By the end of 2023, renewable sources covered 63.4 % of the total electric-power demand of Chile, and, in line with the global trend, photovoltaic (PV) power showed the most dynamic increase. Although Chile's Atacama Desert is considered to be the sunniest place on Earth, PV power production, even in this area, can be highly volatile. Successful integration of PV energy into the country's power grid requires accurate short-term PV power forecasts, which can be obtained from predictions of solar irradiance and related weather quantities. Nowadays, in weather forecasting, the state-of-the-art approach is the use of ensemble forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. However, ensemble forecasts still tend to be uncalibrated or biased, thus requiring some form of post-processing. The present work investigates probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance for regions III and IV in Chile. For this reason, eight-member short-term ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance for the calendar year 2021 are generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; these are then calibrated using the benchmark ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method based on a censored Gaussian law and its machine-learning-based distributional regression network (DRN) counterpart. Furthermore, we also propose a neural-network-based post-processing method, resulting in improved eight-member ensemble predictions. All forecasts are evaluated against station observations for 30 locations in the study area, and the skill of post-processed predictions is compared to the raw WRF ensemble. Our case study confirms that all studied post-processing methods substantially improve both the calibration of probabilistic forecasts and the accuracy of point forecasts. Among the methods tested, the corrected ensemble exhibits the best overall performance. Additionally, the DRN model generally outperforms the corresponding EMOS approach.

Modelling forecast uncertainty is a difficult task in any forecasting problem. In weather forecasting a possible solution is the use of forecast ensembles, which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with various initial conditions and model parametrizations to provide information about the expected uncertainty. Currently all major meteorological centres issue forecasts using their operational ensemble prediction systems. However, it is a general problem that the spread of the ensemble is too small compared to observations at specific sites resulting in under‐dispersive forecasts, leading to a lack of calibration. In order to correct this problem, various statistical calibration techniques have been developed in the last two decades. In the present work different post‐processing techniques were tested for calibrating nine member ensemble forecasts of temperature for Santiago de Chile, obtained by the Weather Research and Forecasting model using different planetary boundary layer and land surface model parametrizations. In particular, the ensemble model output statistics and Bayesian model averaging techniques were implemented and, since the observations are characterized by large altitude differences, the estimation of model parameters was adapted to the actual conditions at hand. Compared to the raw ensemble, all tested post‐processing approaches significantly improve the calibration of probabilistic forecasts and the accuracy of point forecasts. The ensemble model output statistics method using parameter estimation based on expert clustering of stations (according to their altitudes) shows the best forecast skill.

This study evaluates the performance of fourteen high-resolution WRF runs with different combinations of parameterizations in simulating the atmospheric conditions over the complex terrain of central Chile during austral winter and spring. We focus on the validation of results for coastal, interior valleys, and mountainous areas independently, and also present an in-depth analysis of two synoptic-scale events that occurred during the study period: a frontal system and a cut-off low. The performance of the simulations decreases from the coast to higher altitudes, even though the differences are not very clear between the coast and interior valleys for 10 m wind speeds and precipitation. The simulated vertical profiles show a warmer and drier boundary layer and a cooler and moister free atmosphere than observed. The choice of the land-surface model has the largest positive impact on near-surface variables with the five-layer thermal diffusion scheme showing the smallest errors. Precipitation is more sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterizations, with the simplified Arakawa–Schubert scheme generally providing the best performance for absolute errors. When examining the performance of the model simulating rain/no-rain events for different thresholds, also the cumulus parameterizations better represented the false alarm ratio (FAR) and the bias score (BS). However, the Morrison microphysics scheme resulted in the best critical success index (CSI), while the probability of detection (POD) was better in the simulation without analysis nudging. Overall, these results provide guidance to other researchers and help to identify the best WRF configuration for a specific research or operational goal.