Transboundary water resources allocation is an effective measure to resolve water-related conflicts. Aiming at the problem of water conflicts, we constructed water resources allocation models based on game theory and multi-objective optimization, and revealed the differences between the two models. We compare the Pareto front solved by the AR-MOEA method and the NSGA-II method, and analyzed the difference between the Nash–Harsanyi Leader–Follower game model and the multi-objective optimization model. The Huaihe River basin was selected as a case study. The results show that: (1) The AR-MOEA method is better than the NSGA-II method in terms of the diversity metric (); (2) the solution of the asymmetric Nash–Harsanyi Leader–Follower game model is a non-dominated solution, and the asymmetric game model can obtain the same water resources allocation scheme of the multi-objective optimal allocation model under a specific preference structure; (3) after the multi-objective optimization model obtains the Pareto front, it still needs to construct the preference information of the Pareto front for a second time to make the optimal solution of a multi-objective decision, while the game model can directly obtain the water resources allocation scheme at one time by participating in the negotiation. The results expand the solution method of water resources allocation models and provide support for rational water resources allocation.
23 August 2023 in Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
In a deregulated electricity market, optimal hydropower operation should be achieved through informed decisions to facilitate the delivery of energy production in forward markets and energy purchase level from other power producers within real-time markets. This study develops a stochastic programming model that considers the influence of uncertain streamflow on hydropower energy production and the effect of variable spot energy prices on the cost of energy purchase (energy shortfall). The proposed model is able to handle uncertainties expressed by both a probability distribution and discretized scenarios. Conflicting decisions are resolved by maximizing the expected value of net revenue, which jointly considers benefit and cost terms under uncertainty. Methodologies are verified using a case study of the Three Gorges cascade hydropower system. The results demonstrate that optimal operation policies are derived based upon systematic evaluations on the benefit and cost terms that are affected by multiple uncertainties. Moreover, near-optimal operation policy under the case of inaccurate spot price forecasts is also analyzed. The results also show that a proper policy for guiding hydropower operation seeks the best compromise between energy production and energy purchase levels, which explores their nonlinear tradeoffs over different time periods.
The Yellow River Basin (YRB) serves as a critical ecological functional and economic zone in China. However, due to the rapid economic and social development, the YRB has encountered dual pressure from the anthropogenic disturbances and climate change, leading to intensified conflicts among production, living, and ecological spaces (PLES). In this study, we examined the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and transition mode of the PLES from 1980 to 2020 at the county level, evaluated the eco-environmental effects, and identified the key driving factors. The results indicate that land-use changes in the YRB are marked by a continuous increase in living space, while ecological spaces initially decreased before increasing, and production spaces initially increased before decreasing, with the year 2000 serving as a pivotal point in these transitions. At the county level, land-use transformations in the YRB have significant spatial differentiation. The north region of the Hu Line is predominantly characterized by a reduction in ecological space, whereas the south primarily exhibits declines in production space and increases in living space in the downstream region. Consequently, the environmental quality index (EQI) also exhibits a trend of an initial decline followed by an increase. Frequent mutual conversions between production and ecological spaces influenced by major national ecological conservation policies after 2000, as well as pressure from living spaces on production spaces influenced by population and GDP growth, have been the primary manifestations of spatial transformation in the region. These findings suggest that with the implementation of appropriate governance measures, exploring the transformation of PLES at a finer county level can provide a clearer pattern of spatiotemporal changes, supporting detailed basin management for sustainable development.
In the real-time flood control operation of multi-reservoir systems, it is of great significance to establish a dynamic operating system with high efficiency based on the spatiotemporal variation of flood control situations. This paper proposes a self-adaptive modeling framework for real-time flood control operation of multi-reservoirs based on the cyber–physical system (CPS) theory. Firstly, the random flood samples considering the randomness of both space and magnitude are generated, and then the multi-reservoir real-time flood control hybrid operation (MRFCHO) model is established based on the dynamic identification of effective reservoirs. Then, the CPS theory is introduced to put forward the multi-reservoir real-time flood control hybrid operation cyber–physical system (MRFCHOCPS), which integrates real-time monitoring, control center, database, computation module, and communication network. Finally, the proposed framework is demonstrated in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability in real-time flood control operations. A case study of the multi-reservoir system upstream of the Lutaizi point in the Huaihe River basin in China reveals that (1) the equivalent qualified rate of the MRFCHO model is 84.9% for random flood samples; (2) the efficiency of solving the MRFCHO model is much higher than the efficiency of solving the MRFCJO model under the premise of ensuring the flood control effect, so it provides a reliable method for the real-time operation of basin-wide floods; (3) the MRFCHOCPS has good adaptability in real-time dynamic modeling and operation of large-scale multi-reservoir systems.
Reservoir operation optimization is a technical measure for flood control and is beneficial owing to its reasonable and reliable control and application of existing water conservancy and hydropower hubs, while ensuring dam safety and flood control, as well as the normal operation of power supply and water supply. Considering the beneficial functions of reservoirs, namely flood control and ecological protection, this paper firstly established a two-objective optimal operation model for the reservoir group in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. We aim to maximize the average output of the cascade reservoir group and minimize the average change in ecological flow during the operation period under efficient sediment transport conditions, with the coordination degree of water and sediment as the constraints of reservoir discharge flows. The paper aims to construct an evaluation index system for reservoir operation schemes, apply a combined approach of objective and subjective evaluations, and introduce the gray target and cumulative prospect theories. By uniformly quantifying the established scheme evaluation index system, screening the reservoir operation schemes with the fuzzy evaluation method, and selecting the recommended scheme for each typical year, this paper provides a new scientific formulation of the operation schemes of reservoirs in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The selected schemes are compared with actual data, demonstrating the effectiveness of joint reservoir operation and for multidimensional benefits in terms of power generation, ecology, and flood control.