Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on water resources in higher latitude regions. Despite intensive research on possible hydrological responses in those regions to a warmer environment, our knowledge on erosion and sediment yield induced by the climate change in high-latitude headwaters is still limited. In this study, we estimated suspended sediment yields from 2021 to 2050 in a typical headwater area of far Northeast China to elucidate potential impacts of future climate change on surface runoff and erosion in higher latitude regions. We first parameterized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using historical measurements to estimate runoff from the river basin. The model performed well in both the calibration (2006–2011) and the validation (2012–2014) periods, with an R² of 0.85 and 0.88 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.7 and 0.73, respectively. We also utilized historical measurements on sediment yields from the period 2006–2014 to develop a runoff-sediment yield rating curve, and the rating curve obtained an excellent goodness of fit (R² = 0.91, p < 0.001). We then applied the calibrated SWAT model to two climate change projections, also known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), for the period from 2021 to 2050 to obtain future runoff estimates. These runoff estimates were then used to predict future sediment yield by using the developed runoff-sediment yield rating curve. Our study found a significant increase of annual sediment yield (p < 0.05) for both climate change projections (RCP4.5 = 237%; RCP8.5 = 133%) in this, China’s high-latitude region. The increases of sediment yield were prevalent in summer and autumn, varying from 102–299% between the two RCPs scenarios. Precipitation was the dominated factor that determined the variation of runoff and sediment yield. A warming climate could bring more snowmelt-induced spring runoff and longer rainy days in autumn, hence leading to higher erosion. These findings demonstrate that under the changing climate, soils in this high-latitude headwater area would be eroded twice to three times that of the baseline period (1981–2010), indicating a potential risk to the downstream water quality and reservoir management.

Evapotranspiration (ET) has undergone profound changes as a result of global climate change and anthropogenic activities. The construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) has led to changes in its land use/land cover (LUCC) and local climate, which in turn has changed ET processes in the TGR region. In this paper, the CLM4.5 land surface model is used to simulate and analyze the spatiotemporal variability of ET between 1993 and 2013. Four experiments were conducted to quantify the contribution rate of climate change and LUCC to changes in ET processes. The results show that the climate showed a warming and drying trend from 1993 to 2013, and the LUCC indicates decreasing cropland with increasing forest, grassland, water bodies and urban areas. These changes increased the mean annual ET by 13.76 mm after impoundment. Spatially, the vegetation transpiration accounts for the largest proportion in ET. The decreasing relative humidity and increasing wind speeds led to an increase in vegetation transpiration and ground evaporation, respectively, in the center of the TGR region, while the LUCC drove changes in ET in water bodies, urban areas and high-altitude regions in the TGR region.

Water and energy are basic resources for urban development. It is of extreme importance to balance economic development, water and energy security, and environmental sustainability at the city level. Although many studies have focused on energy-related CO₂ emissions or water resources, individually, in relation to socioeconomic development, few studies have considered water and energy-related CO₂ emissions as synchronous limiting factors. Here, taking Beijing as an example, a partial least squares STIRPAT model—a method that combines partial least squares with the STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model—was used to determine the main driving factors of water use and energy-related CO₂ emissions at the regional scale from 1996 to 2016. The empirical results showed that the population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization level, technology level, and service level, are all important factors that influence the total water use and energy-related CO₂ emissions. Additionally, eight scenarios were established to explore suitable development modes for future years. Consequently, a medium growth rate in socioeconomic status and population, and a high growth rate in the technology and service level, were found to be the most appropriate development modes. This scenario would result in a total water use of 4432.13 million m³ and energy-related CO₂ emissions of 173.64 million tons in 2030. The results provide a new perspective for decision makers to explore suitable measures for simultaneously conserving water resources and reducing energy-related CO₂ emissions in the context of urban development.