Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981–2010), considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km², particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today’s cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers’ profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today’s global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s’ demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

Vegetation in Northeast China (NEC) has faced dual challenges posed by climate change and human activities. However, the factors dominating vegetation development and their contribution remain unclear. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the response of vegetation in different land cover types, climate regions, and time scales to water availability from 1990 to 2018 based on the relationship between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The effects of human activities and climate change on vegetation development were quantitatively evaluated using the residual analysis method. We found that the area percentage with positive correlation between NDVI and SPEI increased with time scales. NDVI of grass, sparse vegetation, rain-fed crop, and built-up land as well as sub-humid and semi-arid areas (drylands) correlated positively with SPEI, and the correlations increased with time scales. The negatively correlated area was concentrated in humid areas or areas covered by forests and shrubs. Vegetation water surplus in humid areas weakens with warming, and vegetation water constraints in drylands enhance. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration had an overall negative effect on vegetation, and precipitation was a controlling factor for vegetation development in semi-arid areas. A total of 53% of the total area in NEC showed a trend of improvement, which is mainly attributed to human activities (93%), especially through the implementation of ecological restoration projects in NEC. The relative role of human activities and climate change in vegetation degradation areas were 56% and 44%, respectively. Our findings highlight that the government should more explicitly consider the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influence of human activities and water availability on vegetation under changing climate and improve the resilience of regional water resources. The relative proportions and roles map of climate change and human activities in vegetation change areas provide a basis for government to formulate local-based management policies.

Prolonged drought and susceptibility to biotic stressors induced an extensive calamity in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and widespread crown defoliation in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Central Europe. For future management decisions, it is crucial to link changes in canopy cover to site conditions. However, current knowledge on the role of soil properties for drought-induced forest disturbance is limited due to the scarcity and low spatial resolution of soil information. We present a fine-scale assessment on the role of soil properties for forest disturbance in Norway spruce and European beech derived from optical remote sensing. A forest disturbance modeling framework based on Sentinel-2 time series was applied on 340 km² in low mountain ranges of Central Germany. Spatio-temporal information on forest disturbance was calculated at 10 m spatial resolution in the period 2019-2021 and intersected with high-resolution soil information (1:10,000) based on roughly 2850 soil profiles. We found distinct differences in disturbed area, depending on soil type, texture, stoniness, effective rooting depth and available water capacity (AWC). For spruce, we found a polynomial relationship between AWC (R² = 0.7) and disturbance, with highest disturbed area (65 %) for AWC between 90 and 160 mm. Interestingly, we found no evidence for generally higher disturbance on shallow soils, although stands on the deepest soils were significantly less affected. Noteworthy, sites affected first did not necessarily exhibit highest proportions of disturbed area post-drought, indicating recovery or adaptation. We conclude that site- and species-specific understanding of drought impacts benefits from a combination of remote sensing and fine-scale soil information. Since our approach revealed which sites were affected first and most, it qualifies for prioritizing in situ monitoring activities to most vulnerable stands in acute drought conditions as well as for developing long-term strategies for reforestation and site-specific risk assessment for precision forestry.