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Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi
EawagSwiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Duebendorf Switzerland

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Primary research article
Published: 09 April 2021 in Global Change Biology
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Freshwater biodiversity loss is a major concern, and global warming is already playing a significant role in species extinctions. Our main goal was to predict climate change impacts on aquatic insect species distribution and richness in Swiss running waters according to two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), using different modeling approaches, i.e. species distribution models (SDMs), stacked‐SDMs (S‐SDMs) and a macroecological model (MEM). We analyzed 10,808 reaches, used as spatial units for model predictions, for a total river network length of 20,610 km. Results were assessed at both the countrywide and the biogeographic regional scales. We used incidence data of 41 species of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) from 259 sites distributed across Switzerland. We integrated a coupled model for hydrology and glacier retreat to simulate monthly time‐step discharge from which we derived hydrological variables. These, along with thermal, land‐cover, topographic and spatially explicit data, served as predictors for our ecological models. Predictions of occurrence probabilities and EPT richness were compared among the different regions, periods and scenarios. A Shiny web application was developed to interactively explore all the models’ details, to ensure transparency and promote the sharing of information. MEM and S‐SDMs approaches consistently showed that overall, climate change is likely to reduce EPT richness. Decrease could be around 10% in the least conservative scenario, depending on the region. Global warming was shown to represent a threat to species from high elevation, but in terms of species richness, running waters from lowlands and medium elevation seemed more vulnerable. Finally, our results suggest that the effects of anthropogenic activities could overweight natural factors in shaping the future of river biodiversity

ACS Style

Pablo Timoner; Marc Fasel; Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Pierre Marle; Emmanuel Castella; Frédéric Moser; Anthony Lehmann. Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: Complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers. Global Change Biology 2021, 27, 3565 -3581.

AMA Style

Pablo Timoner, Marc Fasel, Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Pierre Marle, Emmanuel Castella, Frédéric Moser, Anthony Lehmann. Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: Complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers. Global Change Biology. 2021; 27 (15):3565-3581.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pablo Timoner; Marc Fasel; Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Pierre Marle; Emmanuel Castella; Frédéric Moser; Anthony Lehmann. 2021. "Impacts of climate change on aquatic insects in temperate alpine regions: Complementary modeling approaches applied to Swiss rivers." Global Change Biology 27, no. 15: 3565-3581.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps is highly uncertain. Being dependent on snow cover conditions, winter sport tourism is highly susceptible to changes in temperature and precipitation. With the observed warming of the European Alps being well above global average warming, snow cover in Switzerland is projected to shrink at a rapid pace. Climate uncertainty originates from greenhouse gas emission trajectories (RCPs) and differences between climate models. Beyond climate uncertainty, the snow conditions are strongly subject to intra-annual variability. Series of unfavorable years have already led to the financial collapse of several low-altitude ski resorts. Such abrupt collapses with a large impact on the regional economy can be referred to as climate change induced socio-economic tipping points. To some degree, tipping points may be avoided by adaptation measures such as artificial snowmaking, although these measures are also subject to physical and economical constraints. In this study, we use a variety of exploratory modeling techniques to identify tipping points in a coupled physical-economic model applied to six representative ski resorts in the Swiss Alps. New high-resolution climate projections (CH2018) are used to represent climate uncertainty. To improve the coverage of the uncertainty space and accounting for the intra-annual variability of the climate models, a resampling technique was used to produce new climate realizations. A snow process model is used to simulate daily snow-cover in each of the ski resorts. The likelihood of survival of each resort is evaluated from the number of days with good snow conditions for skiing compared to the minimum thresholds obtained from the literature. Economically, the good snow days are translated into the total profit of ski resorts per season of operation. Multiple unfavorable years of total profit may lead to a tipping point. We use scenario discovery to identify the conditions under which these tipping points occur, and reflect on their implications for the future of snow tourism in the Swiss Alps.

