires’ intensity and plume characteristics. After the two fires merged, the resulting junction fire became very intense and impossible to control. Then, a firestorm was generated, causing the deaths of 66 people. The main goal of this study is to detail the influence of the MCS in the fire spread, thus contributing to the general knowledge of outstanding fire behaviour modifications due to the influence of atmospheric convective processes.

Due to the lack of a general drought definition, water users and managers have developed and used different indices. Many studies using drought indices have been made so as to detect drought events or just to compare their results and assess their advantages and disadvantages. In Portugal, these studies have been done for common drought indices; however, an integrated evaluation and comparison using recent data is needed. Therefore, this study is intended to give an updated overview of the behaviour of the proposed indices. This study proposes the usage of PDSI, scPDSI, SPI and SPEI. With the exception of the PDSI, all indices have been calculated through R packages. The results for the studied regions in mainland Portugal suggest that the drought situations are, in general, most significant and frequent than the wet periods. From our results, we can conclude that the SPI model is more sensitive to extreme drought events and can detect them earlier. The PDSI, scPDSI and SPEI are more reliable for drought monitorization at medium and long spells, which might represent the environmental interactions more closely to the reality. Also, the scPDSI tends to reduce the importance of short period recovering. It is then advisable that impact and scientifical studies consider all of these indices or at least some of them to have a broader and complete understanding of the drought situations to be studied.

Over the last few decades, Extreme Wildfire Events (EWE) have been reported, especially in the Mediterranean basin