Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system¹. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests^2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced⁶ and satellite-derived approaches^2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea^2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species^1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies^3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases^5–7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk^1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$Ψ ₅₀) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM₅₀) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk^3–5, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$Ψ ₅₀ and HSM₅₀ vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$Ψ ₅₀ and HSM₅₀ influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM₅₀ was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM₅₀ are gaining more biomass than are low HSM₅₀ forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM₅₀ in the Amazon^6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

The tropical forest carbon sink is known to be drought sensitive, but it is unclear which forests are the most vulnerable to extreme events. Forests with hotter and drier baseline conditions may be protected by prior adaptation, or more vulnerable because they operate closer to physiological limits. Here we report that forests in drier South American climates experienced the greatest impacts of the 2015–2016 El Niño, indicating greater vulnerability to extreme temperatures and drought. The long-term, ground-measured tree-by-tree responses of 123 forest plots across tropical South America show that the biomass carbon sink ceased during the event with carbon balance becoming indistinguishable from zero (−0.02 ± 0.37 Mg C ha⁻¹ per year). However, intact tropical South American forests overall were no more sensitive to the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño than to previous less intense events, remaining a key defence against climate change as long as they are protected.

Tropical forests are experiencing unprecedented high‐temperature conditions due to climate change that could limit their photosynthetic functions. We studied the high‐temperature sensitivity of photosynthesis in a rainforest site in southern Amazonia, where some of the highest temperatures and most rapid warming in the Tropics have been recorded. The quantum yield (F_v/F_m) of photosystem II was measured in seven dominant tree species using leaf discs exposed to varying levels of heat stress. T₅₀ was calculated as the temperature at which F_v/F_m was half the maximum value. T₅ is defined as the breakpoint temperature, at which F_v/F_m decline was initiated. Leaf thermotolerance in the rapidly warming southern Amazonia was the highest recorded for forest tree species globally. T₅₀ and T₅ varied between species, with one mid‐storey species, Amaioua guianensis, exhibiting particularly high T₅₀ and T₅ values. While the T₅₀ values of the species sampled were several degrees above the maximum air temperatures experienced in southern Amazonia, the T₅ values of several species are now exceeded under present‐day maximum air temperatures.