Improving population health encompasses not just prolonging life or increasing life expectancy at birth, but also addressing the presence of diseases and the level of functioning [1]. Significant reductions in mortality rates have been achieved in most regions of the world over the past six decades, attributed to advancements in medicine and public health, improved […]

Since most patients with heart failure are re-admitted to the hospital, accurately identifying the risk of re-admission of patients with heart failure is important for clinical decision making and management. This study plans to develop an interpretable predictive model based on a Chinese population for predicting six-month re-admission rates in heart failure patients. Research data were obtained from the PhysioNet portal. To ensure robustness, we used three approaches for variable selection. Six different machine learning models were estimated based on selected variables. The ROC curve, prediction accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the performance of the established models. In addition, we visualized the optimized model with a nomogram. In all, 2002 patients with heart failure were included in this study. Of these, 773 patients experienced re-admission and a six-month re-admission incidence of 38.61%. Based on evaluation metrics, the logistic regression model performed best in the validation cohort, with an AUC of 0.634 (95%CI: 0.599–0.646) and an accuracy of 0.652. A nomogram was also generated. The established prediction model has good discrimination ability in predicting. Our findings are helpful and could provide useful information for the allocation of healthcare resources and for improving the quality of survival of heart failure patients.

Background: Predicting cognition decline in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial for identifying high-risk individuals and implementing effective management. To improve predicting MCI-to-AD conversion, it is necessary to consider various factors using explainable machine learning (XAI) models which provide interpretability while maintaining predictive accuracy. This study used the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) model with multimodal features to predict the conversion of MCI to AD during different follow-up periods while providing interpretability. Methods: This retrospective case-control study is conducted with data obtained from the ADNI database, with records of 1042 MCI patients from 2006 to 2022 included. The exposures included in this study were MRI biomarkers, cognitive scores, demographics, and clinical features. The main outcome was AD conversion from aMCI during follow-up. The EBM model was utilized to predict aMCI converting to AD based on three feature combinations, obtaining interpretability while ensuring accuracy. Meanwhile, the interaction effect was considered in the model. The three feature combinations were compared in different follow-up periods with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC-ROC. The global and local explanations are displayed by importance ranking and feature interpretability plots. Results: The five-years prediction accuracy reached 85% (AUC = 0.92) using both cognitive scores and MRI markers. Apart from accuracies, we obtained features’ importance in different follow-up periods. In early stage of AD, the MRI markers play a major role, while for middle-term, the cognitive scores are more important. Feature risk scoring plots demonstrated insightful nonlinear interactive associations between selected factors and outcome. In one-year prediction, lower right inferior temporal volume (<9000) is significantly associated with AD conversion. For two-year prediction, low left inferior temporal thickness (4) is the most important. During four-year prediction, APOE4 is the most critical. For five-year prediction, lower right entorhinal volume (<1000) is the most critical feature. Conclusions: The established glass-box model EBMs with multimodal features demonstrated a superior ability with detailed interpretability in predicting AD conversion from MCI. Multi features with significant importance were identified. Further study may be of significance to determine whether the established prediction tool would improve clinical management for AD patients.

Diet plays a crucial role in regulating individuals’ lifestyles and is closely related to health. The intake of animal-sourced foods (ASF) provides the human body with high-quality protein and various micronutrients. This study aimed to investigate whether the diversity of animal foods has a positive impact on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among residents. The data came from the Shaanxi baseline survey of the Northwest Chinese Regional Ethnic Cohort Study, which recruited more than 100 thousand participants aged 35 to 74 from five provinces between June 2018 and May 2019. A total of 39,997 participants in Shaanxi (mean age: 50 years; 64% women) were finally included in this current study. The animal source food diet diversity score (ASFDDS) was established based on the frequency of consuming pork, mutton, beef, poultry, seafood, eggs, pure milk, and yogurt. The physical component score (PCS) and mental component score (MCS), ranging from 0 to 100 on the 12-Item Short Form Survey (SF-12), were used to assess participants’ HRQoL. Better PCS/MCS was defined as scores higher than the 90th percentile. The results showed that men had a higher intake of ASF and ASFDDS than women. After adjusting for potential confounders, compared with those who never or rarely consumed animal foods, the likelihood of having better PCS and MCS increased by 16% (OR = 1.16, 95%CI: 1.01–1.34) and 24% (OR = 1.24, 95%CI: 1.03–1.448), respectively, in men with an ASFDDS ≥ 2. In women, a 34% increase (OR = l.34, 95%CI: 116–l.54) likelihood for better PCS was observed for an ASFDDS ≥ 2, but no association was observed for MCS. Increasing each specific animal source’s food intake was associated with better PCS after adjusting for all covariates. However, for MCS, positive associations were only observed in seafood consumption among men and eggs among women. Restricted cubic splines showed a substantial dose-response association between intake frequency of animal-source foods and PCS, both in men and women. The study suggests that a diverse intake of animal-sourced foods can potentially improve the HRQoL of Chinese adults.

Introduction: To identify the key risk factors influencing in-ICU mortality of patients with sepsis and develop prognosis prediction models for patients with culture-positive sepsis (CPS) and culture-negative sepsis (CNS) patients.Material and methods: Data were extracted from the MIMIC-IV database, which included 9288 patients with sepsis. The whole sample was divided into CPS (6622 patients) and CNS groups (2666 patients). We established six machine learning models, including DT, RF, NB, XGB, GBDT and NNET, to predict in-ICU death for all study samples, CPS and CNS subgroups, respectively. Model performance were assessed using AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. SHAP values were used to explain the effect of variables on model results.Results: The in-ICU mortality rate was 54.58% for the whole study sample, the difference in in-ICU mortality between the CPS (55.19%) and CNS (53.04%) groups was not statistically significant. Main Significant influential factors identified included Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), number of days in hospital, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), older age, total bilirubin (TBil). The XGB model performed best in the overall sample (AUC = 0.782), while the GBDT model was most effective for the CPS group (AUC = 0.7813) and the CNS group (AUC = 0.7582).Conclusions: This study identified key risk factors for in-ICU death in patients with sepsis and highlights differences in clinical characteristics between patients with CPS and CNS. These findings may contribute to the development of personalized treatment strategies and risk assessment, thereby improving the prognosis of septic patients, especially patients with CNS.