Accurate metro ridership prediction can guide passengers in efficiently selecting their departure time and transferring from station to station. An increasing number of deep learning algorithms are being utilized to forecast metro ridership due to the development of computational intelligence. However, limited efforts have been exerted to consider spatiotemporal features, which are important in forecasting ridership through deep learning methods, in large-scale metro networks. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a parallel architecture comprising convolutional neural network (CNN) and bi-directional long short-term memory network (BLSTM) to extract spatial and temporal features, respectively. Metro ridership data are transformed into ridership images and time series. Spatial features can be learned from ridership image data by using CNN, which demonstrates favorable performance in video detection. Time series data are input into the BLSTM which considers the historical and future impacts of ridership in temporal feature extraction. The two networks are concatenated in parallel and prevented from interfering with each other. Joint spatiotemporal features are fed into a fully connected network for metro ridership prediction. The Beijing metro network is used to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. The proposed model outperforms traditional statistical models, deep learning architectures, and sequential structures, and is suitable for ridership prediction in large-scale metro networks. Metro authorities can thus effectively allocate limited resources to overcrowded areas for service improvement.
Bike sharing systems, aiming at providing the missing links in public transportation systems, are becoming popular in urban cities. A key to success for a bike sharing systems is the effectiveness of rebalancing operations, that is, the efforts of restoring the number of bikes in each station to its target value by routing vehicles through pick-up and drop-off operations. There are two major issues for this bike rebalancing problem: the determination of station inventory target level and the large scale multiple capacitated vehicle routing optimization with outlier stations. The key challenges include demand prediction accuracy for inventory target level determination, and an effective optimizer for vehicle routing with hundreds of stations. To this end, in this paper, we develop a Meteorology Similarity Weighted K-Nearest-Neighbor (MSWK) regressor to predict the station pick-up demand based on large-scale historic trip records. Based on further analysis on the station network constructed by station-station connections and the trip duration, we propose an inter station bike transition (ISBT) model to predict the station drop-off demand. Then, we provide a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) formulation of multiple capacitated bike routing problem with the objective of minimizing total travel distance. To solve it, we propose an Adaptive Capacity Constrained K-centers Clustering (AdaCCKC) algorithm to separate outlier stations (the demands of these stations are very large and make the optimization infeasible) and group the rest stations into clusters within which one vehicle is scheduled to redistribute bikes between stations. In this way, the large scale multiple vehicle routing problem is reduced to inner cluster one vehicle routing problem with guaranteed feasible solutions. Finally, the extensive experimental results on the NYC Citi Bike system show the advantages of our approach for bike demand prediction and large-scale bike rebalancing optimization.
1 December 2017 in Computers & Industrial Engineering
Multivariate time series anomaly detection has great potentials in many practical applications. Extreme unbalanced training set and noise interference make it challenging to accurately capture the distribution of normal data and then detect anomalies. Existing AutoEncoder(AE)-based approaches are lack of effective regularization method specially designed for anomaly detection tasks thus easily overfitting while Generative Adversarial Network(GAN)-based approaches are mostly trained under the hypothesis of pollution-free training set, which means the training set is all composed of normal samples and that is hard to satisfy in practice. To tackle these problems, in this paper we propose a GAN based anomaly detection method for multivariate time series named FGANomaly (letter F is for Filter). The core idea is to filter possible anomalous samples with pseudo-labels before training the discriminator thus to capture the distribution of normal data as precise as possible. In addition, we design a novel training objective for the generator, which leads the generator to concentrate more on plausible normal data and ignore anomalies. We conducted comprehensive experiments on four public datasets, and the experimental results show the superiority of our method over baselines in both performance and robustness.