The awareness of drought and its impacts on Central Europe increased after the significant drought episodes in 2000, 2003, 2012 and 2015, which were all estimated to have caused over 500 million Euro in damage in the Czech Republic alone. These events indicated the need for timely and high‐resolution monitoring tools that would enable analysing, monitoring and forecasting of drought events. Monitoring soil water availability in near real time and at high‐resolution (up to 0.5 × 0.5 km for some products) helps farmers and water managers to mitigate impacts of these extreme events. The Czech Drought Monitor was developed between 2012 and 2014 and has since been operational as an online platform. It uses an operational modelling system that consists of four pillars: (a) weekly soil moisture estimates based on spaceborne Advanced Scatterometer sensor measurements; (b) the daily SoilClim soil moisture model, which runs based on high‐density network data from the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute with a 55‐year reference period; (c) weekly reports on vegetation condition, which is deduced from satellite‐based vegetation indices and early warnings of imminent drought impacts; and (d) weekly reports of soil moisture, especially after drought impacts, which are provided by dozens of experts. Since 2016 the drought forecast (+9 days) has been released daily based on an ensemble of five numerical weather prediction models combined with a weekly drought outlook (+2 months). The analysis of four recent episodes (2000, 2003, 2012 and 2015) clearly showed that both large‐scale and regionally restrained drought episodes posed serious risks in terms of their impacts and damage. Comparisons with historical droughts showed that these events, especially the 2000, 2003 and 2015 events, were among the top five drought episodes in the June–August period observed in the Czech Republic since 1961 in terms of spatial extent, magnitude and duration.
12 November 2025 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
The 2022 European drought has underscored critical deficiencies in European water management. This paper explores these shortcomings and suggests a way forward for European drought risk management. In particular, we focus on four key aspects: the increasing drought risk, its spatial and temporal impacts, current management approaches, and how these differ across Europe. We base our findings on a continent-wide survey of water managers involved in responding to the 2022 drought. The survey collected 481 responses from 30 European countries and contained 19 questions on perceived sectorial impacts and the drought risk management practices implemented by the respondents' organizations. Information from the survey was supported with climate-related data on drought severity as quantified by the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, to offer a comprehensive overview of how extreme historical droughts are managed across Europe. Our findings reveal a consensus on the growing risk of drought, driven by droughts' rising frequency and intensity. While the 2022 event affected most of the continent, our findings show significant regional disparities in management capacity. In many countries – particularly those with agriculture-dominated economies – drought responses remain short-term and reactive, often leading to potentially maladaptive practices. Despite these challenges, we also observe a positive shift, with organizations showing increased awareness and preparedness. Hence, the lessons learnt from the 2022 event may provide an ideal opportunity to mainstream European-wide drought risk management. To seize this opportunity, we advocate for a European Drought Directive, to harmonize and enforce risk management policies across the continent. This directive should promote a systemic, integrated, and long-term risk management perspective. It should also set clear guidelines at the national and sub-national level, and for cross-boundary drought collaboration. This study and its companion paper, “From Crisis to Capacity: Institutional Preparedness and Response During the 2022 European Drought”, result from work carried out by the Drought in the Anthropocene network, an initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS).
Fire weather indices are one of the basic components of any fire danger early warning system. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) was developed to indicate the danger due to wildfires in boreal and temperate forests in Canada in the second half of the 20th century. Over time, the FWI has been adapted all over the world and is considered the most widely used fire weather index. This study provides a comprehensive review and meta-analysis of 750 research papers, generalizing the adoption of the FWI across 18 global environmental zones. The objective was to determine FWI values for various fire danger classes worldwide, from very low to extreme. The values of FWI and hydrometeorological variables were compared with wildfire occurrence. Key findings indicate that in drier and warmer climates, higher FWI values (around 50) correspond to high fire danger, whereas in cooler and moister climates, lower FWI values (around 25) signify extreme danger. The analysis of hydrometeorological variables reveals that relative humidity, aridity index, and vapor pressure deficit are significant factors influencing extreme minimum FWI, while average solar radiation has minimal impact. These insights have critical implications for developing effective wildfire prevention and management strategies tailored to specific environmental conditions. By establishing new fire danger classes reflective of regional meteorological and hydroclimatic characteristics, this study enhances the global applicability of the FWI. The ability to quickly adapt the FWI for fire danger forecasting in new areas is particularly beneficial for regions with previously low study coverage. The results underscore the importance of integrating regional climate variables into fire danger assessment frameworks to improve early warning systems and mitigate wildfire risks. The conclusions highlights the effectiveness of the FWI in diverse geographic contexts and its potential to enhance fire danger forecasting globally, thereby aiding in the prevention and management of wildfires.
In the Czech Republic, soil moisture content during the growing season has been decreasing over the past six decades, and drought events have become significantly more frequent. In 2003, 2015, 2018 and 2019, drought affected almost the entire country, with droughts in 2000, 2004, 2007, 2012, 2014 and 2017 having smaller extents but still severe intensities in some regions. The current methods of visiting cadastral areas (approximately 13,000) to allocate compensation funds for the crop yield losses caused by drought or aggregating the losses to district areas (approximately 1000 km) based on proxy data are both inappropriate. The former due to the required time and resources, the later due to low resolution, which leads to many falsely negative and falsely positive results. Therefore, the study presents a new method to combine ground survey, remotely sensed and model data for determining crop yield losses. The study shows that it is possible to estimate them at the cadastral area level in the Czech Republic and attribute those losses to drought. This can be done with remotely sensed vegetation, water stress and soil moisture conditions with modeled soil moisture anomalies coupled with near-real-time feedback from reporters and with crop status surveys. The newly developed approach allowed the achievement of a proportion of falsely positive errors of less than 10% (e.g., oat 2%, 8%; spring barley 4%, 3%; sugar beets 2%, 21%; and winter wheat 2%, 6% in years 2017, resp. 2018) and allowed for cutting the loss assessment time from eight months in 2017 to eight weeks in 2018.