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Primary forests, defined here as forests where the signs of human impacts, if any, are strongly blurred due to decades without forest management, are scarce in Europe and continue to disappear. Despite these losses, we know little about where these forests occur. Here, we present a comprehensive geodatabase and map of Europe’s known primary forests. Our geodatabase harmonizes 48 different, mostly field-based datasets of primary forests, and contains 18,411 individual patches (41.1 Mha) spread across 33 countries. When available, we provide information on each patch (name, location, naturalness, extent and dominant tree species) and the surrounding landscape (biogeographical regions, protection status, potential natural vegetation, current forest extent). Using Landsat satellite-image time series (1985–2018) we checked each patch for possible disturbance events since primary forests were identified, resulting in 94% of patches free of significant disturbances in the last 30 years. Although knowledge gaps remain, ours is the most comprehensive dataset on primary forests in Europe, and will be useful for ecological studies, and conservation planning to safeguard these unique forests.
Francesco Maria Sabatini; Hendrik Bluhm; Zoltan Kun; Dmitry Aksenov; José A. Atauri; Erik Buchwald; Sabina Burrascano; Eugénie Cateau; Abdulla Diku; Inês Marques Duarte; Ángel B. Fernández López; Matteo Garbarino; Nikolaos Grigoriadis; Ferenc Horváth; Srđan Keren; Mara Kitenberga; Alen Kiš; Ann Kraut; Pierre L. Ibisch; Laurent Larrieu; Fabio Lombardi; Bratislav Matovic; Radu Nicolae Melu; Peter Meyer; Rein Midteng; Stjepan Mikac; Martin Mikoláš; Gintautas Mozgeris; Momchil Panayotov; Rok Pisek; Leónia Nunes; Alejandro Ruete; Matthias Schickhofer; Bojan Simovski; Jonas Stillhard; Dejan Stojanovic; Jerzy Szwagrzyk; Olli-Pekka Tikkanen; Elvin Toromani; Roman Volosyanchuk; Tomáš Vrška; Marcus Waldherr; Maxim Yermokhin; Tzvetan Zlatanov; Asiya Zagidullina; Tobias Kuemmerle. European primary forest database v2.0. Scientific Data 2021, 8, 1 -14.
AMA StyleFrancesco Maria Sabatini, Hendrik Bluhm, Zoltan Kun, Dmitry Aksenov, José A. Atauri, Erik Buchwald, Sabina Burrascano, Eugénie Cateau, Abdulla Diku, Inês Marques Duarte, Ángel B. Fernández López, Matteo Garbarino, Nikolaos Grigoriadis, Ferenc Horváth, Srđan Keren, Mara Kitenberga, Alen Kiš, Ann Kraut, Pierre L. Ibisch, Laurent Larrieu, Fabio Lombardi, Bratislav Matovic, Radu Nicolae Melu, Peter Meyer, Rein Midteng, Stjepan Mikac, Martin Mikoláš, Gintautas Mozgeris, Momchil Panayotov, Rok Pisek, Leónia Nunes, Alejandro Ruete, Matthias Schickhofer, Bojan Simovski, Jonas Stillhard, Dejan Stojanovic, Jerzy Szwagrzyk, Olli-Pekka Tikkanen, Elvin Toromani, Roman Volosyanchuk, Tomáš Vrška, Marcus Waldherr, Maxim Yermokhin, Tzvetan Zlatanov, Asiya Zagidullina, Tobias Kuemmerle. European primary forest database v2.0. Scientific Data. 2021; 8 (1):1-14.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFrancesco Maria Sabatini; Hendrik Bluhm; Zoltan Kun; Dmitry Aksenov; José A. Atauri; Erik Buchwald; Sabina Burrascano; Eugénie Cateau; Abdulla Diku; Inês Marques Duarte; Ángel B. Fernández López; Matteo Garbarino; Nikolaos Grigoriadis; Ferenc Horváth; Srđan Keren; Mara Kitenberga; Alen Kiš; Ann Kraut; Pierre L. Ibisch; Laurent Larrieu; Fabio Lombardi; Bratislav Matovic; Radu Nicolae Melu; Peter Meyer; Rein Midteng; Stjepan Mikac; Martin Mikoláš; Gintautas Mozgeris; Momchil Panayotov; Rok Pisek; Leónia Nunes; Alejandro Ruete; Matthias Schickhofer; Bojan Simovski; Jonas Stillhard; Dejan Stojanovic; Jerzy Szwagrzyk; Olli-Pekka Tikkanen; Elvin Toromani; Roman Volosyanchuk; Tomáš Vrška; Marcus Waldherr; Maxim Yermokhin; Tzvetan Zlatanov; Asiya Zagidullina; Tobias Kuemmerle. 2021. "European primary forest database v2.0." Scientific Data 8, no. 1: 1-14.
