A new advanced model for estimation of surface solar irradiance from satellite (AMESIS), designed to estimate with better accuracy the incident solar radiation at the surface from the spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI) satellite measurements, has been developed. The new generations of sensors such as SEVIRI payload on board the geostationary meteosat second generation gives an opportunity to improve the solar irradiance estimation at surface with accuracy as well as the high spatial and time resolution for a large geographical area according to the needs of solar energy applications. The model developed takes into account the effect of aerosol, the overcast and partially cloudy coverage, and provides irradiance solar maps every 15 min both for monitoring purposes and for monthly, annual averages of surface solar irradiance. Cloud and aerosol microphysical parameters are retrieved by using VIS and IR SEVIRI channels, while surface solar irradiance is retrieved through the high-resolution broadband visible channel. Comparisons with the Global Atmosphere Watch station ground-based measurements of incoming solar radiation agree with the values retrieved with AMESIS model. The results show a very good correlation of about 0.99, a root mean square and a bias ranging, respectively, between 1 and 2.7 J/cm² and -0.6 and 0.4 J/cm² depending on the station.

This study investigates the value of satellite-based observational algorithms in supporting numerical weather prediction (NWP) for improving the alert and monitoring of extreme rainfall events. To this aim, the analysis of the very intense precipitation that affected the city of Livorno on 9 and 10 September 2017 is performed by applying three remote sensing techniques based on satellite observations at infrared/visible and microwave frequencies and by using maps of accumulated rainfall from the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The satellite-based observational algorithms are the precipitation evolving technique (PET), the rain class evaluation from infrared and visible observations (RainCEIV) technique and the cloud classification mask coupling of statistical and physics methods (C-MACSP). Moreover, the rain rates estimated by the Italian Weather Radar Network are also considered to get a quantitative evaluation of RainCEIV and PET performance. The statistical assessment shows good skills for both the algorithms (for PET: bias = 1.03, POD = 0.76, FAR = 0.26; for RainCEIV: bias = 1.33, POD = 0.77, FAR = 0.41). In addition, a qualitative comparison among the three technique outputs, rain rate radar maps, and WRF accumulated rainfall maps is also carried out in order to highlight the advantages of the different techniques in providing real-time monitoring, as well as quantitative characterization of rainy areas, especially when rain rate measurements from Weather Radar Network and/or from rain gauges are not available.

In this study, we compare different nowcasting techniques based upon the calculation of motion vector fields derived from spectral channels of Meteosat Second Generation—Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (MSG-SEVIRI). The outputs of the nowcasting techniques are used as inputs to the Advanced Model for Estimation of Surface solar Irradiance from Satellite (AMESIS), for predicting surface solar irradiance up to 2 h in advance. In particular, the first part of the methodology consists in projecting the time evolution of each MSG-SEVIRI channel (for every pixel in the spatial domain) through extrapolation of a displacement vector field obtained by matching similar patterns within two successive MSG-SEVIRI data images. Different ways to implement the above method result in substantial differences in the predicted trajectory, leading to different performances depending on the time interval of interest. All the nowcasting techniques considered here systematically outperform the simple persistence method for all MSG-SEVIRI channels and for each case study used in this work; importantly, this occurs across the entire 2 h period of the forecast. In the second part of the algorithm, the predicted irradiance maps computed with AMESIS from the forecasted radiances, are shown to be in good agreement with irradiances derived from MSG measured radiances and improve on numerical weather model predictions, thus providing a feasible alternative for nowcasting surface solar radiation. The results show that the mean values for correlation, bias, and root mean square error vary across the time interval, ranging between 0.94, −1 W/m ${}^2$ , 61 W/m ${}^2$ after 15 min, and 0.73, −18 W/m ${}^2$ , 147 W/m ${}^2$ after 2 h, respectively.

In this paper, the analysis of an extreme convective event atypical for the winter season, which occurred on 21 February 2013 on the east coast of Sicily and caused a flash flood over Catania, is presented. In just 1 h, more than 50 mm of precipitation was recorded, but it was not forecast by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and, consequently, no severe weather warnings were sent to the population. The case study proposed is first examined with respect to the synoptic situation and then analyzed by means of two algorithms based on satellite observations: the Cloud Mask Coupling of Statistical and Physical Methods (MACSP) and the Precipitation Evolving Technique (PET), developed at the National Research Council of Italy. Both of the algorithms show their ability in the near-real-time monitoring of convective cell formation and their rapid evolution. As quantitative precipitation forecasts by NWP could fail, especially for atypical convective events like in Catania, tools like MACSP and PET shall be adopted by civil protection centers to monitor the real-time evolution of deep convection events in aid to the severe weather warning service.

This study exploits the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)–Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) observations to evaluate the rain class at high spatial and temporal resolutions and, to this aim, proposes the Rain Class Evaluation from Infrared and Visible observation (RainCEIV) technique. RainCEIV is composed of two modules: a cloud classification algorithm which individuates and characterizes the cloudy pixels, and a supervised classifier that delineates the rainy areas according to the three rainfall intensity classes, the non-rainy (rain rate value < 0.5 mm h^-1) class, the light-to-moderate rainy class (0.5 mm h⁻¹ ≤ rain rate value < 4 mm h^-1), and the heavy–to-very-heavy-rainy class (rain rate value ≥ 4 mm h^-1). The second module considers as input the spectral and textural features of the infrared and visible SEVIRI observations for the cloudy pixels detected by the first module. It also takes the temporal differences of the brightness temperatures linked to the SEVIRI water vapour channels as indicative of the atmospheric instability strongly related to the occurrence of rainfall events. The rainfall rates used in the training phase are obtained through the Precipitation Estimation at Microwave frequencies, PEMW (an algorithm for rain rate retrievals based on Atmospheric Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU)-B observations). RainCEIV's principal aim is that of supplying preliminary qualitative information on the rainy areas within the Mediterranean Basin where there is no radar network coverage. The results of RainCEIV have been validated against radar-derived rainfall measurements from the Italian Operational Weather Radar Network for some case studies limited to the Mediterranean area. The dichotomous assessment related to daytime (nighttime) validation shows that RainCEIV is able to detect rainy/non-rainy areas with an accuracy of about 97% (96%), and when all the rainy classes are considered, it shows a Heidke skill score of 67% (62%), a bias score of 1.36 (1.58), and a probability of detection of rainy areas of 81% (81%).