Balancing the production and consumption of electricity is an urgent task. Its implementation largely depends on the means and methods of planning electricity production. Forecasting is one of the planning tools since the availability of an accurate forecast is a mechanism for increasing the validity of management decisions. This study provides an overview of the methods used to predict electricity supply requirements to different objects. The methods have been reviewed analytically, taking into account the forecast classification according to the anticipation period. In this way, the methods used in operative, short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasting have been considered. Both classical and modern forecasting methods have been identified when forecasting electric energy consumption. Classical forecasting methods are based on the theory of regression and statistical analysis (regression, autoregressive models); probabilistic forecasting methods and modern forecasting methods use classical and deep-machine-learning algorithms, rank analysis methodology, fuzzy set theory, singular spectral analysis, wavelet transformations, Gray models, etc. Due to the need to take into account the specifics of each subject area characterizing an energy facility to obtain reliable forecast results, power consumption modeling remains an urgent task despite a wide variety of other methods. The review was conducted with an assessment of the methods according to the following criteria: labor intensity, requirements for the initial data set, scope of application, accuracy of the forecasting method, the possibility of application for other forecasting horizons. The above classification of methods according to the anticipation period allows highlights the fact that when predicting power consumption for different time intervals, the same methods are often used. Therefore, it is worth emphasizing the importance of classifying the forecast over the forecasting horizon not to differentiate the methods used to predict electricity consumption for each period but to consider the specifics of each type of forecasting (operative, short-term, medium-term, long-term).
The article reviews the existing methods of increasing the energy efficiency of electric transport by analyzing and studying the methods of increasing the energy storage resource. It is grouped according to methods, approaches, and solutions. The most effective methods and ways of their implementation are identified. General methods of increasing energy efficiency, methods of increasing recuperation during braking, methods of energy-efficient energy consumption, the use of energy-saving technologies, and improving the energy efficiency of the traction drive are considered. The purpose of this work is to identify the main operating factors on the basis of a critical review of existing methods for assessing the technical condition of batteries and experimental results on the degradation of lithium-ion batteries. Using the great experience of the research group in the field of modeling, diagnostics, and forecasting of life of electric cars, as well as their intellectual management, the new theoretical and practical methods of integrated assessment of the parameters of the traction battery and state of charge, which are operated in the heavy forced regenerative regimes of electric traction, are created and proposed. A great role is played by the construction of the transport model. The development is based on physical laws that passengers and vehicle owners are unaware of. For each model there is a different area of application, and what is suitable for one object may not be suitable for another. The overview shows that there is no one-size-fits-all way to improve energy efficiency. It is necessary to make a choice among several proposed models after a thorough feasibility study.
Modern power and transportation systems are subject to high requirements for reliability and performance in performing their specified functions. At the same time, these requirements are constantly increasing with the increasing complexity of technology and the introduction of electronics and computer technology into its structure. This is fully applicable to energy and transportation infrastructure, including electric vehicles. The complexity of the systems and increasing requirements for them have led to the fact that the problem of increasing their operational reliability has acquired great importance. The article presents a review of methods and justification of ensuring a high level of reliability and serviceability of technical systems as one of the most important tasks in the creation and operation of complex systems, such as modern energy and transportation systems. It is shown that a significant reserve in solving the problem of increasing the reliability and performance of technical systems is the information on failures and malfunctions of these systems obtained from the field of operation. The methodology of collection and processing of statistical information on failures of vehicles described by different distribution laws is outlined.
Currently, the estimated range of an electric vehicle is a variable value. The assessment of this power reserve is possible by various methods, and the results of the assessment by these methods will be quite different. Thus, building a model based on these cycles is an extremely important task for manufacturers of electric vehicles. In this paper, a simulation model was developed to determine the range of an electric vehicle by cycles of movement. A mathematical model was created to study the power reserve of an electric vehicle, taking into account four driving cycles, in which the lengths of cycles and the forces acting on the electric vehicle are determined; the calculation of the forces of resistance to movement was carried out taking into account the efficiency of the electric motor; thus, the energy consumption of an electric vehicle is determined. The modeling of the study of motion cycles on the presented model was carried out. The mathematical evaluation of battery life was based on simulation results. Simulation modeling of an electric vehicle in the MATLAB Simulink software environment was performed. An assessment of the power reserve of the developed electric vehicle was completed. The power reserve was estimated using the four most common driving cycles—NEDC, WLTC, JC08, US06. Studies have shown that the highest speed of the presented US06 cycle provides the shortest range of an electric vehicle. The JC08 and NEDC cycles have similar developed speeds in urban conditions, while in NEDC there is a phase of out-of-town traffic; therefore, due to the higher speed, the electric vehicle covers a greater distance in equal time compared to JC08. At the same time, the NEDC cycle is the least dynamic and the acceleration values do not exceed 1 m/s2. Low dynamics allow for a longer range of an electric vehicle; however, the actual urban operation of an electric vehicle requires more dynamics. The cycles of movement presented in the article provide a sufficient variety and variability of the load of an electric vehicle and its battery over a wide range, which made it possible to conduct effective studies of the energy consumed, taking into account the recovery of electricity to the battery in a wide range of loads. It was determined that frequent braking, taking into account operation including in urban traffic, provides a significant return of electricity to the battery.
In this paper, we investigate mathematical models of meteorological forecasting based on the work of neural networks, which allow us to calculate presumptive meteorological parameters of the desired location on the basis of previous meteorological data. A new method of grouping neural networks to obtain a more accurate output result is proposed. An algorithm is presented, based on which the most accurate meteorological forecast was obtained based on the results of the study. This algorithm can be used in a wide range of situations, such as obtaining data for the operation of equipment in a given location and studying meteorological parameters of the location. To build this model, we used data obtained from personal weather stations of the Weather Underground company and the US National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). Also, a Google remote learning machine was used to compare the results with existing products on the market. The algorithm for building the forecast model covered several locations across the US in order to compare its performance in different weather zones. Different methods of training the machine to produce the most effective weather forecast result were also considered.
This article proposes a calculation method for mechanical (electromagnetic) forces arising in an electromechanical energy converter acting on current circuits in a magnetic field, or on capacitor plates in an electric one. Transformations were performed on the basis of the principle of possible displacements involving the apparatus of partial derivatives. It was found that the power converted into mechanical power is partially spent on changing the energy of the electromagnetic field, and the remaining power, determined by the co-energy, is converted into mechanical power. Expressions for the mechanical (electromagnetic) forces were obtained based on the power balance. The reliability of the obtained results was compared with the known results. Of these, one can observe the well-known 50/50 principle, which states that only part of the power associated with the movement of the circuits is converted into mechanical power, while the rest is intended for changing the energy of the magnetic field.