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Changes in summer and diurnal precipitation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in the middle of the twenty-first century were estimated by RegCM4 with a resolution of 50 km under two representative concentration pathway scenarios. ERA-Interim, CSIRO-MK3.6.0 and MPI-ESM-MR were used as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, and two observation data sets (CN05.1 and CRU) were used to evaluate the precipitation performance. RegCM4 captured the spatial characteristics of summer precipitation in the UYRB during the reference period. Compared with the two observational data sets, the three groups of downscaling results underestimated the precipitation in the eastern part of the basin by 20% and overestimated that in the west by more than 80%. In the middle of the twenty-first century, the total precipitation (TPR) in the UYRB varied significantly from east to west. The multiyear average TPR in the eastern plains was projected to significantly decrease, while it significantly increased in the western mountains. As a major contributor to the TPR in the UYRB, convective precipitation (CPR) differed between the eastern and western regions, especially at night. The TPR changes in the east (decrease) and west (increase) were projected to be strongest in the afternoon. The probability of high-intensity precipitation in the central and western areas will increase, implying a potential increase in the risk of flooding in these areas. The diametric changes in the TPR between the east and west may further exacerbate the spatial heterogeneity of water resources, resulting in large impacts to surface hydrological processes. The spatial variations in precipitation were mainly due to the variation in precipitation mechanisms between the western mountainous area and the eastern basin, while the changes in water vapour transport and atmospheric stability also played a role.
Ya Huang; Weihua Xiao; Guibing Hou; Ling Yi; Yuanyuan Li; Yuyan Zhou. Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in the middle twenty-first century (2020–2050) as projected by RegCM4 forced by two CMIP5 global climate models. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2020, 1 -16.
AMA StyleYa Huang, Weihua Xiao, Guibing Hou, Ling Yi, Yuanyuan Li, Yuyan Zhou. Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in the middle twenty-first century (2020–2050) as projected by RegCM4 forced by two CMIP5 global climate models. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2020; ():1-16.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYa Huang; Weihua Xiao; Guibing Hou; Ling Yi; Yuanyuan Li; Yuyan Zhou. 2020. "Changes in seasonal and diurnal precipitation types during summer over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin in the middle twenty-first century (2020–2050) as projected by RegCM4 forced by two CMIP5 global climate models." Theoretical and Applied Climatology , no. : 1-16.
The statistical characteristics of precipitation play important roles not only in flood and drought risk assessments but also in water resource management. This paper implements a statistical analysis to study the spatial and temporal variability in precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hongshui River basin (UHRB), southwestern China, by analysing time series of daily precipitation from 18 weather stations during the period of 1959 to 2015. To detect precipitation concentrations and the associated patterns, three indices, the precipitation concentration index (PCI), precipitation concentration degree (PCD), and precipitation concentration period (PCP), were used. The relationships between the precipitation concentration indices (PCI, PCD, and PCP) and geographic variables (latitude, longitude, and elevation), large-scale atmospheric circulation indices, and summer monsoon indices were investigated to identify specific dependencies and spatial patterns in the precipitation distribution and concentration. The results show that high PCI values were mainly observed in the northeastern portion of the basin, whereas low PCI values were mainly detected in the southwest. The Mann-Kendall test results demonstrate that the majority of the UHRB is characterized by nonsignificant trends in the PCI, PCD, and PCP from 1959 to 2015. The PCP results reveal that rainfall in the UHRB mainly occurs in summer months, and the rainy season arrives earlier in the eastern UHRB than in the western UHRB. Additionally, the PCD results indicate that the rainfall in the western UHRB is more dispersed throughout the year than that in the eastern UHRB. Compared with other geographical factors, longitude is the most important variable that governs the spatial distribution and variations in annual precipitation and the precipitation concentration indices. Due to a combination of topography, the Indian subtropical high, and monsoon weakening, precipitation may be more concentrated in one period, especially in the eastern part of the basin, which increases the risk of drought.
