During explosive eruptions, emergency responders and government agencies need to make fast decisions that should be based on an accurate forecast of tephra dispersal and assessment of the expected impact. Here, we propose a new operational tephra fallout monitoring and forecasting system based on quantitative volcanological observations and modelling. The new system runs at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo (INGV-OE) and is able to provide a reliable hazard assessment to the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) during explosive eruptions. The new operational system combines data from low-cost calibrated visible cameras and satellite images to estimate the variation of column height with time and model volcanic plume and fallout in near-real-time (NRT). The new system has three main objectives: (i) to determine column height in NRT using multiple sensors (calibrated cameras and satellite images); (ii) to compute isomass and isopleth maps of tephra deposits in NRT; (iii) to help the DPC to best select the eruption scenarios run daily by INGV-OE every three hours. A particular novel feature of the new system is the computation of an isopleth map, which helps to identify the region of sedimentation of large clasts (≥5 cm) that could cause injuries to tourists, hikers, guides, and scientists, as well as damage buildings in the proximity of the summit craters. The proposed system could be easily adapted to other volcano observatories worldwide.

Volcanic activity is observed worldwide with a variety of ground and space-based remote sensing instruments, each with advantages and drawbacks. No single system can give a comprehensive description of eruptive activity, and so, a multi-sensor approach is required. This work integrates infrared and microwave volcanic ash retrievals obtained from the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)-Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), the polar-orbiting Aqua-MODIS and ground-based weather radar. The expected outcomes are improvements in satellite volcanic ash cloud retrieval (altitude, mass, aerosol optical depth and effective radius), the generation of new satellite products (ash concentration and particle number density in the thermal infrared) and better characterization of volcanic eruptions (plume altitude, total ash mass erupted and particle number density from thermal infrared to microwave). This approach is the core of the multi-platform volcanic ash cloud estimation procedure being developed within the European FP7-APhoRISM project. The Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) volcano lava fountaining event of 23 November 2013 was considered as a test case. The results of the integration show the presence of two volcanic cloud layers at different altitudes. The improvement of the volcanic ash cloud altitude leads to a mean difference between the SEVIRI ash mass estimations, before and after the integration, of about the 30%. Moreover, the percentage of the airborne “fine” ash retrieved from the satellite is estimated to be about 1%–2% of the total ash emitted during the eruption. Finally, all of the estimated parameters (volcanic ash cloud altitude, thickness and total mass) were also validated with ground-based visible camera measurements, HYSPLIT forward trajectories, Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite data and tephra deposits.

From 2011 to 2015, 49 lava fountains occurred at Etna volcano. In this work, the measurements carried out from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instrument, on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite, are processed to realize a proximal monitoring of the eruptive activity for each event. The SEVIRI measurements are managed to provide the time series of start and duration of eruption and fountains, Time Averaged Discharge Rate (TADR) and Volcanic Plume Top Height (VPTH). Due to its temperature responsivity, the eruptions start and duration, fountains start and duration and TADR are realized by exploiting the SEVIRI 3.9 μm channel, while the VPTH is carried out by applying a simplified procedure based on the SEVIRI 10.8 μm brightness temperature computation. For each event, the start, duration and TADR have been compared with ground-based observations. The VPTH time series is compared with the results obtained from a procedures-based on the volcanic cloud center of mass tracking in combination with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back-trajectories. The results indicate that SEVIRI is generally able to detect the start of the lava emission few hours before the ground measurements. A good agreement is found for both the start and the duration of the fountains and the VPTH with mean differences of about 1 h, 50 min and 1 km respectively.

On the morning of 24 December 2018, an eruptive event occurred at Etna, which was followed the next day by a strong sequence of shallow earthquakes. The eruptive episode lasted until 30 December, ranging from moderate strombolian to lava fountain activity coupled with vigorous ash/gas emissions and a lava flow effusion toward the eastern volcano flank of Valle del Bove. In this work, the data collected from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) instruments on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite are used to characterize the Etna activity by estimating the proximal and distal eruption parameters in near real time. The inversion of data indicates the onset of eruption on 24 December at 11:15 UTC, a maximum Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) of 8.3 m³/s, a cumulative lava volume emitted of 0.5 Mm³, and a Volcanic Plume Top Height (VPTH) that reached a maximum altitude of 8 km above sea level (asl). The volcanic cloud ash and SO₂ result totally collocated, with an ash amount generally lower than SO₂ except on 24 December during the climax phase. A total amount of about 100 and 35 kt of SO₂ and ash respectively was emitted during the entire eruptive period, while the SO₂ fluxes reached peaks of more than 600 kg/s, with a mean value of about 185 kg/s. The SEVIRI VPTH, ash/SO₂ masses, and flux time series have been compared with the results obtained from the ground-based visible (VIS) cameras and FLux Automatic MEasurements (FLAME) networks, and the satellite images collected by the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments on board the Terra and Aqua- polar satellites. The analysis indicates good agreement between SEVIRI, VIS camera, and MODIS retrievals with VPTH, ash, and SO₂ estimations all within measurement errors. The SEVIRI and FLAME SO₂ flux retrievals show significant discrepancies due to the presence of volcanic ash and a gap of data on the FLAME network. The results obtained in this study show the ability of geostationary satellite systems to characterize eruptive events from the source to the atmosphere in near real time during the day and night, thus offering a powerful tool to mitigate volcanic risk on both local population and airspace and to give insight on volcanic processes.

Between 13 December 2020 and 21 February 2022, Etna volcano produced a sequence of 66 paroxysmal explosive eruptions, with Strombolian activity at the summit craters climaxing in lava fountains and eruption columns extending several kilometers above the craters, accompanied by minor and short-lasting lava flows from the crater rim. We selected three of these episodes that occurred within a short space of time, between 13 December 2020 and 12 March 2021, of different magnitude (i.e., erupted volume) and intensity (i.e., mass eruption rate or instantaneous eruption rate), and analyzed them from a multidisciplinary perspective. The aim was to gain insights into those parameters that mostly reveal the eruptive process for hazard assessment purposes. The multidisciplinary data consist of calibrated visible images, thermal images, seismic and infrasound data, ground deformation detected from the strainmeters, as well as satellite SEVIRI images. From these data, we obtained the timing of each paroxysmal event, the erupted volume in terms of tephra and lava flows, and the corresponding deflation of the source region, together with the development of the lava fountains and eruption columns with time. The results enabled determining that the smallest episode was that of 13 December 2020, which comprised three distinctive pulses but did not produce an eruptive column detectable from either monitoring cameras or satellites. The 28 February 2021 episode was remarkable for the short amount of time required to reach the climax, and was the most intense, whereas the 12 March 2021 event showed the longest duration but with an intensity between that of the previous two. Our results show that these three paroxysmal events display a typical trend, with the first event also being the smallest in terms of both erupted volume and intensity, the second being the most intense, and the third the one of greatest magnitude but less intense than the second. This is coherent with the end of the first paroxysmal phase on 1 April 2021, which was followed by 48 days of eruptive pause before starting again. In this context, the end of the paroxysmal phase was anticipated by a more effusive episode, thus heralding a temporary decline in the gas content within the feeding magma batch.