The spatially explicit assessment of land use and land-use change patterns can identify critical areas and provide insights to improve land management policies and associated decisions. This study mapped the land uses and land-use changes in Lithuanian municipalities since 1971. Additionally, an analysis was conducted of three shorter periods, corresponding to major national land-use policy epochs. Data on land uses, available from the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected on an annual basis with the primary objective of conducting greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting and reporting for the land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sectors, were explored. The overall trend in Lithuania during the last five decades has been an increase in the area of forest and built-up land and decrease in the area of producing land, meadow/pasture, wetlands, and other land uses. Nevertheless, the development trends for the proportions of producing land and meadow/pasture changed trajectories several times, and the breakpoints were linked with important dates in Lithuanian history and associated with the reorganization of land management and land-use relations. Global Moran’s I statistic and Anselin Local Moran’s I were used to check for global and local patterns in the distribution of land use in Lithuanian municipalities. The proportions of producing land and pasture/meadow remained spatially autocorrelated during the whole period analysed. Local spatial clusters and outliers were identified for all land-use types used in GHG inventories in the LULUCF sector at all the time points analysed. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was used to explain the land-use change trends during several historical periods due to differing land management policies, utilizing data from freely available databases as the regressors. The percentage of variance explained by the models ranged from 37 to 65, depending on the land-use type and the period in question.
Daiva Juknelienė; Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė; Jolanta Valčiukienė; Virginija Atkocevičienė; Gintautas Mozgeris. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land-Use Changes in Lithuania. Land 2021, 10, 619 .
AMA StyleDaiva Juknelienė, Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė, Jolanta Valčiukienė, Virginija Atkocevičienė, Gintautas Mozgeris. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land-Use Changes in Lithuania. Land. 2021; 10 (6):619.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDaiva Juknelienė; Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė; Jolanta Valčiukienė; Virginija Atkocevičienė; Gintautas Mozgeris. 2021. "Spatiotemporal Patterns of Land-Use Changes in Lithuania." Land 10, no. 6: 619.
Effective management decisions regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be hampered by the lack of scientific tools for modeling future land use change. This study addresses methodological principles for land use development scenario modeling assumed for use in processes of GHG accounting and management. Associated land use policy implications in Lithuania are also discussed. Data on land uses, available from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected for GHG accounting from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in the country, as well as freely available geographic information, were tested as an input for modeling land use development in the country. The modeling was implemented using the TerrSet Land Change Modeler. Calibration of the modeling approach using historical land use data indicated that land use types important for GHG management in the LULUCF sector were predicted with an accuracy above 80% during a five-year period into the future, while the prediction accuracy for forest and built-up land was 96% or more. Based on several land management scenarios tested, it was predicted that the LULUCF sector in Lithuania will accumulate CO2, with the forest land use type contributing most to CO2 absorption. Key measures to improve the GHG balance and carbon stock changes were suggested to be the afforestation of abandoned or unused agricultural land and prevention of the conversion of grassland into producing land.
Gintautas Mozgeris; Daiva Juknelienė. Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case. Land 2021, 10, 360 .
