Phytoplankton are the base of the Antarctic food web, sustain the wealth and diversity of life for which Antarctica is renowned, and play a critical role in biogeochemical cycles that mediate global climate. Over the vast expanse of the Southern Ocean (SO), the climate is variously predicted to experience increased warming, strengthening wind, acidification, shallowing mixed layer depths, increased light (and UV), changes in upwelling and nutrient replenishment, declining sea ice, reduced salinity, and the southward migration of ocean fronts. These changes are expected to alter the structure and function of phytoplankton communities in the SO. The diverse environments contained within the vast expanse of the SO will be impacted differently by climate change; causing the identity and the magnitude of environmental factors driving biotic change to vary within and among bioregions. Predicting the net effect of multiple climate-induced stressors over a range of environments is complex. Yet understanding the response of SO phytoplankton to climate change is vital if we are to predict the future state/s of the ecosystem, estimate the impacts on fisheries and endangered species, and accurately predict the effects of physical and biotic change in the SO on global climate. This review looks at the major environmental factors that define the structure and function of phytoplankton communities in the SO, examines the forecast changes in the SO environment, predicts the likely effect of these changes on phytoplankton, and considers the ramifications for trophodynamics and feedbacks to global climate change. Predictions strongly suggest that all regions of the SO will experience changes in phytoplankton productivity and community composition with climate change. The nature, and even the sign, of these changes varies within and among regions and will depend upon the magnitude and sequence in which these environmental changes are imposed. It is likely that predicted changes to phytoplankton communities will affect SO biogeochemistry, carbon export, and nutrition for higher trophic levels.

High-latitude oceans are anticipated to be some of the first regions affected by ocean acidification. Despite this, the effect of ocean acidification on natural communities of Antarctic marine microbes is still not well understood. In this study we exposed an early spring, coastal marine microbial community in Prydz Bay to CO₂ levels ranging from ambient (343 µatm) to 1641 µatm in six 650 L minicosms. Productivity assays were performed to identify whether a CO₂ threshold existed that led to a change in primary productivity, bacterial productivity, and the accumulation of chlorophyll a (Chl a) and particulate organic matter (POM) in the minicosms. In addition, photophysiological measurements were performed to identify possible mechanisms driving changes in the phytoplankton community. A critical threshold for tolerance to ocean acidification was identified in the phytoplankton community between 953 and 1140 µatm. CO₂ levels ≥ 1140 µatm negatively affected photosynthetic performance and Chl a-normalised primary productivity (csGPP_¹⁴C), causing significant reductions in gross primary production (GPP_¹⁴C), Chl a accumulation, nutrient uptake, and POM production. However, there was no effect of CO₂ on C : N ratios. Over time, the phytoplankton community acclimated to high CO₂ conditions, showing a down-regulation of carbon concentrating mechanisms (CCMs) and likely adjusting other intracellular processes. Bacterial abundance initially increased in CO₂ treatments ≥ 953 µatm (days 3–5), yet gross bacterial production (GBP_¹⁴C) remained unchanged and cell-specific bacterial productivity (csBP_¹⁴C) was reduced. Towards the end of the experiment, GBP_¹⁴C and csBP_¹⁴C markedly increased across all treatments regardless of CO₂ availability. This coincided with increased organic matter availability (POC and PON) combined with improved efficiency of carbon uptake. Changes in phytoplankton community production could have negative effects on the Antarctic food web and the biological pump, resulting in negative feedbacks on anthropogenic CO₂ uptake. Increases in bacterial abundance under high CO₂ conditions may also increase the efficiency of the microbial loop, resulting in increased organic matter remineralisation and further declines in carbon sequestration.

Global environmental changes are challenging the structure and functioning of ecosystems. However, a mechanistic understanding of how global environmental changes will affect ecosystems is still lacking. The complex and interacting biological and physical processes spanning vast temporal and spatial scales that constitute an ecosystem make this a formidable problem. A unifying framework based on ecological theory, that considers fundamental and realized niches, combined with metabolic, evolutionary, and climate change studies, is needed to provide the mechanistic understanding required to evaluate and forecast the future of marine communities, ecosystems, and their services.

Iron (Fe) is a paradox in the modern ocean – it is central to many life-critical enzymes but is scarce across most surface waters. The high cellular demand and low bioavailability of Fe likely puts selective pressure on marine microorganisms. Previous observations suggest that heterotrophic bacteria are outcompeted by small diatoms for Fe supply in the subantarctic zone of Southern Ocean, thereby challenging the idea of heterotrophic bacteria being more competitive than phytoplankton in the access to this trace metal. To test this hypothesis, incubation experiments were carried out at the Southern Ocean Time Series site (March–April 2016). We investigated (a) whether dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved Fe, or both limit the growth of heterotrophic bacteria and, (b) if the presence of potential competitors has consequences on the bacterial Fe acquisition. We observed a pronounced increase in both bulk and cell-specific bacterial production in response to single (+C) and combined (+Fe+C) additions, but no changes in these rates when only Fe was added (+Fe). Moreover, we found that +Fe+C additions promoted increases in cell-specific bacterial Fe uptake rates, and these increases were particularly pronounced (by 13-fold) when phytoplankton were excluded from the incubations. These results suggest that auto- and heterotrophs could compete for Fe when DOC limitation of bacterial growth is alleviated. Such interactions between primary producers and nutrient-recyclers are unexpected drivers for the duration and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms in the Southern Ocean.

Future change in sea surface temperature may influence climate via various air–sea feedbacks and pathways. In this study, we investigate the influence of surface seawater biogeochemical composition on the temperature dependence of number-based sea spray emission fluxes. The dependence of sea spray fluxes was investigated in different water masses (i.e., subantarctic, subtropical and frontal bloom) with contrasting biogeochemical properties across a temperature range from ambient (13–18 ^∘C) to 2 ^∘C using seawater circulating in a plunging jet sea spray generator. We observed a significant increase in the sea spray total concentration at temperatures below 8 ^∘C. Specifically, at 2 ^∘C, there was an average 4-fold increase compared to the initial concentration at ambient temperatures. This temperature dependence was more pronounced for smaller-sized sea spray particles (i.e., nucleation and Aitken modes). Moreover, the temperature dependence varied based on the seawater type and its biogeochemical properties. While the sea spray flux at moderate temperatures (8–11 ^∘C) was highest in frontal-bloom waters, the effect of low temperature on the sea spray flux was highest in subtropical seawaters. The temperature dependence of the sea spray flux was found to be inversely proportional to the abundance of the cyanobacterium Synechococcus in seawater. This relationship allows for parameterizing the temperature dependence of sea spray emission fluxes based on Synechococcus, which may be utilized in future modeling exercises.