Ya Huang; Hao Wang; Weihua Xiao; Li-Hua Chen; Deng-Hua Yan; Yu-Yan Zhou; Da-Chuan Jiang; Ming-Zhi Yang. Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Precipitation Concentration in the Upper Reaches of the Hongshui River Basin, Southwestern China. Advances in Meteorology 2018, 2018, 1 -19.
AMA StyleYa Huang, Hao Wang, Weihua Xiao, Li-Hua Chen, Deng-Hua Yan, Yu-Yan Zhou, Da-Chuan Jiang, Ming-Zhi Yang. Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Precipitation Concentration in the Upper Reaches of the Hongshui River Basin, Southwestern China. Advances in Meteorology. 2018; 2018 ():1-19.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYa Huang; Hao Wang; Weihua Xiao; Li-Hua Chen; Deng-Hua Yan; Yu-Yan Zhou; Da-Chuan Jiang; Ming-Zhi Yang. 2018. "Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Precipitation Concentration in the Upper Reaches of the Hongshui River Basin, Southwestern China." Advances in Meteorology 2018, no. : 1-19.
The Nanliujiang catchment is one of major rice production bases of South China. Irrigation districts play an important role in rice production which requires a large quantity of water. There are potential risks on future climate change in response to rice production, agricultural irrigation water use and pollution control locally. The SWAT model was used to quantify the yield and water footprint (WF) of rice in this catchment. A combined method of automatic and manual sub-basin delineation was used for the model setup in this work to reflect the differences between irrigation districts in yield and water use of rice. We validated our simulations against observed leaf area index, biomass and yield of rice, evapotranspiration and runoff. The outputs of three GCMs (GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and HadGEM2-ES) under three RCPs (RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5) were fed to the SWAT model. The results showed that: (a) the SWAT model is an ideal tool to simulate rice development as well as hydrology; (b) there would be increases in rice yield ranged from +1.4 to +10.6% under climate projections of GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR but slight decreases ranged from −3.5 to −0.8% under that of HadGEM2-ES; (c) the yield and WFs of rice displayed clear differences in the catchment, with a characteristic that high in the south and low in the north, mainly due to the differences in climatic conditions, soil quality and fertilization amount; (d) there would be a decrease by 45.5% in blue WF with an increase by 88.1% in green WF, which could provide favorable conditions to enlarge irrigated areas and take technical measures for improving green water use efficiency of irrigation districts; (e) a clear rise in future grey WF would present enormous challenges for the protection of water resources and environmental pollution control in this catchment. So it should be to improved nutrient management strategies for the agricultural non-point source pollution control in irrigation districts, especially for the Hongchaojiang and Hepu irrigation districts.
Mingzhi Yang; Weihua Xiao; Yong Zhao; Xudong Li; Ya Huang; Fan Lu; Baodeng Hou; Baoqi Li. Assessment of Potential Climate Change Effects on the Rice Yield and Water Footprint in the Nanliujiang Catchment, China. Sustainability 2018, 10, 242 .
AMA StyleMingzhi Yang, Weihua Xiao, Yong Zhao, Xudong Li, Ya Huang, Fan Lu, Baodeng Hou, Baoqi Li. Assessment of Potential Climate Change Effects on the Rice Yield and Water Footprint in the Nanliujiang Catchment, China. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (2):242.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMingzhi Yang; Weihua Xiao; Yong Zhao; Xudong Li; Ya Huang; Fan Lu; Baodeng Hou; Baoqi Li. 2018. "Assessment of Potential Climate Change Effects on the Rice Yield and Water Footprint in the Nanliujiang Catchment, China." Sustainability 10, no. 2: 242.
Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on water resources in higher latitude regions. Despite intensive research on possible hydrological responses in those regions to a warmer environment, our knowledge on erosion and sediment yield induced by the climate change in high-latitude headwaters is still limited. In this study, we estimated suspended sediment yields from 2021 to 2050 in a typical headwater area of far Northeast China to elucidate potential impacts of future climate change on surface runoff and erosion in higher latitude regions. We first parameterized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using historical measurements to estimate runoff from the river basin. The model performed well in both the calibration (2006–2011) and the validation (2012–2014) periods, with an R2 of 0.85 and 0.88 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.7 and 0.73, respectively. We also utilized historical measurements on sediment yields from the period 2006–2014 to develop a runoff-sediment yield rating curve, and the rating curve obtained an excellent goodness of fit (R2 = 0.91, p < 0.001). We then applied the calibrated SWAT model to two climate change projections, also known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), for the period from 2021 to 2050 to obtain future runoff estimates. These runoff estimates were then used to predict future sediment yield by using the developed runoff-sediment yield rating curve. Our study found a significant increase of annual sediment yield (p < 0.05) for both climate change projections (RCP4.5 = 237%; RCP8.5 = 133%) in this, China’s high-latitude region. The increases of sediment yield were prevalent in summer and autumn, varying from 102–299% between the two RCPs scenarios. Precipitation was the dominated factor that determined the variation of runoff and sediment yield. A warming climate could bring more snowmelt-induced spring runoff and longer rainy days in autumn, hence leading to higher erosion. These findings demonstrate that under the changing climate, soils in this high-latitude headwater area would be eroded twice to three times that of the baseline period (1981–2010), indicating a potential risk to the downstream water quality and reservoir management.
Yuyan Zhou; Y. Jun Xu; Weihua Xiao; Jianhua Wang; Ya Huang; Heng Yang. Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Suspended Sediment Yield in Headwaters of High-Latitude Regions—A Case Study in China’s Far Northeast. Water 2017, 9, 966 .
AMA StyleYuyan Zhou, Y. Jun Xu, Weihua Xiao, Jianhua Wang, Ya Huang, Heng Yang. Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Suspended Sediment Yield in Headwaters of High-Latitude Regions—A Case Study in China’s Far Northeast. Water. 2017; 9 (12):966.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuyan Zhou; Y. Jun Xu; Weihua Xiao; Jianhua Wang; Ya Huang; Heng Yang. 2017. "Climate Change Impacts on Flow and Suspended Sediment Yield in Headwaters of High-Latitude Regions—A Case Study in China’s Far Northeast." Water 9, no. 12: 966.
This study analyzes the duration and division of the flood season in the Fenhe River Basin over the period of 1957–2014 based on daily precipitation data collected from 14 meteorological stations. The Mann–Kendall detection, the multiscale moving t-test, and the Fisher optimal partition methods are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on flood season duration and division. The results show that the duration of the flood season has extended in 1975–2014 compared to that in 1957–1974. Specifically, the onset date of the flood season has advanced 15 days, whereas the retreat date of the flood season remains almost the same. The flood season of the Fenhe River Basin can be divided into three stages, and the variations in the onset and retreat dates of each stage are also examined. Corresponding measures are also proposed to better utilize the flood resources to adapt to the flood season variations.
Hejia Wang; Weihua Xiao; Jianhua Wang; Yicheng Wang; Ya Huang; Baodeng Hou; Chuiyu Lu. The Impact of Climate Change on the Duration and Division of Flood Season in the Fenhe River Basin, China. Water 2016, 8, 105 .
AMA StyleHejia Wang, Weihua Xiao, Jianhua Wang, Yicheng Wang, Ya Huang, Baodeng Hou, Chuiyu Lu. The Impact of Climate Change on the Duration and Division of Flood Season in the Fenhe River Basin, China. Water. 2016; 8 (3):105.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHejia Wang; Weihua Xiao; Jianhua Wang; Yicheng Wang; Ya Huang; Baodeng Hou; Chuiyu Lu. 2016. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Duration and Division of Flood Season in the Fenhe River Basin, China." Water 8, no. 3: 105.