Crime activity in many cities worldwide causes significant damages to the lives of victims and their surrounding communities. It is a public disorder problem, and big cities experience large amounts of crime events. Spatio-temporal prediction of crimes activity can help the cities to have a better allocation of police resources and surveillance. Deep learning techniques are considered efficient tools to predict future events analyzing the behavior of past ones; however, they are not usually applied to crime event prediction using a spatio-temporal approach. In this paper, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) together with a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network (thus CLSTM-NN) are proposed to predict the presence of crime events over the city of Baltimore (USA). In particular, matrices of past crime events are used as input to a CLSTM-NN to predict the presence of at least one event in future days. The model is implemented on two types of events: “street robbery" and “larceny". The proposed procedure is able to take into account spatial and temporal correlations present in the past data to improve future prediction. The prediction performance of the proposed neural network is assessed under a number of controlled plausible scenarios, using some standard metrics (Accuracy, AUC-ROC, and AUC-PR).
27 February 2024 in Environmental and Ecological Statistics
In the last decade, a large amount of data from vehicle location sensors has been generated due to the massification of GPS systems to track them. This is because these sensors usually include multiple variables such as position, speed, angular position of the vehicle, etc., and, furthermore, they are also usually recorded in very short time intervals. On the other hand, routes are often generated so that they do not correspond to reality, due to artifacts such as buildings, bridges, or sensor failures and where, due to the large amount of data, visual analysis of human expert is unable to detect genuinely anomalous routes. The presence of such abnormalities can lead to faulty sensors being detected which may allow sensor replacement to reliably track the vehicle. However, given the reliability of the available sensors, there are very few examples of such anomalies, which can make it difficult to apply supervised learning techniques. In this work we propose the use of unsupervised deep neural network models based on stacked autoencoders to detect anomalous routes in vehicles within Santiago de Chile. The results show that the proposed model is capable of effectively detecting anomalous paths in real data considering validation given by an expert user, reaching a performance of 82.1% on average. As future work, we propose to incorporate the use of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and attention-based networks in order to improve the detection of anomalous trajectories.
For almost every online service, it is fundamental to understand patterns, differences and trends revealed by age demographic analysis—for example, take the discovery of malicious activity, including identity theft, violation of community guidelines and fake profiles. In the particular case of platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and Yahoo! Answers, user demographics have impacts on their revenues and user experience; demographics assist in ensuring that the needs of each cohort are fulfilled via personalizing and contextualizing content. Despite the fact that technology has been made more accessible, thereby becoming evermore prevalent in both personal and professional lives alike, older people continue to trail Gen Z and Millennials in its adoption. This trailing brings about an under-representation that has a harmful influence on the demographic analysis and on supervised machine learning models. To that end, this paper pioneers attempts at examining this and other major challenges facing three distinct modalities when dealing with community question answering (cQA) platforms (i.e., texts, images and metadata). As for textual inputs, we propose an age-batched greedy curriculum learning (AGCL) approach to lessen the effects of their inherent class imbalances. When built on top of FastText shallow neural networks, AGCL achieved an increase of ca. 4% in macro-F1-score with respect to baseline systems (i.e., off-the-shelf deep neural networks). With regard to metadata, our experiments show that random forest classifiers significantly improve their performance when individuals close to generational borders are excluded (up to 20% more accuracy); and by experimenting with neural network-based visual classifiers, we discovered that images are the most challenging modality for age prediction. In fact, it is hard for a visual inspection to connect profile pictures with age cohorts, and there are considerable differences in their group distributions with respect to meta-data and textual inputs. All in all, we envisage that our findings will be highly relevant as guidelines for constructing assorted multimodal supervised models for automatic age recognition across cQA platforms.
One way to characterize the seismicity in a given zone is through the study of the conditional intensity function of the ETAS model (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) which represents the average number of seismic events greater than given magnitude. Being Chile one of the most seismic country in the world, it is very important to predict where the seismic events will happen with more frequency. In this work we propose a parallel neural network based on the Convolutional Network (CNN) and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, called Multi-Culumn ConvLSTM, using the accumulated crustal velocity and the intensity data as input for predicting the daily mean number of seismic events in Chile with magnitude greater than a given value. For the application, the central zone of Chile between the regions of Coquimbo and Araucanía, in the period from 2010 to 2017 was considered. At the spatial level, each region was partitioned considering a $20\times 20$ dimension grid, while at the temporal level, input data from the last 20 days were used to predict the mean number of seismic events for the following day. The experiments showed that the Multi-column ConvLSTM network obtained the best results in the test set with an average coefficient of determination of 0.81.