Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×10⁶km²of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.

Thawing submarine permafrost is a source of methane to the subsurface biosphere. Methane oxidation in submarine permafrost sediments has been proposed, but the responsible microorganisms remain uncharacterized. We analyzed archaeal communities and identified distinct anaerobic methanotrophic assemblages of marine and terrestrial origin (ANME-2a/b, ANME-2d) both in frozen and completely thawed submarine permafrost sediments. Besides archaea potentially involved in anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) we found a large diversity of archaea mainly belonging toBathyarchaeota,Thaumarchaeota, andEuryarchaeota. Methane concentrations and δ¹³C-methane signatures distinguish horizons of potential AOM coupled either to sulfate reduction in a sulfate-methane transition zone (SMTZ) or to the reduction of other electron acceptors, such as iron, manganese or nitrate. Analysis of functional marker genes (mcrA) and fluorescencein situhybridization (FISH) corroborate potential activity of AOM communities in submarine permafrost sediments at low temperatures. Modeled potential AOM consumes 72–100% of submarine permafrost methane and up to 1.2 Tg of carbon per year for the total expected area of submarine permafrost. This is comparable with AOM habitats such as cold seeps. We thus propose that AOM is active where submarine permafrost thaws, which should be included in global methane budgets.

Arctic coastal erosion experiences pronounced effects from ongoing climate change. The Laptev Sea figures among the Arctic regions with the most severe erosion rates. Here, we use unprecedentedly long records of almost 30 years of annual in‐situ coastal erosion rate measurements from Bykovsky Peninsula and Muostakh Island to separate the main modes of variability, which we attribute to large‐scale drivers. The first (lower‐frequency) and second (higher‐frequency) modes are associated with winter sea‐ice cover in the Laptev Sea and with the Arctic Oscillation, respectively, which together account for of the total observed variance. Arctic coastal erosion has so far been neglected in Earth system models (ESMs). The proposed mechanisms set favorable conditions for coastal erosion at large scales (synoptic to planetary scales), compatible with those represented in modern ESMs.

Thawing of subsea permafrost can impact offshore infrastructure, affect coastal erosion, and release permafrost organic matter. Thawing is usually modeled as the result of heat transfer, although salt diffusion may play an important role in marine settings. To better quantify nearshore subsea permafrost thawing, we applied the CryoGRID2 heat diffusion model and coupled it to a salt diffusion model. We simulated coastline retreat and subsea permafrost evolution as it develops through successive stages of a thawing sequence at the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Sensitivity analyses for seawater salinity were performed to compare the results for the Bykovsky Peninsula with those of typical Arctic seawater. For the Bykovsky Peninsula, the modeled ice‐bearing permafrost table (IBPT) for ice‐rich sand and an erosion rate of 0.25 m/year was 16.7 m below the seabed 350 m offshore. The model outputs were compared to the IBPT depth estimated from coastline retreat and electrical resistivity surveys perpendicular to and crossing the shoreline of the Bykovsky Peninsula. The interpreted geoelectric data suggest that the IBPT dipped to 15–20 m below the seabed at 350 m offshore. Both results suggest that cold saline water forms beneath grounded ice and floating sea ice in shallow water, causing cryotic benthic temperatures. The freezing point depression produced by salt diffusion can delay or prevent ice formation in the sediment and enhance the IBPT degradation rate. Therefore, salt diffusion may facilitate the release of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere and considerably affect the design of offshore and coastal infrastructure in subsea permafrost areas.

Thermokarst lagoons represent the transition state from a freshwater lacustrine to a marine environment, and receive little attention regarding their role for greenhouse gas production and release in Arctic permafrost landscapes. We studied the fate of methane (CH₄) in sediments of a thermokarst lagoon in comparison to two thermokarst lakes on the Bykovsky Peninsula in northeastern Siberia through the analysis of sediment CH₄ concentrations and isotopic signature, methane‐cycling microbial taxa, sediment geochemistry, lipid biomarkers, and network analysis. We assessed how differences in geochemistry between thermokarst lakes and thermokarst lagoons, caused by the infiltration of sulfate‐rich marine water, altered the microbial methane‐cycling community. Anaerobic sulfate‐reducing ANME‐2a/2b methanotrophs dominated the sulfate‐rich sediments of the lagoon despite its known seasonal alternation between brackish and freshwater inflow and low sulfate concentrations compared to the usual marine ANME habitat. Non‐competitive methylotrophic methanogens dominated the methanogenic community of the lakes and the lagoon, independent of differences in porewater chemistry and depth. This potentially contributed to the high CH₄ concentrations observed in all sulfate‐poor sediments. CH₄ concentrations in the freshwater‐influenced sediments averaged 1.34 ± 0.98 μmol g⁻¹, with highly depleted δ¹³C‐CH₄ values ranging from −89‰ to −70‰. In contrast, the sulfate‐affected upper 300 cm of the lagoon exhibited low average CH₄ concentrations of 0.011 ± 0.005 μmol g⁻¹ with comparatively enriched δ¹³C‐CH₄ values of −54‰ to −37‰ pointing to substantial methane oxidation. Our study shows that lagoon formation specifically supports methane oxidizers and methane oxidation through changes in pore water chemistry, especially sulfate, while methanogens are similar to lake conditions.

The decomposition of thawing permafrost organic matter (OM) to the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane forms a positive feedback to global climate change. Data on in situ GHG fluxes from thawing permafrost OM are scarce and OM degradability is largely unknown, causing high uncertainties in the permafrost‐carbon climate feedback. We combined in situ CO₂ and methane flux measurements at an abrupt permafrost thaw feature with laboratory incubations and dynamic modeling to quantify annual CO₂ release from thawing permafrost OM, estimate its in situ degradability and evaluate the explanatory power of incubation experiments. In July 2016 and 2019, CO₂ fluxes ranged between 0.24 and 2.6 g CO₂‐C m⁻² d⁻¹. Methane fluxes were low, which coincided with the absence of active methanogens in the Pleistocene permafrost. CO₂ fluxes were lower three years after initial thaw after normalizing these fluxes to thawed carbon, indicating the depletion of labile carbon. Higher CO₂ fluxes from thawing Pleistocene permafrost than from Holocene permafrost indicate OM preservation for millennia and give evidence that microbial activity in the permafrost was not substantial. Short‐term incubations overestimated in situ CO₂ fluxes but underestimated methane fluxes. Two independent models simulated median annual CO₂ fluxes of 160 and 184 g CO₂‐C m⁻² from the thaw slump, which include 25%–31% CO₂ emissions during winter. Annual CO₂ fluxes represent 0.8% of the carbon pool thawed in the surface soil. Our results demonstrate the potential of abrupt thaw processes to transform the tundra from carbon neutral into a substantial GHG source.