Fire is an important natural disturbance and a driver of hemi-boreal forest successional trajectories, structural complexity, and biodiversity. Understanding the historic fire regime is an important step towards sustainable forest management. Focusing on Lithuania’s hemi-boreal forests, we first mapped the potential natural fire regimes based on the relationship between site conditions, vegetation, and fire frequency using the ASIO model. The ASIO model revealed that all the fire frequency categories (Absent, Seldom, Intermittent, Often) are found in Lithuania. Scots pine forests dominated the often fire frequency category (92%). Secondly, focusing on a fire-prone forest landscape, Dzūkija, we analyzed the fire occurrence of Scots pine forest types using dendrochronological records. We sampled and cross-dated 132 Scots pine samples with fire scars from four dry forest stands (n = 92) and four peatland forest stands (n = 40), respectively. In total, the fire history analysis revealed 455 fire scars and 213 fire events during the period of 1742–2019. The Weibull median fire intervals were 2.7 years (range 1–34) for the dry forest types and 6.3 years (range 1–27) for the peatland forest types. Analysis pre- and post-1950 showed the Weibull median fire interval increased from 2.2 to 7.2 for the dry forest types but decreased from 6.2 to 5.2. for the peatland forest types. A superposed epoch analysis revealed significant precipitation fluxes prior to the fire events after 1950. Thus, the Dzūkija landscape of Lithuania has been strongly shaped by both human and naturally induced fires. The combination of theory (the ASIO model) with the examination of biological archives can be used to help guide sustainable forest management to emulate forest disturbances related to fire. As traditional forest management focusing on wood production has eliminated fire, and effectively simplified forest ecosystems, we recommend introducing educational programs to communicate the benefits and history of forest fires as well as adaptive management trials that use low-intensity prescribed burning of Scots pine stands.

Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.

Although common juniper (Juniperus communis L.) is a widely spread species and important for the forest biodiversity and economy in many European countries, it remains one of the least studied coniferous species. This research is the first attempt to evaluate the factors affecting the increment of Juniperus communis in Lithuanian populations. The aim of this article is to evaluate the patterns of radial increment in Juniperus communis and to identify the key factors influencing the increment. We collected stem discs from 160 junipers in 8 stands distributed in the different regions of Lithuania and performed the tree-ring analysis. All studied junipers expressed a pronounced eccentricity of the stem. The results of our study revealed four patterns of Juniperus communis’ radial increment, which are strongly dependent on the granulometric properties of the soil and hydrologic conditions. The effect of climatic conditions on the Juniperus communis increment was strongly dependent on the terrain; however, most of the junipers had a positive reaction to the temperatures in April, July, and August and to the precipitation in February.

This study explores Lithuania’s National Agreement on Forests (NAF) as a potential framework for better forest governance, focusing on its alignment with the principles set by the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe (MCPFE). Through document analysis, stakeholder interviews, and power analysis, we assess how well the NAF fosters inclusiveness, inter-sectoral collaboration, long-term commitment, and capacity building. Our findings reveal that while the NAF has made notable progress in improving stakeholder participation, challenges persist in integrating different sectors and addressing conflicts between economic and ecological priorities. Overall, the study concludes that the NAF is a step forward toward a National Forest Programme, though it needs further refinement to achieve long-term sustainability and policy coherence.