AMA StyleGintautas Mozgeris, Daiva Juknelienė. Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case. Land. 2021; 10 (4):360.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGintautas Mozgeris; Daiva Juknelienė. 2021. "Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case." Land 10, no. 4: 360.
Lithuanian forestry has long been shaped by the classical normal forest theory, aiming for even long-term flow of timber, and the aspiration to preserve domestic forest resources, leading to very conservative forest management. With radically changing forest management conditions, climate change mitigation efforts suggest increasing timber demands in the future. The main research question asked in this study addresses whether current forest management principles in Lithuania can secure non-decreasing long-term flow of timber and carbon accumulation. The development of national forest resources and forestry was simulated for the next century using the Kupolis decision support system and assuming that current forest management is continued under the condition of three scenarios, differing by climate change mitigation efforts. Potential development trends of key forest attributes were analysed and compared with projected carbon stock changes over time, incorporating major forest carbon pools—biomass, harvested wood products and emission savings due to energy and product substitution. The key finding was that the total carbon balance should remain positive in Lithuania during the next one hundred years; however, it might start to decrease after several decades, with steadily increasing harvesting and a reduced increase of forest productivity. Additionally, incorporating the harvested wood and CO2 emissions savings in carbon balance evaluations is essential.
Gintautas Mozgeris; Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė; Daiva Juknelienė. Does Aiming for Long-Term Non-Decreasing Flow of Timber Secure Carbon Accumulation: A Lithuanian Forestry Case. Sustainability 2021, 13, 2778 .
AMA StyleGintautas Mozgeris, Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė, Daiva Juknelienė. Does Aiming for Long-Term Non-Decreasing Flow of Timber Secure Carbon Accumulation: A Lithuanian Forestry Case. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (5):2778.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGintautas Mozgeris; Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė; Daiva Juknelienė. 2021. "Does Aiming for Long-Term Non-Decreasing Flow of Timber Secure Carbon Accumulation: A Lithuanian Forestry Case." Sustainability 13, no. 5: 2778.
Intensified forestry can be seen as a solution to climate change mitigation and securing energy supply, increasing the production of forest bioenergy feedstock as a substitution for fossil fuels. However, it may come with detrimental impacts on forest biodiversity, especially related to older forests. The aim of this study was to assess the sustainability of intensified forestry from climate-energy and biodiversity perspectives, targeting forest bird species. For this purpose, we applied the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool to the study area of Lithuania, having high ambitions for renewables and high forest biodiversity. With LEcA, we simulated forest growth and management for 100 years with two forest management strategies: Business As Usual (BAU) and Intensive forestry (INT), the latter with the purpose to fulfil renewable energy goals. With both strategies, the biomass yields increased well above the yields of the reference year, while the biodiversity indicators related to forest bird habitat to different degrees show the opposite, with lower levels than for the reference year. Furthermore, Strategy INT resulted in small-to-no benefits in the long run concerning potential biomass harvesting, while substantially affecting the biodiversity indicators negatively. The model results have the potential to inform policy and forest management planning concerning several sustainability goals simultaneously.
Ulla Mörtberg; Xi-Lillian Pang; Rimgaudas Treinys; Renats Trubins; Gintautas Mozgeris. Sustainability Assessment of Intensified Forestry—Forest Bioenergy versus Forest Biodiversity Targeting Forest Birds. Sustainability 2021, 13, 2789 .
AMA StyleUlla Mörtberg, Xi-Lillian Pang, Rimgaudas Treinys, Renats Trubins, Gintautas Mozgeris. Sustainability Assessment of Intensified Forestry—Forest Bioenergy versus Forest Biodiversity Targeting Forest Birds. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (5):2789.
Chicago/Turabian StyleUlla Mörtberg; Xi-Lillian Pang; Rimgaudas Treinys; Renats Trubins; Gintautas Mozgeris. 2021. "Sustainability Assessment of Intensified Forestry—Forest Bioenergy versus Forest Biodiversity Targeting Forest Birds." Sustainability 13, no. 5: 2789.
