A dynamic building stock model is applied to simulate the development of dwelling stocks in 11 European countries, over half of all European dwellings, between 1900 and 2050. The model uses time series of population and number of persons per dwelling, as well as demolition and renovation probability functions that have been derived for each country. The model performs well at simulating the long-term changes in dwelling stock composition and expected annual renovation activities. Despite differences in data collection and reporting, the modelled future trends for construction, demolition and renovation activities lead to similar patterns emerging in all countries. The model estimates future renovation activity due to the stock’s need for maintenance as a result of ageing. The simulations show only minor future increases in the renovation rates across all 11 countries to between 0.6–1.6%, falling short of the 2.5–3.0% renovation rates that are assumed in many decarbonisation scenarios. Despite this, 78% of all dwellings could benefit from energy efficiency measures by 2050, either as they are constructed (31%) or undergo deep renovation (47%). However, as no more than one deep renovation cycle is likely on this timeframe, it is crucial to install the most energy efficient measures available at these opportunities

Current waste generation from the construction and demolition industry (C&D industry) in Norway is about 1.25 million tonnes per year. This article presents a procedure for projection of future waste amounts by estimating the activity level in the C&D industry, determining specific waste generation factors related to this activity, and finally calculating projections on flows of waste materials leaving the stocks in use and moving into the waste management system. This is done through a simple model of stocks and flows of buildings and materials. Monte Carlo simulation is used in the calculations to account for uncertainties related to the input parameters in order to make the results more robust. The results show a significant increase in C&D waste for the years to come, especially for the large fractions of concrete/bricks and wood. These projections can be a valuable source of information to predict the future need for waste treatment capacity, the dominant waste fractions, and the challenges in future waste handling systems. The proposed method is used in a forthcoming companion article for eco‐efficiency modeling within an evaluation of a C&D waste system.

The architecture, engineering and construction industry is a major producer of waste, and a major consumer of primary materials. This study presents a method for analysing the dynamics of both floor area and material use in residential housing. The population's demand for housing represents the driver in the system, and the subsequent effects on stocks and flows of residential floor area and building materials in Norway are investigated from 1900 to the projected demands for 2100. Results show that knowledge about past activity levels is important in projecting future levels. Scenarios are applied to the input parameters in the dynamic model to investigate the impacts of changes in these, including variations in material usage (concrete and wood) and material density. All but one scenario suggest a continued increase in the residential housing stock, although at diminishing growth rates, and a substantial increase in demolition, renovation and construction activity in the last half of the present century. Le secteur de l'architecture, de l'ingénierie et de la construction est un des principaux producteurs de déchets et figure parmi les premiers consommateurs de matières premières. Cette étude présente une méthode d'analyse de l'évolution des surfaces de plancher et de l'utilisation des matériaux dans le logement résidentiel. Le moteur du système est la demande de la population en matière de logement et l'étude examine les effets de cette demande sur les « stocks » et les flux de surfaces résidentielles et de matériaux de construction en Norvège depuis 1900 et, en projection, jusqu'en 2100. Les résultats montrent qu'une bonne connaissance des activités passées est importante pour prévoir les niveaux à venir. Des scénarios appliqués aux paramètres d'entrée du modèle dynamique permettent d'étudier les conséquences de leurs variations, notamment en ce qui concerne l'utilisation des matériaux (béton et bois) et leur densité. Tous ces scénarios, à l'exception d'un seul, prévoient une croissance continue du parc de logements résidentiels – avec un rythme toutefois moins soutenu – ainsi qu'une augmentation substantielle des activités de démolition, de rénovation et de construction au cours de la seconde moitié de ce siècle. Mots clés: parc de bâtiments démolition parc de logements résidentiels analyse dynamique du flux des matériaux demande en matériaux tendances génération de déchets