ACS Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Veruska Muccione; Kees C.H. van Ginkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot. The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps: using DMDU to identify tipping points. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Veruska Muccione, Kees C.H. van Ginkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot. The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps: using DMDU to identify tipping points. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Veruska Muccione; Kees C.H. van Ginkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot. 2021. "The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps: using DMDU to identify tipping points." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 17 February 2021 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
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Approximately 70% of the available water in the entire Tibetan Plateau is stored in glaciers. Understanding the impact of climate change on the glacier mass balance is crucial given that the Plateau is the “water tower” of East and Southeast Asia. However, the historical records of the glacier mass balance for the Tibetan Plateau are scattered and incomplete. In this study, we reconstructed the long‐term glacier mass balance from 1975 to 2013 (the data can be downloaded at https://doi.org/10.11888/Glacio.tpdc.270382) using the field observations for seven major glaciers and corresponding meteorological data extracted from the GLDAS CLSM (Global Land Data Assimilation Systems based on the Catchment Land Surface Model) dataset. The effects of refrozen water and snow depth on the glacier mass balance was examined. In addition, the response of glacier mass balance to climate change was investigated. The results indicate that most of the glaciers experienced a mass loss during the study period. Large mass loss occurred in glaciers in the southeastern part of the plateau. The glacier in the northwestern part of the plateau (the Muztagh No.15 Glacier) shows a small mass gain. Regarding the mass components of the glacier mass balance, most mass balances are dominated by meltwater, while the Muztagh No.15 has a component offset. Further analysis manifests that mass balances in the western glaciers heavily change to the change of moisture factor (precipitation), while for the eastern glaciers, mass balance changes respond strongly to the changes of heat factors (air temperature, net radiation). The differences in the mass balance changes are closely related to the westerlies and Indian summer monsoon. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

ACS Style

Xiaowan Liu; Zongxue Xu; Hong Yang; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi. Responses of the glacier mass balance to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during 1975‐2013. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Xiaowan Liu, Zongxue Xu, Hong Yang, Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi. Responses of the glacier mass balance to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during 1975‐2013. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Xiaowan Liu; Zongxue Xu; Hong Yang; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi. 2021. "Responses of the glacier mass balance to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during 1975‐2013." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 18 February 2020 in Journal of Hydrology
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Heavy metal (HM) pollution is a serious and urgent issue in integrated watershed management in China and worldwide. Determining effective management strategies for pollution control requires quantification of input and output metal fluxes and the inherent uncertainties. Process-based metal models can simulate the metal movement on a watershed scale providing essential information for metal budget. However, there has been little effort to quantify the uncertainties in metal flux simulations. In this work, we modified the previously developed SWAT-HM (Soil and Water Assessment Tool – Heavy Metal) model by adding two external model inputs (atmospheric deposition and agricultural-source input) and one process-based module (plant uptake). We then linked the modified model with the SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs SWAT-CUP for stochastic calibration and uncertainty analysis. The modified SWAT-HM was used to model the fluxes of primary inputs and outputs of zinc (Zn) in both uplands (soil) and channel (bed sediment) in the upper Liuyang River watershed in south-central China. To calibrate the model with uncertainty analysis, we used six-years of daily streamflow, daily sediment load, and daily Zn load at monthly frequency at the watershed outlet. In the upland phase, we identified Zn input from atmospheric deposition and Zn output through soil erosion as the most significant fluxes. In the channel phase, bed sediment was the critical Zn sink receiving 5,100 to 42,000 kg yr−1 Zn. The method used in SWAT-HM calibration and uncertainty analysis is general with potential application to similar settings in the world.

ACS Style

Lingfeng Zhou; Yaobin Meng; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Pier Andrea Marras; Chunming Sui; Chao Lu; Karim C. Abbaspour. Uncertainty-based metal budget assessment at the watershed scale: Implications for environmental management practices. Journal of Hydrology 2020, 584, 124699 .

AMA Style

Lingfeng Zhou, Yaobin Meng, Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Pier Andrea Marras, Chunming Sui, Chao Lu, Karim C. Abbaspour. Uncertainty-based metal budget assessment at the watershed scale: Implications for environmental management practices. Journal of Hydrology. 2020; 584 ():124699.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lingfeng Zhou; Yaobin Meng; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Pier Andrea Marras; Chunming Sui; Chao Lu; Karim C. Abbaspour. 2020. "Uncertainty-based metal budget assessment at the watershed scale: Implications for environmental management practices." Journal of Hydrology 584, no. : 124699.

Data descriptor
Published: 06 November 2019 in Scientific Data
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Large-scale distributed watershed models are data-intensive, and preparing them consumes most of the research resources. We prepared high-resolution global databases of soil, landuse, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and historical and future weather databases that could serve as standard inputs in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. The data include two global soil maps and their associated databases calculated with a large number of pedotransfer functions, two landuse maps and their correspondence with SWAT’s database, historical and future daily temperature and precipitation data from five IPCC models with four scenarios; and finally, global monthly AET data. Weather data are 0.5° global grids text-formatted for direct use in SWAT models. The AET data is formatted for use in SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration Uncertainty Procedures) for calibration of SWAT models. The use of these global databases for SWAT models can speed up the model building by 75–80% and are extremely valuable in areas with limited or no physical data. Furthermore, they can facilitate the comparison of model results in different parts of the world.