The pre‐requisite for sustainable management of natural resources is the availability of timely, cost‐effective, and comprehensive information on the status and development trends of the management object
Gintautas Mozgeris; Ivan Balenović. Operationalization of Remote Sensing Solutions for Sustainable Forest Management. Remote Sensing 2021, 13, 572 .
AMA StyleGintautas Mozgeris, Ivan Balenović. Operationalization of Remote Sensing Solutions for Sustainable Forest Management. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13 (4):572.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGintautas Mozgeris; Ivan Balenović. 2021. "Operationalization of Remote Sensing Solutions for Sustainable Forest Management." Remote Sensing 13, no. 4: 572.
Within forest governance research, the transfer of power from governmental actors to civil society and market actors has been subject to intense scientific debate. We move forward on this debate by analyzing how ongoing transformations and power shifts in forest governance affect the power relations of actors with interest in various ecosystem services (ESs) in nine countries (Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Portugal, Slovakia, Sweden, the Netherlands, Turkey). In order to examine power resources of actors, we triangulated 220 qualitative interviews, document analysis, and participatory observations. Governmental actors (with various interests in ESs) were the most powerful actors in most countries, and thus drove forest management. Our analysis shows that the power relations of actors with interest in different forest ESs, varied within the nine countries, though many similarities existed. Governmental, market, and civil society actors differed in their capacity to apply the power strategies “coercion”, “(dis)incentives”, and “dominant information”, to realize their interests in ESs. In Lithuania, Slovakia and Turkey, governmental actors relied mostly on coercion; in the Netherlands on incentives; and in Sweden on dominant information. In Germany, Ireland, Italy and Portugal governmental actors relied on a mix of coercion, incentives, and dominant information. Market actors in all countries relied mostly on incentives, and civil society actors on dominant information as their power strategy.
Nataly Juerges; Bas Arts; Mauro Masiero; Emin Z. Başkent; José G. Borges; Yvonne Brodrechtova; Vilis Brukas; Maria João Canadas; Pedro Ochôa Carvalho; Giulia Corradini; Edwin Corrigan; Adam Felton; Marjanke Hoogstra-Klein; Max Krott; Jim van Laar; Isak Lodin; Anders Lundholm; Ekaterina Makrickienė; Marlene Marques; Américo Mendes; Gintautas Mozgeris; Ana Novais; Davide Pettenella; Nerijus Pivoriūnas. Integrating ecosystem services in power analysis in forest governance: A comparison across nine European countries. Forest Policy and Economics 2020, 121, 102317 .
AMA StyleNataly Juerges, Bas Arts, Mauro Masiero, Emin Z. Başkent, José G. Borges, Yvonne Brodrechtova, Vilis Brukas, Maria João Canadas, Pedro Ochôa Carvalho, Giulia Corradini, Edwin Corrigan, Adam Felton, Marjanke Hoogstra-Klein, Max Krott, Jim van Laar, Isak Lodin, Anders Lundholm, Ekaterina Makrickienė, Marlene Marques, Américo Mendes, Gintautas Mozgeris, Ana Novais, Davide Pettenella, Nerijus Pivoriūnas. Integrating ecosystem services in power analysis in forest governance: A comparison across nine European countries. Forest Policy and Economics. 2020; 121 ():102317.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNataly Juerges; Bas Arts; Mauro Masiero; Emin Z. Başkent; José G. Borges; Yvonne Brodrechtova; Vilis Brukas; Maria João Canadas; Pedro Ochôa Carvalho; Giulia Corradini; Edwin Corrigan; Adam Felton; Marjanke Hoogstra-Klein; Max Krott; Jim van Laar; Isak Lodin; Anders Lundholm; Ekaterina Makrickienė; Marlene Marques; Américo Mendes; Gintautas Mozgeris; Ana Novais; Davide Pettenella; Nerijus Pivoriūnas. 2020. "Integrating ecosystem services in power analysis in forest governance: A comparison across nine European countries." Forest Policy and Economics 121, no. : 102317.
