Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) as the first international grass-roots effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, and hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than 40 groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth system models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups. This paper provides an overview of the history and objectives of LS4P, provides the first-phase experimental protocol (LS4P-I) which focuses on the remote effect of the Tibetan Plateau, discusses the LST/SUBT initialization, and presents the preliminary results. Multi-model ensemble experiments and analyses of observational data have revealed that the hydroclimatic effect of the spring LST on the Tibetan Plateau is not limited to the Yangtze River basin but may have a significant large-scale impact on summer precipitation beyond East Asia and its S2S prediction. Preliminary studies and analysis have also shown that LS4P models are unable to preserve the initialized LST anomalies in producing the observed anomalies largely for two main reasons: (i) inadequacies in the land models arising from total soil depths which are too shallow and the use of simplified parameterizations, which both tend to limit the soil memory; (ii) reanalysis data, which are used for initial conditions, have large discrepancies from the observed mean state and anomalies of LST over the Tibetan Plateau. Innovative approaches have been developed to largely overcome these problems.

Climate change is linked to changing precipitation, yet uncertainty remains as to whether and how hydroclimatic changes will influence flood frequency, magnitude, and timing. Part of this uncertainty is because few regional‐scale studies have analyzed changes in floods produced by different mechanisms. We identify six flood generating mechanisms (FGMs) based on prominent meteorological processes and moisture supply to the soil column in the Western U.S.; these include large‐scale frontal storms (atmospheric and non‐atmospheric rivers), monsoons, convective storms, snowmelt, and rain‐on‐snow. We assess trends in the frequency, magnitude, and timing of floods produced by different FGMs across 119 basins during 1960–2018. Overall, we find decreased frequency and magnitude of rain‐on‐snow‐driven floods, increased frequency and magnitude of convective‐storm‐driven floods, and a temporal shift to earlier in the year for snowmelt‐driven floods. The flood characteristics are generally stable for floods produced by other FGMs.

This study employs a fully coupled meteorology‐chemistry‐snow model to investigate the impacts of light‐absorbing particles (LAPs) on snow darkening in the Sierra Nevada. After comprehensive evaluation with spatially and temporally complete satellite retrievals, the model shows that LAPs in snow reduce snow albedo by 0.013 (0–0.045) in the Sierra Nevada during the ablation season (April‐July), producing a midday mean radiative forcing of 4.5 W m⁻² which increases to 15–22 W m⁻² in July. LAPs in snow accelerate snow aging processes and reduce snow cover fraction, which doubles the albedo change and radiative forcing caused by LAPs. The impurity‐induced snow darkening effects decrease snow water equivalent and snow depth by 20 and 70 mm in June in the Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep habitat. The earlier snowmelt reduces root‐zone soil water content by 20%, deteriorating the forage productivity and playing a negative role in the survival of bighorn sheep.

With the highest albedo of the land surface, snow plays a vital role in Earth's surface energy budget and water cycle. Snow albedo is primarily controlled by snow grain properties (e.g., size and shape) and light-absorbing particles (LAPs) such as black carbon (BC) and dust. The mixing state of LAPs in snow also has impacts on LAP-induced snow albedo reduction and surface radiative forcing (RF). However, most land surface models assume that snow grain shape is spherical and LAPs are externally mixed with the snow grains. This study improves the snow radiative transfer model in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.0 (E3SM v2.0) Land Model (ELM v2.0) by considering non-spherical snow grain shapes (i.e., spheroid, hexagonal plate, and Koch snowflake) and internal mixing of dust–snow, and it systematically evaluates the impacts on the surface energy budget and water cycle over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A series of ELM simulations with different treatments of snow grain shape, mixing state of BC–snow and dust–snow, and sub-grid topographic effects (TOP) on solar radiation are performed. Compared with two remote sensing snow products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the control ELM simulation (ELM_Control) with the default configurations of spherical snow grain shape, internal mixing of BC–snow, external mixing of dust–snow, and without TOP as well as the ELM simulation with new model features (ELM_New) can both capture the overall snow distribution reasonably. Additionally, ELM_New overall shows smaller biases in snow cover fraction than ELM_Control in spring when snowmelt is important for water management. The estimated LAP-induced RF in ELM_New ranges from 0 to 19.3 W m⁻² with the area-weighted average value of 1.5 W m⁻² that is comparable to the reported values in existing studies. The Koch snowflake shape, among other non-spherical shapes, shows the largest difference from the spherical shape in spring when snow processes related to the surface energy budget and water cycle have high importance. The impacts of the mixing state of LAP in snow are smaller than the shape effects and depend on snow grain shape. Compared to external mixing, internal mixing of LAP–snow can lead to larger snow albedo reduction and snowmelt, which further affect the surface energy budget and water cycle. The individual contributions of non-spherical snow shape, mixing state of LAP–snow, and local topography impacts on the snow and surface fluxes have different signs and magnitudes, and their combined effects may be negative or positive due to complex and nonlinear interactions among the factors. Overall, the changes in net solar radiation in spring due to individual and combined effects range from −28.6 to 16.9 W m⁻² and −29.7 to 12.2 W m⁻², respectively. This study advances understanding of the role of snow grain shape and mixing state of LAP–snow in land surface processes and offers guidance for improving snow simulations and RF estimates in Earth system models under climate change.

Fire is one of the primary disturbances to the distribution and ecological properties of the world's major biomes and can influence the surface fluxes and climate through vegetation–climate interactions. This study incorporates a fire model of intermediate complexity to a biophysical model with dynamic vegetation, SSiB4/TRIFFID (The Simplified Simple Biosphere Model coupled with the Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model). This new model, SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire, updating fire impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle every 10 d, is then used to simulate the burned area during 1948–2014. The simulated global burned area in 2000–2014 is 471.9 Mha yr⁻¹, close to the estimate of 478.1 Mha yr⁻¹ in Global Fire Emission Database v4s (GFED4s), with a spatial correlation of 0.8. The SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire reproduces temporal variations of the burned area at monthly to interannual scales. Specifically, it captures the observed decline trend in northern African savanna fire and accurately simulates the fire seasonality in most major fire regions. The simulated fire carbon emission is 2.19 Pg yr⁻¹, slightly higher than the GFED4s (2.07 Pg yr⁻¹). The SSiB4/TRIFFID-Fire is applied to assess the long-term fire impact on ecosystem characteristics and surface energy budget by comparing model runs with and without fire (FIRE-ON minus FIRE-OFF). The FIRE-ON simulation reduces tree cover over 4.5 % of the global land surface, accompanied by a decrease in leaf area index and vegetation height by 0.10 m² m⁻² and 1.24 m, respectively. The surface albedo and sensible heat are reduced throughout the year, while latent heat flux decreases in the fire season but increases in the rainy season. Fire results in an increase in surface temperature over most fire regions.