Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze whether and how managerial overconfidence affects stock price crash risk.Design/methodology/approach: Based on a large sample of Chinese non-state-owned firms from 2000 to 2012, this study employs methods including multiple linear regression model, Heckman two-stage treatment effect procedure, firm fixed effects model and event study to clarify the causality relationship between managerial overconfidence and crash risk.Findings: The authors find that firms with overconfident managers (chief executive officer or board chairs) are more likely to experience future stock price crashes than firms with non-overconfident managers. The effect of overconfidence on crash risk is more pronounced for firms with low transparency, suggesting that firm opacity facilitates overconfident managers’ bad news hoarding activities, which, in turn, increases stock price crash risk. The authors also show evidence that overconfident managers tend to disclose good news in a timely manner.Originality/value: The authors add to the growing literature on stock price crash risk. Specifically, the authors find that the cognitive bias of board chair plays an important role in the bad news hoarding activities, thereby increasing the likelihood of stock price crash. This study also contributes to the literature that addresses the effects of managerial overconfidence on corporate finance issues.

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the influence of social interactions on mutual fund portfolios from the perspective of alumni network in China.Design/methodology/approach: Based on a data set that consists of 162 actively managed equity funds in China during the time period of 2003–2014, this study employs multiple linear regression model to control for organization- and location-based interpersonal connections as well as other confounding factors and clarify the causality relationship between alumni networks of mutual fund managers and their portfolios.Findings: After controlling for organization- and location-based interpersonal connections, we find that mutual fund managers who graduated from the same college/university have more similar stock holdings and are more likely to buy or sell the same stocks contemporaneously. As a result, alumni managers exhibit a higher correlation of fund returns. Moreover, the effect of alumni relationship on mutual fund investments becomes weaker when more managers are connected within the network. We also find that valuable information is shared among alumni managers: (1) the average returns for the alumni common holdings portfolios is significantly higher than those for non-alumni holdings portfolios and (2) a long-short strategy composed of stocks purchased minus sold by alumni managers yields positive and significant risk-adjusted returns.Practical implications: The findings suggest that information dissemination among connected fund managers could be one of the driving forces for mutual fund herding behavior, and that a portfolio of funds whose managers are educationally connected could be highly exposed to certain stocks and risks.Originality/value: This paper contributes to the growing finance literature addressing the influence of personal connections on information dissemination that specifically contributes to price formation. It corresponds more closely to Cohen et al. (2008), who investigate college alumni connections between fund managers and corporate board members. Since the authors simultaneously examine three potentially overlapped social networks, which are based on education, locality and fund family, the authors are able to disentangle their effects on fund managers' investment decisions. Moreover, the findings suggest that institutional investors make investment decisions based on share private information, and therefore, it also contributes to the literature on fund herding behaviors (Grinblatt et al., 1995; Wermers, 1999).

This paper examines the role of learning by observing in insurance mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by employing an international sample across 18 countries spanning the years 1990 to 2014. The empirical results support a view of semi-strong market efficiency: the long-run improvements in financial performance and risk profiles are significantly related to past M&As in the insurance industry. Moreover, we find evidence of more accurate stock market predictions of long-run financial performance and risk profiles if there are more recent insurance merger activities. This paper provides a new explanation for the controversy observed in the failure of insurance M&As to create value.

Based on a broad sample of Chinese listed firms for the period 2001–10, this study investigates the effect of stock price crash risk exposure on the cost of