Europe's forests provide vital habitat for biodiversity and essential ecosystem services whose provision must be sustained or enhanced over the coming century. However, the potential to secure or increase forest ecosystem services, while securing the habitat requirements of taxa remains unclear, especially within the context of uncertain climate and socio-economic developments. To tease out the associated trade-offs and synergies, we used 10 case study landscapes within nine countries throughout Europe. Starting with the current status of the forests in the case study landscapes, we simulated forest development 100 years into the future. Simulations were embedded in three combined climate and socio-economic frame scenarios based on global and European policies which varied in their climate change mitigation efficiency. Scenarios were translated into country specific projections of climate variables, and resultant demands for wood products. Forest management regimes were projected to vary in response to these scenarios at local scales. The specific combinations of alternative forest management practices were based on parallel research and input from local forest stakeholders. For each case study, a specific forest growth simulator was used. In general, the climate scenarios applied did not cause fundamentally different ecosystem service outputs at the case study level. Our results revealed almost no reduction in outcomes for biodiversity indicators with an increase in wood production, and in some cases synergistic results occurred when diversity was actively promoted as part of the management concept. Net carbon uptake was not strongly correlated with biodiversity, indicating that biodiversity-friendly forest management doesn't need to curtail carbon sequestration. Notably, we obtained heterogeneous results for the relation between sustainable wood production and net carbon uptake. Most scenarios resulted in a more or less reduced net carbon uptake over the long term, often due to stand age class distribution shifts. Levels of sustainable wood production varied widely during the simulation period, from significant increases (Sweden, Lithuania) to minor changes (Slovakia, Turkey) and slight decreases (Ireland, Netherlands). We place our results within the larger context of European forest policy and the challenges of simulating and contrasting forest biodiversity and the ecosystem services that societies depend on.
Peter Biber; Adam Felton; Maarten Nieuwenhuis; Matts Lindbladh; Kevin Black; Ján Bahýl'; Özkan Bingöl; José G. Borges; Brigite Botequim; Vilis Brukas; Miguel N. Bugalho; Giulia Corradini; Ljusk Ola Eriksson; Nicklas Forsell; Geerten M. Hengeveld; Marjanke A. Hoogstra-Klein; Ali Ihsan Kadıoǧulları; Uzay Karahalil; Isak Lodin; Anders Lundholm; Ekaterina Makrickienė; Mauro Masiero; Gintautas Mozgeris; Nerijus Pivoriūnas; Werner Poschenrieder; Hans Pretzsch; Róbert Sedmák; Ján Tuček. Forest Biodiversity, Carbon Sequestration, and Wood Production: Modeling Synergies and Trade-Offs for Ten Forest Landscapes Across Europe. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 2020, 8, 1 .
AMA StylePeter Biber, Adam Felton, Maarten Nieuwenhuis, Matts Lindbladh, Kevin Black, Ján Bahýl', Özkan Bingöl, José G. Borges, Brigite Botequim, Vilis Brukas, Miguel N. Bugalho, Giulia Corradini, Ljusk Ola Eriksson, Nicklas Forsell, Geerten M. Hengeveld, Marjanke A. Hoogstra-Klein, Ali Ihsan Kadıoǧulları, Uzay Karahalil, Isak Lodin, Anders Lundholm, Ekaterina Makrickienė, Mauro Masiero, Gintautas Mozgeris, Nerijus Pivoriūnas, Werner Poschenrieder, Hans Pretzsch, Róbert Sedmák, Ján Tuček. Forest Biodiversity, Carbon Sequestration, and Wood Production: Modeling Synergies and Trade-Offs for Ten Forest Landscapes Across Europe. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. 2020; 8 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Biber; Adam Felton; Maarten Nieuwenhuis; Matts Lindbladh; Kevin Black; Ján Bahýl'; Özkan Bingöl; José G. Borges; Brigite Botequim; Vilis Brukas; Miguel N. Bugalho; Giulia Corradini; Ljusk Ola Eriksson; Nicklas Forsell; Geerten M. Hengeveld; Marjanke A. Hoogstra-Klein; Ali Ihsan Kadıoǧulları; Uzay Karahalil; Isak Lodin; Anders Lundholm; Ekaterina Makrickienė; Mauro Masiero; Gintautas Mozgeris; Nerijus Pivoriūnas; Werner Poschenrieder; Hans Pretzsch; Róbert Sedmák; Ján Tuček. 2020. "Forest Biodiversity, Carbon Sequestration, and Wood Production: Modeling Synergies and Trade-Offs for Ten Forest Landscapes Across Europe." Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 8, no. : 1.
