Land abandonment in European mountains threatens habitats shaped for centuries by low-intensity agriculture and grazing. Hence, it is important to identify spatiotemporal patterns in rural abandonment, and relate them to biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. We pursued these goals in the theoretical context of transitions from traditional to productivist and then to post-productivist agriculture. We conducted a case study in a representative of southern Europe sub-mountainous marginal area that was once traditionally exploited (Pindus range, Epirus, Greece). Land cover was mapped from the outset of abandonment (years 1945, 1970, 1996 and 2015), and we subsequently calculated landscape metrics. An Intensity Analysis facilitated the comparison of rates of land cover change between time periods. By employing random forest modelling, we related socioeconomic, physiographic, geological and climatic predictors to land type occurrence and succession intensity. We found that farmland decreased from 30% to 3% during the 70 years of the study period, and that forest increased from 22% to 63%. The landscape’s heterogeneity, ecotone diversity, and spatial aggregation decreased. Abandonment and succession accelerated and relocated to lower elevation, especially during the latest time period, which was related to a second depopulation wave and livestock decrease. The remaining lowland farmlands were of productivist agriculture, and no widespread post-productivist regime was found. Thus, our study supports the view that policies, which have been mainly based on the linear transition of agricultural regimes in northern Europe, must take into account southern European mountains, where widespread abandonment can coexist with limited intensification and extensification.

Land use and cover (LUC) of southern European mountains is dramatically changing, mainly due to observed socioeconomic demands and climatic changes. It is therefore important to understand LUC changes to accurately predict future landscapes and their threats. Simulation models of LUC change are ideal for this task because they allow the in silico experimentation under different socioeconomic and climatic scenarios. In the present study, we employed the trans-CLUE-S model, to predict for 2055 the LUC of a typical southern European sub-mountainous area, which has experienced widespread abandonment until recently. Four demand scenarios were tested, and under each demand scenario, we compared three climatic scenarios, ranging from less to more warm and dry conditions. We found that farmland declined from 3.2% of the landscape in 2015 to 0.4% in 2055 under the business-as-usual demand scenario, whereas forest further increased from 62.6% to 79%. For any demand scenario, differences in LUC between maps predicted under different climatic scenarios constituted less than 10% of the landscape. In the less than 10% that differed, mainly farmland and forest shifted to higher elevation under a warmer and drier climate, whereas grassland and scrubland to lower. Such insights by modelling analyses like the present study’s can improve the planning and implementation of management and restoration policies which will attempt to conserve ecosystem services and mitigate the negative effects of socioeconomic and climatic changes in the mountainous regions of southern Europe.

Forest management can be implemented for various demands, including biomass or energy production, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, and ecosystem services, all related to forest utilisation and sustainability. However, these demands can conflict, with biomass production potentially hindering biodiversity conservation, and a focus on climate mitigation or ecosystem services possibly limiting wood production. The aim of the present study was to review the literature related to these conflicts and identify best practices for balancing demands in the context of policies and management tools in the European Union (EU). We found that while EU policies promote sustainability, there is insufficient integration between the biodiversity, carbon storage, and biomass production objectives. We additionally found that by integrating datasets and models, such as by interconnecting models for carbon dynamics, biodiversity, and biomass production, predictions and hence workarounds for addressing these competing demands can be more accurate. Based on these findings, we recommend adopting a more holistic approach in forest management strategies, considering both ecological and socio-economic factors for long-term sustainability. This review provides insights for policymakers, forest managers, and other stakeholders, for navigating the trade-offs between different forest ecosystem services, and for supporting informed decision-making in the development of effective forest policies.

We investigated the combined effects of climate and land-use change on plant diversity in northwestern Greece, a region representative of broader European trends in land abandonment. We based our study on comprehensive field data on plants’ distribution and modelling of land-use changes based on socio-economic trends. We build distribution models for 358 taxa based on current (2015) and future (2055) conditions according to the combinations of three climate and three land-use change scenarios. We compared species distribution changes between current and future conditions for each scenario, and we investigated species trends concerning their ecological indicator values and strategies. Additionally, by analyzing the distribution changes in aggregated differential taxa representing the various plant communities in the study area, we identified patterns of distribution shifts at the community level. Our results indicated more pronounced differences between land-use scenarios than between climate ones, which was attributed to the local scale of the study area, its climatic and physiographic characteristics, and its complex land-use legacy. Both climate and land-use changes drastically reduced the distribution of some species, with species distribution loss exceeding 80% under certain combinations of socioeconomic and climate change scenarios. Species ecological indicator values and strategies showed a buffering effect of forest microclimate against climate change, which, however, may favor only species of forest communities. At the community level, land-use change had again a stronger impact than climate change, with consistent patterns within major vegetation types (forests and open habitats) but contrasting trends between them. Our results highlight the need for appropriate conservation plans to counteract the negative impacts of land abandonment and to take advantage of its positive impacts.

Agroforestry has a long history of evolution in Europe and has been especially selected under the unfavorable socioeconomic and environmental conditions of the Mediterranean region. The recent changes in social-ecological conditions have increased the interest in the contribution of agroforestry to the mitigation of forthcoming challenges. Thus, the present study aimed to analyze the socioeconomic and ecological suitability of agricultural lands for preserving, restoring, and establishing agroforestry practices in Europe. We classified different agroforestry systems based on the LUCAS database, finding that most agroforestry in Europe is in areas associated with older human populations of varying densities and employment levels at lower altitudes, gentler slopes, moderate annual mean temperature and precipitation, and in medium textured soils with limited organic carbon content. Focusing on the prevalent agroforestry system of silvopasture, the majority of which is found in three Mediterranean ecoregions of mainly sclerophyllous forests, the most important factors for the occurrence of this system were subsoil available water content (Aegean), land cover (Adriatic), and topsoil available water content (Iberian). The suitable area for silvopasture according to MaxEnt was 32%, 30%, and 22% of the Aegean, Adriatic, and Iberian ecoregion’s area, respectively. Such mapping of agroforestry suitability can help policymakers to undertake adaptive management for the implementation of agroforestry-based solutions to address ecosystem restoration, food insecurity, and rapid environmental changes and threats.