Accurate predictions of photovoltaic generation are essential for effectively managing power system resources, particularly in the face of high variability in solar radiation. This is especially crucial in microgrids and grids, where the proper operation of generation, load, and storage resources is necessary to avoid grid imbalance conditions. Therefore, the availability of reliable prediction models is of utmost importance. Authors address this issue investigating the potential benefits of a machine learning approach in combination with photovoltaic power forecasts generated using weather models. Several machine learning methods have been tested for the combined approach (linear model, Long Short-Term Memory, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine). Among them, the linear models were demonstrated to be the most effective with at least an RMSE improvement of 3.7% in photovoltaic production forecasting, with respect to two numerical weather prediction based baseline methods. The conducted analysis shows how machine learning models can be used to refine the prediction of an already established PV generation forecast model and highlights the efficacy of linear models, even in a low-data regime as in the case of recently established plants.

Electrical load forecasting has a fundamental role in the decision-making process of energy system operators. When many users are connected to the grid, high-performance forecasting models are required, posing several problems associated with the availability of historical energy consumption data for each end-user and training, deploying and maintaining a model for each user. Moreover, introducing new end-users to an existing network poses problems relating to their forecasting model. Global models, trained on all available data, are emerging as the best solution in several contexts, because they show higher generalization performance, being able to leverage the patterns that are similar across different time series. In this work, the lodging/residential electricity 1-h-ahead load forecasting of multiple time series for smart grid applications is addressed using global models, suggesting the effectiveness of such an approach also in the energy context. Results obtained on a subset of the Great Energy Predictor III dataset with several global models are compared to results obtained with local models based on the same methods, showing that global models can perform similarly to the local ones, while presenting simpler deployment and maintainability. In this work, the forecasting of a new time series, representing a new end-user introduced in the pre-existing network, is also approached under specific assumptions, by using a global model trained using data related to the existing end-users. Results reveal that the forecasting model pre-trained on data related to other end-users allows the attainment of good forecasting performance also for new end-users.

Integration of DC grids into AC networks will realize hybrid AC/DC grids, a new energetic paradigm which will become widespread in the future due to the increasing availability of DC-based generators, loads and storage systems. Furthermore, the huge connection of intermittent renewable sources to distribution grids could cause security and congestion issues affecting line behaviour and reliability performance. This paper aims to propose a planning tool for congestion forecasting and reliability assessment of overhead distribution lines. The tool inputs consist of a single line diagram of a real or synthetic grid and a set of 24-h forecasting time series concerning climatic conditions and grid resource operative profiles. The developed approach aims to avoid congestions criticalities, taking advantage of optimal active power dispatching among “congestion-nearby resources”. A case study is analysed to validate the implemented control strategy considering a modified IEEE 14-Bus System with introduction of renewables. The tool also implements reliability prediction formulas to calculate an overhead line reliability function in congested and congestions-avoided conditions. A quantitative evaluation underlines the reliability performance achievable after the congestion strategy action.

This paper deals with the optimal scheduling of the resources of a renewable energy community, whose coordination is aimed at providing flexibility services to the electrical distribution network. The available resources are renewable generation units, battery energy storage systems, dispatchable loads, and power-to-hydrogen systems. The main purposes behind the proposed strategy are enhancement of self-consumption and hydrogen production from local resources and the maximization of the economic benefits derived from both the selling of hydrogen and the subsidies given to the community for the shared energy. The proposed approach is formulated as an economic problem accounting for the perspectives of both community members and the distribution system operator. In more detail, a mixed-integer constrained non-linear optimization problem is formulated. Technical constraints related to the resources and the power flows in the electrical grid are considered. Numerical applications allow for verifying the effectiveness of the procedure. The results show that it is possible to increase self-consumption and the production of green hydrogen while providing flexibility services through the exploitation of community resources in terms of active and reactive power support. More specifically, the application of the proposed strategy to different case studies showed that daily revenues of up to EUR 1000 for each MW of renewable energy generation installed can be obtained. This value includes the benefit obtained thanks to the provision of flexibility services, which contribute about 58% of the total.

Power systems comprise different electrical, electronic, electromechanical and electrochemical components. Adequacy, security, resilience and reliability represent essential requirements for grids functioning mode. The evaluation of such aspects can constitute a delicate task in the presence of heterogeneous components. Focusing on reliability assessment, several Reliability Prediction Models are available. They are suitably applied according to the type of component under evaluation. The lack of homogeneity of these models forbids the comparison of performance and identification of unreliable systems and grid section. This paper aims to face the mentioned issue proposing a unique reliability assessment methodology able to characterize different equipment connected to radial/meshed/ring grids and subjected to different stressing and ageing factors. It is customized for electrical lines, transformers, circuit breakers, converters and renewables plants. Component and systemic key indices are calculated. Furthermore, a novel “load feeding reliability“ indicator is evaluated for providing information about the supply reliability of a specific load. This index is meaningful for the identification of unreliable grids, microgrids and systems. Such an approach can contribute to improve power systems design, planning and control. The proposed method is integrated in a software application implemented for grid reliability assessment. The obtained results are reported for an urban grid including an underground transportation area.

The decarbonization of the electricity grid is one of the actions that can help reduce fossil fuel emissions, and thus their impact on global warming in the future. This decarbonization will be achieved mainly through the integration and widespread diffusion of renewable power sources. This is also going to be supported by the shift from the paradigm of production–transmission–distribution, where electricity production oversees large-size power plants, to renewable-based distributed/diffused production, where electricity is generated very close or even by the same (group of) user(s) (or prosumers in the latter case). The number of mid-/small-size installations based on renewable energy technologies will therefore increase substantially, and the related renewable generation will be dominant against that from large-size power plants. Unfortunately, this will very likely reduce the reliability of the grid, unless appropriate countermeasures are taken/implemented, hopefully at the same time that the paradigm shift is being achieved. To this aim, it is important to identify the anomalies and main fault causes that might possibly affect some of the central renewable (wind, PV, hydrogen) and ancillary technologies that will be used to establish future renewable-based power systems. Accordingly, this paper presents a literature survey, also extending the focus to related datasets that can be used for deeper investigation. It is highlighted that the gaps mainly refer to a lack of a common taxonomy that prevents the establishment of structured knowledge in the scope of renewable-based power systems, a lack of contributions to anomalies/faults specific to wind turbines, and a lack of datasets related to electrolyzers, fuel cells, DC/x conversion, and monitoring and communication systems. Further, in the case of monitoring and communication systems, the scientific literature is both very dated, therefore not considering possible new aspects that would be currently worthy of investigation, and not oriented toward the particular domain addressed, thus considering peculiar aspects that are left out.