ACS Style

K. C. Abbaspour; S. Ashraf Vaghefi; H. Yang; R. Srinivasan. Global soil, landuse, evapotranspiration, historical and future weather databases for SWAT Applications. Scientific Data 2019, 6, 1 -11.

AMA Style

K. C. Abbaspour, S. Ashraf Vaghefi, H. Yang, R. Srinivasan. Global soil, landuse, evapotranspiration, historical and future weather databases for SWAT Applications. Scientific Data. 2019; 6 (1):1-11.

Chicago/Turabian Style

K. C. Abbaspour; S. Ashraf Vaghefi; H. Yang; R. Srinivasan. 2019. "Global soil, landuse, evapotranspiration, historical and future weather databases for SWAT Applications." Scientific Data 6, no. 1: 1-11.

Article
Published: 09 February 2019 in Climate Dynamics
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Climate-impact projections are subject to uncertainty arising from climate models, greenhouse gases emission scenarios, bias correction and downscaling methods (BCDS), and the impact models. We studied the effects of hydrological model parameterization and regionalization (HM-P and HM-R) on the cascade of uncertainty. We developed a new, widely-applicable approach that improves our understanding of how HM-P and HM-R along with other uncertainty drivers contribute to the overall uncertainty in climate-impact projections. We analyzed uncertainties arising from general circulation models (GCMs), representative concertation pathways, BCDS, evapotranspiration calculation methods, and specifically HM-P and HM-R. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi-physical process-based hydrologic model with a high capability of parameterization, to project blue and green water resources for historical (1983–2007), near future (2010–2035) and far future (2040–2065) periods in Alberta, a western province of Canada. We developed an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Program approach, to decompose the overall uncertainty into contributions of single drivers using the projected blue and green water resources. The monthly analyses of projected water resources showed that HM-P and HM-R contribute 21–51% and 15–55% to the blue water, and 20–48% and 15–50% to the green water overall uncertainty in near future and far future, respectively. Overall, we found that in spring and summer seasons uncertainty arising from HM-P and HM-R dominates other uncertainty sources, e.g. GCMs. We also found that global climate models are another dominant source of uncertainty in future impact projections.

ACS Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Majid Iravani; David Sauchyn; Yuliya Andreichuk; Greg Goss; Monireh Faramarzi. Regionalization and parameterization of a hydrologic model significantly affect the cascade of uncertainty in climate-impact projections. Climate Dynamics 2019, 53, 2861 -2886.

AMA Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Majid Iravani, David Sauchyn, Yuliya Andreichuk, Greg Goss, Monireh Faramarzi. Regionalization and parameterization of a hydrologic model significantly affect the cascade of uncertainty in climate-impact projections. Climate Dynamics. 2019; 53 (5-6):2861-2886.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Majid Iravani; David Sauchyn; Yuliya Andreichuk; Greg Goss; Monireh Faramarzi. 2019. "Regionalization and parameterization of a hydrologic model significantly affect the cascade of uncertainty in climate-impact projections." Climate Dynamics 53, no. 5-6: 2861-2886.

Review
Published: 22 December 2017 in Water
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Application of integrated hydrological models to manage a watershed’s water resources are increasingly finding their way into the decision-making processes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a multi-process model integrating hydrology, ecology, agriculture, and water quality. SWAT is a continuation of nearly 40 years of modeling efforts conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS). A large number of SWAT-related papers have appeared in ISI journals, building a world-wide consensus around the model’s stability and usefulness. The current issue is a collection of the latest research using SWAT as the modeling tool. Most models must undergo calibration/validation and uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, these sciences are not formal subjects of teaching in most universities and the students are often left to their own resources to calibrate their model. In this paper, we focus on calibration and uncertainty analysis highlighting some serious issues in the calibration of distributed models. A protocol for calibration is also highlighted to guide the users to obtain better modeling results. Finally, a summary of the papers published in this special issue is provided in the Appendix.

ACS Style

Karim C. Abbaspour; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Raghvan Srinivasan. A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference. Water 2017, 10, 6 .

AMA Style

Karim C. Abbaspour, Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Raghvan Srinivasan. A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference. Water. 2017; 10 (1):6.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Karim C. Abbaspour; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Raghvan Srinivasan. 2017. "A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference." Water 10, no. 1: 6.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2017 in Environmental Modelling & Software
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ACS Style

Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Nazanin Abbaspour; Bahareh Kamali; Karim C. Abbaspour. A toolkit for climate change analysis and pattern recognition for extreme weather conditions – Case study: California-Baja California Peninsula. Environmental Modelling & Software 2017, 96, 181 -198.

