The article presents the results of a study on the assessment of modern space–time trends of extreme values of air temperature and precipitation in 42 meteorological stations throughout Kazakhstan for the period from 1971 to 2020. Spatial and temporal analysis of the distribution of specialized climatic indices was recommended by the WMO climatology commission and an assessment of their trends was carried out. Spatial heterogeneity was revealed in terms of the degree of manifestation of changes and trends. Temperature indices are shown to confirm the overall warming trend. The division of the territory of Kazakhstan by the degree of manifestation of climate change into the southwestern and northeastern half was revealed. Extreme trends are most pronounced in the southwestern half, where a significant trend has been identified both for an increase in extremely high daytime and extremely low night temperatures. The calculated trends in temperature indices are generally significant, but the significance is mainly not ubiquitous; the trends are significant only in certain parts of Kazakhstan. WSDI and CSDI trends were found to confirm a widespread increase in the overall duration of heat waves and a reduction in the overall duration of cold waves. No significant extreme effects were found in the sediments. It is confirmed that Kazakhstan has weak, statistically insignificant, positive and negative trends in the maximum duration of the non-traveling period. Precipitation index trends, unlike temperature ones, are statistically insignificant in most of the country.
In such drought-prone regions as Kazakhstan, research on regional drought characteristics and their formation conditions is of paramount importance for actions to mitigate drought risks caused by climate change. This paper presents the results of research on the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric droughts as one of the most important factors hindering the formation of crop yields. The influence of several potential predictors characterizing teleconnection in the coupled “atmosphere–ocean” system and cosmic-geophysical factors affecting their formation is analyzed. The spatial relationships between atmospheric aridity at the individual stations of the investigated area and the wheat yield in Kazakhstan as well as its relationships with potential predictors were determined using econometric methods. High correlation was shown between wheat yield fluctuations and Multivariate El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), galactic cosmic radiation, solar activity, and atmospheric drought expressed through the soil moisture index, which in turn depends on precipitation levels and temperatures. The model could be modified further so that the individual components could be forecasted into the future using various time series in an ARIMA model. The resulting integration of these forecasts would allow the prediction of wheat yields in the future. The obtained results can be used in the process of creating effective mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and droughts based on their early diagnosis.
Reducing atmospheric emissions through the introduction of circular economy principles is one of the current tasks of sustainable regional development. The purpose of this research is to study the impact of the actions taken by Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V. (KPO) to reduce air pollution, and, based on this, to evaluate the potential of forming a circular economy in one of the biggest regions of Kazakhstan in which KPO is operating. The air pollution in the region is related to the oil and gas production activities of the company. This study was conducted using econometric modeling and statistical and comparative analyses. This study’s value lies in its interdisciplinary approach, which made it possible to combine environmental and economic criteria for sustainable regional development with the features of emissions and waste management technologies within the industry. Studying the production activities and analyzing the impact of KPO on the development of the region in the period from 2012 to 2022 made it possible to construct a matrix of the restorative potential of a circular economy in the region. A model for the formation of a circular economy was proposed, which is based on the introduction of innovations, investments in environmental protection, and the use of the best available technologies for reinjecting gas into the reservoir, increasing energy efficiency, and recycling waste, which resulted in a significant (2.2 times) reduction in the amount of air pollution in the region. According to the forecast model (2024–2028), it was determined that, in the case of maintaining certain independent indicators’ dynamics of development, the level of atmospheric emissions by KPO could be reduced by two times. The results of this work prove that further studies on the problems associated with reducing atmospheric pollution within the framework of the formation of a circular economy are quite promising. Additionally, the results of this study are interesting and may be useful for the implementation of measures to manage air quality in the region by managers, heads of organizations, state and local authorities, and researchers interested in promoting the Environmental Social Governance (ESG) concept of sustainable development.
In Central Asian countries (CACs) atmosphere pollution is increasing due to population growth, economic growth, agricultural development, energy consumption and climate change. The countries of the region developed climate change adaptation strategies—Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At the same time, regional integration, which should be a necessary condition for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the solving of general environmental problems, is not involved. This article shows the importance of a comprehensive analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) and non-greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere for the entire Central Asian region as a single ecosystem. The energy intensity of national economies structure was chosen as the main factor determining the level of pollution. The analysis shows that over the past 30 years, the main part of the commodity exports (73.6–81.4%) of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan has been fossil natural resources. There is a strong economic dependence on coal and other types of fuel, which leads to atmospheric emissions. The analysis shows that limited financial resources, lack of effective systemic monitoring and control of air quality that meets modern international requirements and standards, leads to absence of tangible changes in practice yet. Over 30 years in CACs, the share of CO2 emissions associated with fuel combustion has not decreased and amounts to 78%. The key mechanisms for reducing atmospheric emissions are significantly increase investments in the transformation of the economies in the context of regional development, interstate cooperation, the introduction of environmental norms, standards harmonized with world ones, green technologies based on alternative energy, sustainable transport and logistics infrastructure.
The main approaches and methods of studying the characteristics and conditions of atmospheric pollution on the example of Western Kazakhstan are considered. The classification and grouping of applied approaches by topics, methods, time intervals and other relevant criteria was conducted. An analysis of the available information on the sources and volumes of emissions into the atmosphere, as well as on the systems for monitoring the pollution of the air basin, was carried out. It is shown that to increase the effectiveness of the atmospheric air quality management system, it is expedient to use a complex approach taking into account the influence of meteorological factors and synoptic conditions that determine different levels of pollution. An analytical review of modern methods of modeling the spread of pollutants in atmospheric air showed the feasibility of using statistical methods integrated with deep machine learning and the Eulerian continuum model of turbulent diffusion. The obtained conclusions will allow further use of an integrated approach to improve the atmospheric air quality management system of the studied region.