The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly map depicting severity and spatial extent of drought, is used to communicate about drought in state and federal decision-making, and as a trigger in response policies, including the distribution of hundreds of millions of dollars for agricultural financial relief in the United States annually. An accompanying classification table helps interpret the map and includes a column of possible impacts associated with each level of drought severity. However, the column describing potential drought impacts is generalized for the entire United States. To provide more geographically specific interpretation of drought, state and regionally specific drought impact classification tables were developed by linking impacts chronicled in the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR) to USDM severity levels across the United States and Puerto Rico and identifying recurrent themes at each level. After creating state-level tables of impacts observed for each level of drought, a nationwide survey was administered to drought experts and decision-makers (n = 89), including the USDM authors, to understand whether the tables provided accurate descriptions of drought impacts in their state. Seventy-six percent of respondents indicated the state table was an acceptable or good characterization of drought impacts for their respective state. This classification scheme was created with a reproducible qualitative methodology that used past observations to identify themes in drought impacts across multiple sectors to concisely describe expected impacts at different levels of drought in each state.

Water laws and drought plans are used to prioritize and allocate scarce water resources. Both have historically been human-centric, failing to account for non-human water needs. In this paper, we examine the development of instream flow legislation and the evolution of drought planning to highlight the growing concern for the non-human impacts of water scarcity. Utilizing a new framework for ecological drought, we analyzed five watershed-scale drought plans in southwestern Montana, USA to understand if, and how, the ecological impacts of drought are currently being assessed. We found that while these plans do account for some ecological impacts, it is primarily through the narrow lens of impacts to fish as measured by water temperature and streamflow. The latter is typically based on the same ecological principles used to determine instream flow requirements. We also found that other resource plans in the same watersheds (e.g., Watershed Restoration Plans, Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Watershed Assessments or United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Plans) identify a broader range of ecological drought risks. Given limited resources and the potential for mutual benefits and synergies, we suggest greater integration between various planning processes could result in a more holistic consideration of water needs and uses across the landscape.

Fire weather indices are one of the basic components of any fire danger early warning system. The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) was developed to indicate the danger due to wildfires in boreal and temperate forests in Canada in the second half of the 20th century. Over time, the FWI has been adapted all over the world and is considered the most widely used fire weather index. This study provides a comprehensive review and meta-analysis of 750 research papers, generalizing the adoption of the FWI across 18 global environmental zones. The objective was to determine FWI values for various fire danger classes worldwide, from very low to extreme. The values of FWI and hydrometeorological variables were compared with wildfire occurrence. Key findings indicate that in drier and warmer climates, higher FWI values (around 50) correspond to high fire danger, whereas in cooler and moister climates, lower FWI values (around 25) signify extreme danger. The analysis of hydrometeorological variables reveals that relative humidity, aridity index, and vapor pressure deficit are significant factors influencing extreme minimum FWI, while average solar radiation has minimal impact. These insights have critical implications for developing effective wildfire prevention and management strategies tailored to specific environmental conditions. By establishing new fire danger classes reflective of regional meteorological and hydroclimatic characteristics, this study enhances the global applicability of the FWI. The ability to quickly adapt the FWI for fire danger forecasting in new areas is particularly beneficial for regions with previously low study coverage. The results underscore the importance of integrating regional climate variables into fire danger assessment frameworks to improve early warning systems and mitigate wildfire risks. The conclusions highlights the effectiveness of the FWI in diverse geographic contexts and its potential to enhance fire danger forecasting globally, thereby aiding in the prevention and management of wildfires.

Land management practices and disturbances (e.g. overgrazing, fire) have substantial effects on grassland forage production. When using satellite remote sensing to monitor climate impacts, such as drought stress on annual forage production, minimizing land management practices and disturbance effects sends a clear climate signal to the productivity data. This study investigates the effect of this climate signal by: (1) providing spatial estimates of expected biomass under specific climate conditions, (2) determining which drought indices explain the majority of interannual variability in this biomass, and (3) developing a predictive model that estimates the annual biomass early in the growing season. To address objective 1, this study uses an established methodology to determine Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP) in the Nebraska Sandhills, US, representing annual forage levels after accounting for non-climatic influences. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were used to approximate actual ecosystem performance. Seventeen years (2000–2016) of annual EEP was calculated using piecewise regression tree models of site potential and climate data. Expected biomass (EB), EEP converted to biomass in kg*ha⁻¹*yr⁻¹, was then used to examine the predictive capacity of several drought indices and the onset date of the growing season. Subsets of these indices were used to monitor and predict annual expected grassland biomass. Independent field-based biomass production data available from two Sandhills locations were used for validation of the EEP model. The EB was related to field-based biomass production (R² = 0.66 and 0.57) and regional rangeland productivity statistics of the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO) dataset. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), the 3- and 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), which represented moisture conditions during May, June and July, explained the majority of the interannual biomass variability in this grassland system (three-month ESI explained roughly 72% of the interannual biomass variability). A new model was developed to use drought indices from early in the growing season to predict the total EB for the whole growing season. This unique approach considers only climate-related drought signal on productivity. The capability to estimate annual EB by the end of May will potentially enable land managers to make informed decisions about stocking rates, hay purchase needs, and other management issues early in the season, minimizing their potential drought losses.

The ecosystem performance approach, used in a previously published case study focusing on the Nebraska Sandhills, proved to minimize impacts of non-climatic factors (e.g., overgrazing, fire, pests) on the remotely-sensed signal of seasonal vegetation greenness resulting in a better attribution of its changes to climate variability. The current study validates the applicability of this approach for assessment of seasonal and interannual climate impacts on forage production in the western United States semi-arid grasslands. Using a piecewise regression tree model, we developed the Expected Ecosystem Performance (EEP), a proxy for annual forage production that reflects climatic influences while minimizing impacts of management and disturbances. The EEP model establishes relations between seasonal climate, site-specific growth potential, and long-term growth variability to capture changes in the growing season greenness measured via a time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) observed using a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The resulting 19 years of EEP were converted to expected biomass (EB, kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹) using a newly-developed relation with the Soil Survey Geographic Database range production data (R² = 0.7). Results were compared to ground-observed biomass datasets collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and University of Nebraska-Lincoln (R² = 0.67). This study illustrated that this approach is transferable to other semi-arid and arid grasslands and can be used for creating timely, post-season forage production assessments. When combined with seasonal climate predictions, it can provide within-season estimates of annual forage production that can serve as a basis for more informed adaptive decision making by livestock producers and land managers.

Drought is an abstract and complex phenomenon that can be difficult for many people to comprehend. Proactive planning to improve response during drought events is necessary but complicated because it involves stakeholders and decision-makers with competing interests. A category of games, called serious games, have proven to be helpful when learning about abstract concepts, and for improving communication and conflict resolution with respect to water-related issues. In this study, we present a new in-person role-playing game that serves as a drought educational tool in both classroom and professional settings. The message of the game emphasizes the importance of communication and cooperation between various communities and sectors that can be affected by drought. Furthermore, it also encourages discussions and collaborations between stakeholders involved in drought planning and can serve as an icebreaker activity. The game has been played in a variety of settings including university classes, university extension workshops, and drought workshops. This study describes the game itself, its development, and the results of surveys from game participants that were used to evaluate the usability of the game as an educational and icebreaker activity.