Global climate change and human activities have exacerbated droughts’ environmental and socioeconomic threats. However, there is still a lack of effective techniques to consider their combined impacts on drought identification. Therefore, a new copula-based multivariate standardized drought index (CMSDI) was proposed, which integrates precipitation data and terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data observed by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. The applicability of the CMSDI was assessed compared with the water storage deficits index (WSDI), the self-calibration Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and the Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) for 2002–2020. The assessments were conducted regarding both temporal evolution and spatial distribution. The results showed that the CMSDI was more synchronized with the WSDI and SPI than with the other two indices and presented different trends and correlations in the YRB and YZRB. The CMSDI outperformed the other drought indices due to the limitations of the sc-PDSI, SPEI, and SPI in detecting certain drought events, and the greater inaccuracy of the WSDI in identifying extreme droughts. Furthermore, the CMSDI revealed a clear upward trend in parts of the middle and lower YRB and a clear downward trend in the upper YZRB, emphasizing the need for more attention to droughts in the YRB. This study presents a new perspective on the integrated use of satellite and measured data in drought monitoring across different regions.

In recent years, flash droughts with a rapid onset and strong intensity have attracted extensive attention due to their impact on agriculture and ecosystems. However, there is still no feasible method for flash drought forecasting and early warning. This paper employs the thresholds of several meteorological variables to identify flash droughts in Zhejiang Province, China, and build a probabilistic flash drought forecasting model through numeric weather forecast (NWF) and the generalized Bayesian model (GBM). The results show that the northern part of Zhejiang Province has the highest risk of flash drought. The NWF is a viable method to provide future information for flash drought forecasting and early warning, but its forecasting accuracy tends to decline with the increase in the lead time and is very limited when the lead time is over 5 days, especially for the precipitation forecast. Due to the low performance of the NWF, the flash drought forecast based on the raw NWF may be unreliable when the lead time is over 5 days. To solve this problem, probabilistic forecasting based on GBM is employed to quantify the uncertainty in the NWF and is tested through an example analysis. In the example analysis, it was found that the probability of a flash drought exceeds 30% from the probabilistic forecasting when the lead time is 12 days, while the deterministic forecasting via the raw NWF cannot identify a flash drought when the lead time is over 5 days. In conclusion, probabilistic forecasting can identify a potential flash drought earlier and can be used to evaluate the risk of a flash drought, which is conducive for the early warning of flash droughts and the development of response measures.

Drought is one of the most frequent types of natural disasters in the world, and it has been classified into several different categories. Generally, meteorological drought is considered to be the beginning of a drought disaster, while socio-economic drought is the possible ultimate result. However, controversy remains around the main impact factors in the propagation from meteorological drought to socio-economic drought over the past decades. In this study, a comprehensive investigation of the 2022 drought event in the city of Lishui, China was conducted to build a model for analyzing the main impact factors in the propagation from meteorological drought to socio-economic drought. The results showed that the 2022 drought event had a great impact on the city’s socio-economic activities. According to governmental reports on socio-economic drought and basic information on water sources, a random forest attribution analysis model was built. The model demonstrated a great performance in distinguishing whether a socio-economic drought had occurred, with an accuracy of 0.9935, a true positive rate of 0.9489 and a false positive rate of 0.0021. Additionally, the variables related to water sources—including drainage area, covered population and daily water supply volume—were found to be more important than the other variables related to meteorological conditions in the model, meaning that the capacity of water sources is the main impact factor in the propagation between meteorological drought and socio-economic drought. In other words, it is feasible to prevent the propagation of meteorological drought to socio-economic drought through water conservancy engineering construction.

With the rapid development of meteorological models, numerical weather prediction is increasingly used in flood forecasting and reservoir regulation, but its forecasting ability is limited by the large amount of uncertainty from meteorological systems. In this paper, a new, hybrid framework is developed to improve numerical precipitation forecasting by combining the multimodel ensemble and probabilistic postprocessing methods. The results show that the multimodel ensemble method used in this paper is an efficient way to reduce prediction errors, especially missing alarm errors. In a comparison of the probabilistic postprocessors based the generalized Bayesian model (GBM) and bivariate probabilistic model (BPM), the GBM shows better performance from the aspects of indicators and is more suitable for real-time applications. Meanwhile, the assessment of probabilistic results shows that the skill of probabilistic precipitation forecasts is related to the quality of their inputs. According to these results, a new hybrid framework is proposed by taking the results from multimodel ensemble as the input of probabilistic postprocessor. Compared to using the raw numerical in GBM, the hybrid framework improves the accuracy, sharpness, reliability, and resolution ability from different lead times by 2–13%, 1–22%, and 0–12% respectively, especially when the lead time is less than 4 d, the improvement can reach 9–13%, 10–22%, and 5–12% respectively. In conclusion, the hybrid two-step framework can provide a more skillful precipitation forecast, which can be useful for flood forecasting and reservoir regulation.

Li, X.; Wang, B.; Tong, Z.; Jiang, Z., and Cai, C., 2023. Analysis and prediction of terrestrial water storage anomalies in the lower Yangtze River Basin based on an improved Grey-Markov model. Journal of Coastal Research, 39(3), 544–552. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. The data from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have been used to estimate terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) in many areas. From the former studies, the TWSAs from GRACE have been proven as a sensitive indicator to extreme hydrological events, which means it is possible to forecast the extreme hydrological events through the prediction of TWSA. However, because of the limited time series and missing data of the GRACE satellite, it is still very difficult to analyze the long-term TWSAs and predict the future changes of TWSAs. In this paper, the TWSAs of the lower Yangtze River basin from 2002 to 2021 estimated by the GRACE are compared with the TWS from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) with the aspects of trend and correlation. The TWSAs from GRACE and the TWS from GLDAS in the study area are both on a slight upward trend. The Pearson correlation coefficient and the spectral analysis present a strong correlation between the two elements. According to the high correlation between the two elements, both linear and nonlinear methods are used to reconstruct a long-term GRACE data, and an improved Grey-Markov model is proposed to predict the future TWSA in the study area. The results show that a linear relationship occurs between the two elements. Moreover, the forecast results show that the TWSA of the lower Yangtze River basin will exceed 0.35 cm in 2021 and 2022, indicating continuous wet conditions in the basin. The basin should be prepared for the occurrence of floods.

The increasingly serious imbalance between the supply and demand of water resources necessitates the establishment of a scientific and reasonable comprehensive evaluation method for industrial water use efficiency (WUE). In this study, a general method for industrial WUE evaluation on an enterprise scale was proposed by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy weight method (EWM), and self-organizing map (SOM), and it was tested in several areas of Zhejiang Province, China. The results show that the composite indexes generated using the AHP and EWM were different and were employed as the input of the SOM to divide enterprises into four categories. Most enterprises were classified as Class A, with a relatively high WUE, accounting for 82.5% of the total, while those in Class D, with a relatively low WUE, only accounted for 0.5% of the total. Furthermore, the differences in WUE for industry classification and spatial distribution were also analyzed. The classification results of several industries were more diverse, especially for those industries in which water plays an important role in production. Moreover, the spatial distribution of WUE classifications also implied that the clustering of enterprises has a positive effect on the improvement in WUE. In other words, it is feasible to improve WUE through industry clustering and sub-industry management. In summary, a comprehensive, detailed evaluation of industrial WUE was conducted on an enterprise scale, which can also be applied to other areas and used as a reference for local water resource managers for formulating targeted policies.