Wetlands provide multiple ecosystem services of local and global importance, but currently there exists no comprehensive, high‐quality wetland map for the Arctic region. Improved information about Arctic wetland extents and their vulnerability to climate change is essential for adaptation and mitigation efforts, including for indigenous people dependent on the ecosystem services that wetlands provide, as inadequate planning could result in dire consequences for societies and ecosystems alike. Synthesizing high‐resolution wetland databases and datasets on soil wetness and soil types from multiple sources, we created the first high‐resolution map with full coverage of Arctic wetlands. We assess the vulnerability of Arctic wetlands for the years 2050, 2075, and 2100, using datasets on permafrost extent, soil types, and projected mean annual air temperature from the HadGEM2‐ES climate model for three change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Our mapping shows that wetlands cover approximately 3.5 million km2 or roughly 25% of Arctic landmass and 99% of these wetlands are in permafrost areas, indicating considerable vulnerability to future climate change. Unless global warming is limited to scenario RCP2.6, robust results show that large areas of Arctic wetlands are vulnerable to ecosystem regime shifts. If scenario RCP8.5 becomes a reality, at least 50% of the Arctic wetland area would be highly vulnerable to regime shifts with considerable adverse impacts on human health, infrastructure, economics, ecosystems, and biodiversity. The developed wetland and vulnerability maps can aid planning and prioritization of the most vulnerable areas for protection and mitigation of change.
The first mile/last mile (FM/LM) problem in public transport refers to the spatial accessibility of public transport and is the most important factor determining whether an individual will choose public transport. The FM/LM problem in Stockholm County, Sweden, was evaluated using a Geographic Information System estimating distances to public transport for the years 2019 and 2035. Overall, the population in Stockholm County, have good access to public transport. However, access varies with abilities, with elderly having 50 percent and elderly impaired 15 percent of their area within walking distance to public transport compared with the average citizen. Planned developments can provide good access to public transport, with extensive improvements for the elderly. However, inadequate planning for population increase will likely decrease the perceived public transport accessibility. Apartments and commercial buildings in the study area have high access to public transport. Elderly people have good access within city and regional centers, while access could be improved in other areas. Inclusion of FM/LM in the planning support system used in Stockholm could help mitigate FM/LM problems and extend access to public transport to all people of different abilities. This is vital in creating sustainable mobility networks and achieving sustainable development in smart cities.
Population growth is increasing the pressure on water resource availability. For useful assessment and planning for societal water availability impacts, it is imperative to disentangle the direct influences of human activities in the landscape from external climate‐driven influences on water flows and their variation and change. In this study we used the water balance model, a gridded global hydrological model, to quantify and distinguish human‐driven change components, modified by interventions such as dams, reservoirs, and water withdrawals for irrigation, industry, and households, from climate‐driven change components on four key water balance variables in the terrestrial hydrological system (evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture, storage change). We also analyzed emergent effect patterns in and across different parts of the world, facilitating exploration of spatial variability and regional patterns on multiple spatial scales, from pixel to global, including previously uninvestigated parts of the world. Our results show that human activities drive changes in all hydrological variables, with different magnitudes and directions depending on geographical location. The differences between model scenarios with and without human activities were largest in regions with the highest population densities. In such regions, which also have relatively large numbers of dams for irrigation, water largely tends to be removed from storage and go to feed increased runoff and evapotranspiration fluxes. Our analysis considers a more complete set of hydrological variables than previous studies and can guide further research and management planning for future hydrological and water availability trends, including in relatively data‐poor parts of the world.
16 January 2023 in Science of The Total Environment
Despite strong interest and conflict research spanning multiple disciplines, connections between water flows and conflicts remain unclear, due to incomplete datasets on water-related conflict-cooperation events and poor understanding of socioeconomic and biophysical causes of such conflicts. The dataset on water-related conflict-cooperation events compiled in this study extends to 2019, updating previous datasets that covered only up to 2008, yielding important new insights on cooperation-conflict trends. Global and regional trends were analyzed using the new events dataset, together with changes in hydroclimatic variables and population density. The analysis revealed that water-related cooperation was far more common than conflicts across all regions, in both drier and wetter climates, indicating that abundance and lack of water can both promote cooperation. However, conflict events were more common in drier climates where water is scarcer. This cooperation-conflict balance shifted in the 2000s, with conflict events increasing, to outnumber cooperation events in 2017. The main shift occurred in Africa and Asia, where increased conflicts in Africa coincided with a prolonged period of below-average precipitation and severe drought, while the shift in Asia coincided with increased evapotranspiration caused by human activities and increased population density. Differences between regions were confirmed by event descriptions, with events in Africa relating to water access and farmer-herder conflicts, and events in Asia relating to irrigation and dam construction. These differences highlight the need for regional-scale analysis of water-related conflict-cooperation trends and pathways. With climate change and human activities expected to increase, the increasing trend in conflict events could persist, with water resources becoming a more frequent cause of future conflict. Identifying these complex cooperation-conflict changes is vital in determining future actions required to reduce conflict events and promote cooperation on water.
Climate change is known to worsen conflicts, but its combination with other factors affecting water-related conflicts remains less explored. Using a scoping review, this study examined research in the climate–water–conflict nexus. Using semi-automatic text mining approaches, key research gaps and differences in conflict factors and themes across different regions and conflict types were analyzed. Studies focused on Asia and Africa, with few exploring other regions. Governance and livelihoods emerged as significant factors in water-related conflict responses worldwide, with differences across regions. For instance, farmer–herder conflicts were common in Africa, while agriculture was more related to governance and water management in Asia. Research priorities forward should diversify the range of water-related conflict subjects and regions and give special focus to regions vulnerable to hydroclimatic change. More focus on cooperation and non-violent conflicts is also vital for understanding and being able to project and mitigate future water-related conflict responses to climate change.
Global sustainability challenges associated with increasing resource demands from a growing population call for resource-efficient land-use strategies that address multiple sustainability issues. Multifunctional agroforestry-based phytoremediation (MAP) is one such strategy that can simultaneously capture carbon, decontaminate soils, and provide diverse incomes for local farmers. Chinandega, Nicaragua, is a densely populated agricultural region with heavily polluted soils. Four different MAP systems scenarios relevant to Chinandega were created and carbon sequestration potentials were calculated using CO2FIX. All scenarios showed the potential to store significantly more carbon than conventional farming practices, ranging from 2.5 to 8.0 Mg CO2eq ha−1 yr−1. Overall, carbon sequestration in crops is relatively small, but results in increased soil organic carbon (SOC), especially in perennials, and the combination of crops and trees provide higher carbon sequestration rates than monoculture. Changes in SOC are crucial for long-term carbon sequestration, here ranging between 0.4 and 0.9 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, with the most given in scenario 4, an alley cropping system with pollarded trees with prunings used as green mulch. The adoption rate of multifunctional strategies providing both commodity and non-commodity outputs, such as carbon sequestration, would likely increase if phytoremediation is included. Well-designed MAP systems could help reduce land-use conflicts, provide healthier soil, act as climate change mitigation, and have positive impacts on local health and economies.