Land abandonment in European mountains threatens habitats shaped for centuries by low-intensity agriculture and grazing. Hence, it is important to identify spatiotemporal patterns in rural abandonment, and relate them to biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. We pursued these goals in the theoretical context of transitions from traditional to productivist and then to post-productivist agriculture. We conducted a case study in a representative of southern Europe sub-mountainous marginal area that was once traditionally exploited (Pindus range, Epirus, Greece). Land cover was mapped from the outset of abandonment (years 1945, 1970, 1996 and 2015), and we subsequently calculated landscape metrics. An Intensity Analysis facilitated the comparison of rates of land cover change between time periods. By employing random forest modelling, we related socioeconomic, physiographic, geological and climatic predictors to land type occurrence and succession intensity. We found that farmland decreased from 30% to 3% during the 70 years of the study period, and that forest increased from 22% to 63%. The landscape’s heterogeneity, ecotone diversity, and spatial aggregation decreased. Abandonment and succession accelerated and relocated to lower elevation, especially during the latest time period, which was related to a second depopulation wave and livestock decrease. The remaining lowland farmlands were of productivist agriculture, and no widespread post-productivist regime was found. Thus, our study supports the view that policies, which have been mainly based on the linear transition of agricultural regimes in northern Europe, must take into account southern European mountains, where widespread abandonment can coexist with limited intensification and extensification.

In the summer of 2021, enormous wildfires in the Mediterranean eliminated huge areas of mainly coniferous forest, destroyed adjacent settlements and claimed the lives of many people. The fires indicate effects of climate change and expose consequences of rural demographic changes, deficits in regional and touristic development planning and shortcomings in forest policy. This forum article highlights the dimensions of the problem, calls for a paradigm shift and shows solutions. Land abandonment, woody plant encroachment and non-reflective afforestation are leading to increasing amounts of combustible biomass. To prevent disastrous fires in future, fundamental changes in tree species composition, forest structure and management are essential. Plantations of reseeding pines are to be substituted by spacious or periodically open woodlands of long-lived trees with resprouting capacity such as Mediterranean oaks. Biomass-reducing practices including wood-pasture have to be revived in rural and peri-urban areas. Exemplary fire-resistant multifunctional oak woodlands occur throughout the Mediterranean. Urgent and medium-term measures in the burnt areas include promoting natural ecosystem regeneration, developing regionalized seed banks and nurseries to support native genetic resources, fostering vegetation mosaics of groves and multiple-use open and coppice woodland maintained by traditional practices, and in general forest management aiming at fuel biomass reduction and a policy counteracting land abandonment.

This study presents a first, national scale approach on ecosystem condition assessment for Greece, through integrating the available surveillance and monitoring data for habitat types, at the plot level, within the Natura 2000 network. The study consists of two parts: (a) ecosystem condition assessment for ecosystem types in Greece, using the conservation degree at plot level as an indicator and (b) a large scale analysis of the forest types' condition using, as indicators, the pressures and typical plant species richness, as an exemplary case to interpret the outcomes of the assessment. The main results of this study revealed that: (i) the majority of the ecosystem types are in above good condition, with the higher percentages of bad condition recorded for wetlands, rivers and lakes, marine inlets and transitional waters, (ii) forest categories in their majority are at above-adequate condition, (iii) at forest ecosystem categories specific pressures (e.g. grazing, cultivations, forestry clearance) act as main drivers forecosystem condition change, (iv) Mediterranean deciduous forests are the most floristic-rich forest category, regarding typical plant species. Simultaneously, it is highlighted that already available datasets could be used for immediate and rapid framework assessments, which will guide future steps on ES studies, research and decision-making.

Land use and cover (LUC) of southern European mountains is dramatically changing, mainly due to observed socioeconomic demands and climatic changes. It is therefore important to understand LUC changes to accurately predict future landscapes and their threats. Simulation models of LUC change are ideal for this task because they allow the in silico experimentation under different socioeconomic and climatic scenarios. In the present study, we employed the trans-CLUE-S model, to predict for 2055 the LUC of a typical southern European sub-mountainous area, which has experienced widespread abandonment until recently. Four demand scenarios were tested, and under each demand scenario, we compared three climatic scenarios, ranging from less to more warm and dry conditions. We found that farmland declined from 3.2% of the landscape in 2015 to 0.4% in 2055 under the business-as-usual demand scenario, whereas forest further increased from 62.6% to 79%. For any demand scenario, differences in LUC between maps predicted under different climatic scenarios constituted less than 10% of the landscape. In the less than 10% that differed, mainly farmland and forest shifted to higher elevation under a warmer and drier climate, whereas grassland and scrubland to lower. Such insights by modelling analyses like the present study’s can improve the planning and implementation of management and restoration policies which will attempt to conserve ecosystem services and mitigate the negative effects of socioeconomic and climatic changes in the mountainous regions of southern Europe.

Managing forests to sustain their diversity and functioning is a major challenge in a changing world. Despite the key role of understory vegetation in driving forest biodiversity, regeneration and functioning, few studies address the functional dimensions of understory vegetation response to silvicultural management. We assessed the influence of the silvicultural regimes on the functional diversity and redundancy of European forest understory. We gathered vascular plant abundance data from more than 2000 plots in European forests, each associated with one out of the five most widespread silvicultural regimes. We used generalized linear mixed models to assess the effect of different silvicultural regimes on understory functional diversity (Rao's quadratic entropy) and functional redundancy, while accounting for climate and soil conditions, and explored the reciprocal relationship between three diversity components (functional diversity, redundancy and dominance) across silvicultural regimes through a ternary diversity diagram. Intensive silvicultural regimes are associated with a decrease in functional diversity and an increase in functional redundancy, compared with unmanaged conditions. This means that although intensive management may buffer communities' functions against species or functional losses, it also limits the range of understory response to environmental changes. Policy implications. Different silvicultural regimes influence different facets of understory functional features. While unmanaged forests can be used as a reference to design silvicultural practices in compliance with biodiversity conservation targets, different silvicultural options should be balanced at landscape scale to sustain the multiple forest functions that human societies are increasingly demanding.