Mikhail Dobrynin

Dr. Mikhail Dobrynin


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

19Years (2008-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

View All Publications
5 July 2019 in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
NMNicola Maher
Nicola Maher
SMSebastian Milinski
Sebastian Milinski
LSLaura Suarez-Gutierrez
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez
MBMichael Botzet
Michael Botzet
MDMikhail Dobrynin
Mikhail Dobrynin
JMJochem Marotzke
Jochem Marotzke
The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for the historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It is currently the only large ensemble available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and a 1% CO2 scenario. These advantages make MPI‐GE a powerful tool. We present an overview of MPI‐GE, its components, and detail the experiments completed. We demonstrate how to separate the forced response from internal variability in a large ensemble. This separation allows the quantification of both the forced signal under climate change and the internal variability to unprecedented precision. We then demonstrate multiple ways to evaluate MPI‐GE and put observations in the context of a large ensemble, including a novel approach for comparing model internal variability with estimated observed variability. Finally, we present four novel analyses, which can only be completed using a large ensemble. First, we address whether temperature and precipitation have a pathway dependence using the forcing scenarios. Second, the forced signal of the highly noisy atmospheric circulation is computed, and different drivers are identified to be important for the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Third, we use the ensemble dimension to investigate the time dependency of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability changes under global warming. Last, sea level pressure is used as an example to demonstrate how MPI‐GE can be utilized to estimate the ensemble size needed for a given scientific problem and provide insights for future ensemble projects.

19 August 2019 in Nature Climate Change
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
PDF file
JMJoao Morim
Joao Morim
MHMark Hemer
Mark Hemer
XWXiaolan L. Wang
Xiaolan L. Wang
Nick CartwrightNick Cartwright
Nick Cartwright
CTClaire Trenham
Claire Trenham
FAFernando Andutta
Fernando Andutta

14 February 2022 in Nature Climate Change
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
DNDavid Marcolino Nielsen
David Marcolino Nielsen
PPPatrick Pieper
Patrick Pieper
ABArmineh Barkhordarian
Armineh Barkhordarian
POPaul Overduin
Paul Overduin
TITatiana Ilyina
Tatiana Ilyina
MDMikhail Dobrynin
Mikhail Dobrynin
Arctic coastal erosion damages infrastructure, threatens coastal communities and releases organic carbon from permafrost. However, the magnitude, timing and sensitivity of coastal erosion increase to global warming remain unknown. Here we project the Arctic-mean erosion rate to increase and very likely exceed its historical range of variability before the end of the century in a wide range of emission scenarios. The sensitivity of erosion to warming roughly doubles, reaching 0.4–0.8 m yr−1 °C−1 and 2.3–4.2 TgC yr−1 °C−1 by the end of the century. We develop a simplified semi-empirical model to produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic coastal erosion rate projections. Our results will inform policymakers on coastal conservation and socioeconomic planning, and organic carbon flux projections lay out the path for future work to investigate the impact of Arctic coastal erosion on the changing Arctic Ocean, its role as a global carbon sink, and the permafrost–carbon feedback.

22 September 2012 in Geophysical Research Letters
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
PDF file
MDMikhail Dobrynin
Mikhail Dobrynin
JMJ. Murawsky
J. Murawsky
SYS. Yang
S. Yang

16 March 2018 in Geoscientific Model Development
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
NBNeal Butchart
Neal Butchart
JAJames A. Anstey
James A. Anstey
KHKevin Hamilton
Kevin Hamilton
Scott OspreyScott Osprey
Scott Osprey
CMCharles McLandress
Charles McLandress
SYSeiji Yukimoto
Seiji Yukimoto
The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) aims to improve the fidelity of tropical stratospheric variability in general circulation and Earth system models by conducting coordinated numerical experiments and analysis. In the equatorial stratosphere, the QBO is the most conspicuous mode of variability. Five coordinated experiments have therefore been designed to (i) evaluate and compare the verisimilitude of modelled QBOs under present-day conditions, (ii) identify robustness (or alternatively the spread and uncertainty) in the simulated QBO response to commonly imposed changes in model climate forcings (e.g. a doubling of CO2 amounts), and (iii) examine model dependence of QBO predictability. This paper documents these experiments and the recommended output diagnostics. The rationale behind the experimental design and choice of diagnostics is presented. To facilitate scientific interpretation of the results in other planned QBOi studies, consistent descriptions of the models performing each experiment set are given, with those aspects particularly relevant for simulating the QBO tabulated for easy comparison.

1 July 2016 in Remote Sensing of Environment
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
LKLars Kaleschke
Lars Kaleschke
XTXiangshan Tian-Kunze
Xiangshan Tian-Kunze
NMNina Maaß
Nina Maaß
ABAlexander Beitsch
Alexander Beitsch
AWAndreas Wernecke
Andreas Wernecke
TCTânia Casal
Tânia Casal