The land use and ecological risk patterns in Guilin, which is the only innovation demonstration zone under the National Sustainable Development Agenda in China with a focus on the sustainable use of natural resources, have changed significantly as a result of the combined impact of climate change and human activities, thus presenting challenges to the sustainable development of the local area. This research employs an ecological risk assessment model and spatial analysis techniques in order to analyze the spatial correlation between land use and ecological risk, and to evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecological risk at the overall and county scales in Guilin. The results reveal the following: (1) A total of 1848.6 km² land types in Guilin have changed from 2000 to 2020, and construction land has gradually expanded from the central urban area to the suburbs with increasing internal stability each year. (2) The ecological risk level in Guilin showed a decreasing trend at the city scale, but some regions still showed an increasing trend at the county distribution scale. (3) The ecological risk value in Guilin has significant spatial correlation, and the spatial distribution showed a clustering effect, which was consistent with the spatial distribution of ecological risk class areas. The research results can provide a reference for ecological risk control and sustainable development of landscape resource cities.

Soil conservation (SC) plays a vital role in preventing soil erosion and ensuring ecological security. While current research on SC primarily focuses on historical spatiotemporal variations, there remains a dearth of sufficient simulation research exploring future development scenarios. In this study, simulations were applied to the source of Yellow River (SYR), a representative ecologically fragile area. Satellite remote sensing and product data, including precipitation, soil, land use/cover, DEM, and SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI, were utilized. The historical and future evolutionary trends of SC in the SYR were quantitatively assessed using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and trend analysis method, and the geographical detector was employed to explore the forces driving spatial differentiations in SC. The results demonstrated that: (1) 2000–2020, the spatial heterogeneity of SC in the SYR was characterized by the distribution of “gradually decreasing from Southeast to Northwest”, demonstrated a trend of “increasing, decreasing, and then increasing”. (2) Under the diverse development scenarios, the trend of SC change in the SYR was predominantly rising, and the natural change scenario (NCS) > ecological conservation scenario (ECS) > economic expansion scenario (EES). (3) Slope was the most important single driver affecting the spatiotemporal differentiation of SC, and the interaction of slope with average annual precipitation, and NDVI on the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of SC had the strongest explanatory ability. The results can serve as a scientific basis for regional SC and ecological protection and construction of the SYR.

The preservation of biodiversity is crucial for maintaining ecological balance and promoting the harmonious development of mankind and nature. To formulate a biodiversity conservation plan for Guilin in China and accurately evaluate the impact of conservation measures on regional biodiversity, this study combined the InVEST model (v 3.7.0), the GeoSOS-FLUS model (v 2.3), and the landscape pattern index, analyzing the spatiotemporal changes in biodiversity from 2000 to 2020 in Guilin and simulating biodiversity under different development scenarios in 2040. The results showed the following: (1) The biodiversity index in Guilin displayed a declining trend, with the average annual value decreasing from 0.875 in 2000 to 0.870 in 2020. The area experiencing a reduction in biodiversity was primarily concentrated around the city. (2) The biodiversity level of each district and county had a large spatiotemporal difference, with the overall distribution characteristics of “higher in the northwest, southwest, and east, and lower in the northeast, southeast and central”. (3) The biodiversity hotspots were identified as priority areas for conservation; woodland and wetland were effectively protected, and the expansion of construction land and arable land was limited under the ecological protection scenario compared with the natural development scenario. (4) The annual average value of the biodiversity index of Guilin could reach 0.872 in 2040 after the adoption of ecological conservation measures, which is 0.013 higher than the natural development scenario. The results of this study can provide guidance for the construction of a national sustainable development model city and land use planning in Guilin, as well as a scientific reference for the creation of biodiversity conservation policies.

Overgrazing typically leads to grassland vegetation degradation and reduction, which in turn triggers a series of ecological problems. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the effects of different Grazing Intensities (GIs) on the Vegetation Ecosystem (VE) to achieve sustainable grazing development. This study proposes a new quantitative index, the Grazing Intensity and Vegetation Cover Harmonization Index (GVCI), based on multiple indicators such as fractional vegetation cover (FVC), net primary productivity (NPP), and GI. The GVCI was used to quantify the “Harmonization and Conflict” status between GI and the VE in 39 Prefecture-Level Cities (PLCs) of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and to evaluate the sustainable development level of grazing in different regions. In addition, the Random Forest (RF) model was used to simulate the GVCI development trend of various PLCs from 2015 to 2040. The results showed the following: (1) The GVCI can effectively quantify the response relationship between GI and the VE. The overall GVCI of the QTP was in the “Harmonization” state, with the proportion of areas in the “Harmonization” state fluctuating upwards. (2) The level of economic development intuitively affects the harmonization between grazing and the VE. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the important indicators of economic development level. PLCs with higher GDP levels exhibited a strong positive correlation between the GVCI and regional GDP. (3) The simulation results indicate that an increasing number of PLCs on the QTP will shift toward a “Harmonization” state. However, some PLCs in the western regions were still in an “Overload” state, and there is a need for close monitoring of their grazing activities and VE dynamics. The GVCI proposed in this study provides a novel methodology for quantifying the complex relationship between GI and the VE. It offers important scientific support for the sustainable development of grazing in ecologically fragile areas such as the QTP. The research results can be a robust scientific basis for the government to formulate reasonable grazing plans.