Identifying and quantifying the influential factors on incident clearance time can benefit incident management for accident causal analysis and prediction, and consequently mitigate the impact of non-recurrent congestion. Traditional incident clearance time studies rely on either statistical models with rigorous assumptions or artificial intelligence (AI) approaches with poor interpretability. This paper proposes a novel method, gradient boosting decision trees (GBDTs), to predict the nonlinear and imbalanced incident clearance time based on different types of explanatory variables. The GBDT inherits both the advantages of statistical models and AI approaches, and can identify the complex and nonlinear relationship while computing the relative importance among variables. One-year crash data from Washington state, USA, incident tracking system are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of GBDT method. Based on the distribution of incident clearance time, two groups are categorized for prediction with a 15-min threshold. A comparative study confirms that the GBDT method is significantly superior to other algorithms for incidents with both short and long clearance times. In addition, incident response time is found to be the greatest contributor to short clearance time with more than 41% relative importance, while traffic volume generates the second greatest impact on incident clearance time with relative importance of 27.34% and 19.56%, respectively.

Accurate metro ridership prediction can guide passengers in efficiently selecting their departure time and transferring from station to station. An increasing number of deep learning algorithms are being utilized to forecast metro ridership due to the development of computational intelligence. However, limited efforts have been exerted to consider spatiotemporal features, which are important in forecasting ridership through deep learning methods, in large-scale metro networks. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a parallel architecture comprising convolutional neural network (CNN) and bi-directional long short-term memory network (BLSTM) to extract spatial and temporal features, respectively. Metro ridership data are transformed into ridership images and time series. Spatial features can be learned from ridership image data by using CNN, which demonstrates favorable performance in video detection. Time series data are input into the BLSTM which considers the historical and future impacts of ridership in temporal feature extraction. The two networks are concatenated in parallel and prevented from interfering with each other. Joint spatiotemporal features are fed into a fully connected network for metro ridership prediction. The Beijing metro network is used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. The proposed model outperforms traditional statistical models, deep learning architectures, and sequential structures, and is suitable for ridership prediction in large-scale metro networks. Metro authorities can thus effectively allocate limited resources to overcrowded areas for service improvement.

Understanding the relationship between short-term subway ridership and its influential factors is crucial to improving the accuracy of short-term subway ridership prediction. Although there has been a growing body of studies on short-term ridership prediction approaches, limited effort is made to investigate the short-term subway ridership prediction considering bus transfer activities and temporal features. To fill this gap, a relatively recent data mining approach called gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) is applied to short-term subway ridership prediction and used to capture the associations with the independent variables. Taking three subway stations in Beijing as the cases, the short-term subway ridership and alighting passengers from its adjacent bus stops are obtained based on transit smart card data. To optimize the model performance with different combinations of regularization parameters, a series of GBDT models are built with various learning rates and tree complexities by fitting a maximum of trees. The optimal model performance confirms that the gradient boosting approach can incorporate different types of predictors, fit complex nonlinear relationships, and automatically handle the multicollinearity effect with high accuracy. In contrast to other machine learning methods—or “black-box” procedures—the GBDT model can identify and rank the relative influences of bus transfer activities and temporal features on short-term subway ridership. These findings suggest that the GBDT model has considerable advantages in improving short-term subway ridership prediction in a multimodal public transportation system.

Subway short-term ridership forecasting plays an important role in intelligent transportation systems. However, limited efforts have been made to forecast the subway short-term ridership, accounting for dynamic volatility. The traditional forecasting methods can only provide point values that are unable to offer enough information on the volatility/uncertainty of the forecasting results. To fill this gap, the aim of this paper is to incorporate the dynamic volatility into the subway short-term ridership forecasting process that not only generates the expected value of the short-term ridership but also obtains the prediction interval. Four kinds of the integrated ARIMA and GARCH models are constructed to model the mean part and volatility part of the short-term ridership. The performance of the proposed method is investigated with the real subway short-term ridership data from three stations in Beijing. The model results show that the proposed model outperforms the traditional model for all three stations. The hybrid model can significantly improving the reliability of the predicted point value by reducing the mean prediction interval length of the ridership, and improve the prediction interval coverage probability. Considering the different traffic patterns between weekday and weekend, the short-term ridership is also modeled, respectively. This paper can help management understand the dynamic volatility of the subway short-term ridership, and have the potential to disseminate more reliable subway information to travelers through the information systems.