AMA Style

Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Nazanin Abbaspour, Bahareh Kamali, Karim C. Abbaspour. A toolkit for climate change analysis and pattern recognition for extreme weather conditions – Case study: California-Baja California Peninsula. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2017; 96 ():181-198.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Nazanin Abbaspour; Bahareh Kamali; Karim C. Abbaspour. 2017. "A toolkit for climate change analysis and pattern recognition for extreme weather conditions – Case study: California-Baja California Peninsula." Environmental Modelling & Software 96, no. : 181-198.

Journal article
Published: 24 February 2017 in Water
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This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requirements instead of constant time series of demand were considered. As the cereal production of KRB plays a major role in supplying the food market of Iran, it is necessary to understand the crop yield-water relations for irrigated wheat and maize in the lower part of KRB (LKRB) where most of the irrigated agricultural plains are located. Irrigated wheat and maize yields (Y) and consumptive water use (AET) were modeled with uncertainty analysis at a subbasin level for 1990–2010. Simulated Y and AET were used to calculate crop water productivity (CWP). The coupled SWAT–MODSIM approach improved the accuracy of SWAT outputs by considering the water allocation derived from MODSIM. The results indicated that the highest CWP across this region was 1.31 kg·m−3 and 1.13 kg·m−3 for wheat and maize, respectively; and the lowest was less than 0.62 kg·m−3 and 0.58 kg·m−3. A close linear relationship was found for CWP and yield. The results showed a continuing increase for AET over the years while CWP peaks and then declines. This is evidence of the existence of a plateau in CWP as AET continues to increase and evidence of the fact that higher AET does not necessarily result in a higher yield.

ACS Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Karim C. Abbaspour; Monireh Faramarzi; Raghavan Srinivasan; Jeffrey G. Arnold. Modeling Crop Water Productivity Using a Coupled SWAT–MODSIM Model. Water 2017, 9, 157 .

AMA Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Karim C. Abbaspour, Monireh Faramarzi, Raghavan Srinivasan, Jeffrey G. Arnold. Modeling Crop Water Productivity Using a Coupled SWAT–MODSIM Model. Water. 2017; 9 (3):157.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Karim C. Abbaspour; Monireh Faramarzi; Raghavan Srinivasan; Jeffrey G. Arnold. 2017. "Modeling Crop Water Productivity Using a Coupled SWAT–MODSIM Model." Water 9, no. 3: 157.

Journal article
Published: 22 July 2016 in Hydrological Sciences Journal
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ACS Style

Majid Ehtiat; S. Jamshid Mousavi; Saeed A. Vaghefi; Abbas Ghaheri. Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modeling. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2016, 61, 2789 -2801.

AMA Style

Majid Ehtiat, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Saeed A. Vaghefi, Abbas Ghaheri. Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modeling. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2016; 61 (15):2789-2801.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Majid Ehtiat; S. Jamshid Mousavi; Saeed A. Vaghefi; Abbas Ghaheri. 2016. "Analysis of recharge conceptualization in inverse groundwater modeling." Hydrological Sciences Journal 61, no. 15: 2789-2801.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2015 in Journal of Hydrology
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SummaryA combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world

ACS Style

K.C. Abbaspour; E. Rouholahnejad; Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Raghavan Srinivasan; H. Yang; Björn Klöve. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology 2015, 524, 733 -752.

AMA Style

K.C. Abbaspour, E. Rouholahnejad, Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Raghavan Srinivasan, H. Yang, Björn Klöve. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model. Journal of Hydrology. 2015; 524 ():733-752.

Chicago/Turabian Style

K.C. Abbaspour; E. Rouholahnejad; Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Raghavan Srinivasan; H. Yang; Björn Klöve. 2015. "A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model." Journal of Hydrology 524, no. : 733-752.

