Vegetation in Northeast China (NEC) has faced dual challenges posed by climate change and human activities. However, the factors dominating vegetation development and their contribution remain unclear. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the response of vegetation in different land cover types, climate regions, and time scales to water availability from 1990 to 2018 based on the relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The effects of human activities and climate change on vegetation development were quantitatively evaluated using the residual analysis method. We found that the area percentage with positive correlation between NDVI and SPEI increased with time scales. NDVI of grass, sparse vegetation, rain-fed crop, and built-up land as well as sub-humid and semi-arid areas (drylands) correlated positively with SPEI, and the correlations increased with time scales. The negatively correlated area was concentrated in humid areas or areas covered by forests and shrubs. Vegetation water surplus in humid areas weakens with warming, and vegetation water constraints in drylands enhance. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration had an overall negative effect on vegetation, and precipitation was a controlling factor for vegetation development in semi-arid areas. A total of 53% of the total area in NEC showed a trend of improvement, which is mainly attributed to human activities (93%), especially through the implementation of ecological restoration projects in NEC. The relative role of human activities and climate change in vegetation degradation areas were 56% and 44%, respectively. Our findings highlight that the government should more explicitly consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influence of human activities and water availability on vegetation under changing climate and improve the resilience of regional water resources. The relative proportions and roles map of climate change and human activities in vegetation change areas provide a basis for government to formulate local-based management policies.

Long-term drought variation provides a scientific foundation for water resource planning and drought mitigation. However, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of drought in northeast China (NEC) are unclear. We conducted a comprehensive assessment of drought status and trends based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in NEC from 1990 until 2018. The findings show that: (1) the drying trend peaked in 2001, and then exhibited a mitigation tendency before drying again after 2013. The implementation of ecological restoration projects is primarily responsible for drought mitigation. (2) The areas with wetting and drying trends in the future would cover 86% and 17% of NEC, respectively. (3) There is a time lag between improved vegetation and the trend shift from dry to wet. (4) Spring and winter revealed wet trends within 71% and 84% of NEC, respectively, showing high sensitivity and resilience to drought, while 92–93% of NEC displayed dry tendencies during the summer and autumn seasons. The drought-affected area was the highest in summer and lowest in autumn. (5) The interannual drought severity was highest in May and June. (6) The highest drought impacts and trends occur within shrub and grass and sparsely vegetated land, as well as middle-temperate semiarid regions (M-semiarid). (7) The warmer the temperature zone, the more sensitive it is towards drought under the same hydrological conditions, showing a high drought-affected area. The drier the land, the higher the drought-affected area within the same temperature zone, with pronounced drought trends during the spring and summer seasons. Our findings highlight the need for the government to more explicitly develop drought mitigation strategies in accordance with NEC’s spatiotemporal drought variations and specifically the need to concentrate on droughts in M-semiarid regions occurring in summer, particularly in May and June.

Vegetation in Northeast China (NEC) has faced dual challenges posed by climate change and human activities. However, the factors dominating vegetation development and their contribution remain unclear and cannot be precisely discussed. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the response of vegetation in different land cover types, climate regions, and time scales to water availability from 1990 to 2018 based on the relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The effects of human activities and climate change on vegetation development were quantitatively evaluated using the residual analysis method. We showed that the area percentage with a positive correlation between NDVI and SPEI increases with the extension of time scales. NDVI of grass, sparse vegetation, rain-fed crop, and built-up land as well as sub-humid and semi-arid areas (drylands) correlated positively with SPEI, and the correlations increased with the extension of time scales. The negatively correlated area was concentrated in humid areas or areas covered by forests and shrubs. The maximum water surplus period for irrigated crops and forests, shrubs, wetlands, humid areas were 1-month and 6-months, respectively. Vegetation water surplus in humid areas weakens with warming, and vegetation water constraints in drylands enhance. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration had an overall negative effect on vegetation and precipitation is a controlling factor for vegetation development in semi-arid areas. Within the period of study, 53% of the vegetated area in NEC showed a trend of improvement, which is mainly attributed to human activities (93%), especially through the implementation of ecological restoration projects in NEC. The relative role of human activities and climate change in vegetation degradation areas were 56% and 44%, respectively. Our findings highlight that the government should more explicitly consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influence of human activities and water availability on vegetation under changing climate, and improve the resilience of regional water resources. The relative proportions and roles map of climate change and human activities in vegetation change areas provide a basis for government to formulate local-based management policies.