Original article
Published: 30 December 2013 in Regional Environmental Change
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The paradigm of integrated water resources management requires coupled analysis of hydrology and water resources in a river basin. Population growth and uncertainties due to climate change make historic data not a reliable source of information for future planning of water resources, hence necessitating climate and landuse change impact studies. This work presents an integrated modeling approach by linking Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODSIM. While SWAT produces hydrologic and water resources information, MODSIM provides a decision support system for water allocation. We used the coupled SWAT–MODSIM to analyze the effects of climate and cropping pattern changes on agricultural and hydroenergy production in the Karkheh River Basin, a semiarid region in south-west of Iran. Cropping patterns were considered by limiting the cereal production to 50 % (S1, near to historic), 17 % (S2), and 83 % (S3) of total agricultural areas. The future climate was provided by the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1 version T63) for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The results showed that based on future climate changes and landuse scenarios, wheat production had a large variation in five economically important agricultural regions ranging from 33,000 ton year−1 (S2-A1B) to 74,000 ton year−1 (S3-A2). Similarly, energy production, while increasing from 614 to 1,100 GWH in A2, decreased from 614 to 464 GWH in B1 climate scenario. Our analyses indicate that cropping pattern change can be used as an effective tool to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change.

ACS Style

S. Ashraf Vaghefi; S. J. Mousavi; K. C. Abbaspour; R. Srinivasan; J. R. Arnold. Integration of hydrologic and water allocation models in basin-scale water resources management considering crop pattern and climate change: Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Regional Environmental Change 2013, 15, 475 -484.

AMA Style

S. Ashraf Vaghefi, S. J. Mousavi, K. C. Abbaspour, R. Srinivasan, J. R. Arnold. Integration of hydrologic and water allocation models in basin-scale water resources management considering crop pattern and climate change: Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Regional Environmental Change. 2013; 15 (3):475-484.

Chicago/Turabian Style

S. Ashraf Vaghefi; S. J. Mousavi; K. C. Abbaspour; R. Srinivasan; J. R. Arnold. 2013. "Integration of hydrologic and water allocation models in basin-scale water resources management considering crop pattern and climate change: Karkheh River Basin in Iran." Regional Environmental Change 15, no. 3: 475-484.

Research article
Published: 21 February 2013 in Hydrological Processes
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Water resources availability in the semiarid regions of Iran has experienced severe reduction because of increasing water use and lengthening of dry periods. To better manage this resource, we investigated the impact of climate change on water resources and wheat yield in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semiarid region of Iran. Future climate scenarios for 2020–2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model for scenarios A1B, B1 and A2. We constructed a hydrological model of KRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to project water resources availability. Blue and green water components were modeled with uncertainty ranges for both historic and future data. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2 was used with parallel processing option to calibrate the model based on river discharge and wheat yield. Furthermore, a newly developed program called critical continuous day calculator was used to determine the frequency and length of critical periods for precipitation, maximum temperature and soil moisture. We found that in the northern part of KRB, freshwater availability will increase from 1716 to 2670 m3/capita/year despite an increase of 28% in the population in 2025 in the B1 scenario. In the southern part, where much of the agricultural lands are located, the freshwater availability will on the average decrease by 44%. The long‐term average irrigated wheat yield, however, will increase in the south by 1.2%–21% in different subbasins; but for rain‐fed wheat, this variation is from −4% to 38%. The results of critical continuous day calculator showed an increase of up to 25% in both frequency and length of dry periods in south Karkheh, whereas increasing flood events could be expected in the northern and western parts of the region. In general, there is variability in the impact of climate change in the region where some areas will experience net negative whereas other areas will experience a net positive impact. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ACS Style

Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; S. Jamshid Mousavi; Karim C Abbaspour; Raghavan Srinivasan; Hong Yang. Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Hydrological Processes 2013, 28, 2018 -2032.

AMA Style

Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Karim C Abbaspour, Raghavan Srinivasan, Hong Yang. Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran. Hydrological Processes. 2013; 28 (4):2018-2032.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Seyed Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; S. Jamshid Mousavi; Karim C Abbaspour; Raghavan Srinivasan; Hong Yang. 2013. "Analyses of the impact of climate change on water resources components, drought and wheat yield in semiarid regions: Karkheh River Basin in Iran." Hydrological Processes 28, no. 4: 2018-2032.

Journal article
Published: 01 February 2013 in Journal of Hydrology
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ACS Style

Monireh Faramarzi; Karim C. Abbaspour; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Mohammad Reza Farzaneh; Alexander J.B. Zehnder; Raghavan Srinivasan; Hong Yang. Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa. Journal of Hydrology 2013, 480, 85 -101.

AMA Style

Monireh Faramarzi, Karim C. Abbaspour, Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Mohammad Reza Farzaneh, Alexander J.B. Zehnder, Raghavan Srinivasan, Hong Yang. Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa. Journal of Hydrology. 2013; 480 ():85-101.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Monireh Faramarzi; Karim C. Abbaspour; Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Mohammad Reza Farzaneh; Alexander J.B. Zehnder; Raghavan Srinivasan; Hong Yang. 2013. "Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa." Journal of Hydrology 480, no. : 85-101.