In Lithuania, forests are managed by Lithuanian State Forest Enterprise, municipalities, ministries, etc. and private forest owners. About 50% of all forest land is State importance, privately owned forests cover 40% of forest land, and about 10% of forest land belongs to forests reserved for restitution. Forest management of private ownership force many challenges, because private forest owners are people, who have purchased or received the property after restitution, and often lacks knowledge about forest resources, its dynamics and sustainable forest management. As remote sensing is a valuable source for forest monitoring, because it provides periodic data on forest resource and condition status, these methods are gaining increased attention worldwide. In this context, more scientific efforts are made at developing remote sensing derived geo-spatial data services for sustainable forest management through a web service platform, which would integrate geo-information into daily decision making processes and operation for private forest owners. This article presents a review of privately owned forests’ statistics, questionnaire-based survey about GIS usage and demand for forest owners in Lithuania and links available sources of open geo-spatial data useful for sustainable forest management.
Daiva Tiškutė-Memgaudienė; Vytautas Magnus University; Gintautas Mozgeris; Algis Gaižutis; Vilnius University. Open geo-spatial data for sustainable forest management: Lithuanian case. Research for Rural Development 2020 : annual 26th International scientific conference proceedings 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleDaiva Tiškutė-Memgaudienė, Vytautas Magnus University, Gintautas Mozgeris, Algis Gaižutis, Vilnius University. Open geo-spatial data for sustainable forest management: Lithuanian case. Research for Rural Development 2020 : annual 26th International scientific conference proceedings. 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDaiva Tiškutė-Memgaudienė; Vytautas Magnus University; Gintautas Mozgeris; Algis Gaižutis; Vilnius University. 2020. "Open geo-spatial data for sustainable forest management: Lithuanian case." Research for Rural Development 2020 : annual 26th International scientific conference proceedings , no. : 1.
Aims Primary forests are critical for forest biodiversity and provide key ecosystem services. In Europe, these forests are particularly scarce and it is unclear whether they are sufficiently protected. Here we aim to: (a) understand whether extant primary forests are representative of the range of naturally occurring forest types, (b) identify forest types which host enough primary forest under strict protection to meet conservation targets and (c) highlight areas where restoration is needed and feasible. Location Europe. Methods We combined a unique geodatabase of primary forests with maps of forest cover, potential natural vegetation, biogeographic regions and protected areas to quantify the proportion of extant primary forest across Europe's forest types and to identify gaps in protection. Using spatial predictions of primary forest locations to account for underreporting of primary forests, we then highlighted areas where restoration could complement protection. Results We found a substantial bias in primary forest distribution across forest types. Of the 54 forest types we assessed, six had no primary forest at all, and in two‐thirds of forest types, less than 1% of forest was primary. Even if generally protected, only ten forest types had more than half of their primary forests strictly protected. Protecting all documented primary forests requires expanding the protected area networks by 1,132 km2 (19,194 km2 when including also predicted primary forests). Encouragingly, large areas of non‐primary forest existed inside protected areas for most types, thus presenting restoration opportunities. Main conclusion Europe's primary forests are in a perilous state, as also acknowledged by EU's “Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.” Yet, there are considerable opportunities for ensuring better protection and restoring primary forest structure, composition and functioning, at least partially. We advocate integrated policy reforms that explicitly account for the irreplaceable nature of primary forests and ramp up protection and restoration efforts alike.
Francesco M. Sabatini; William S. Keeton; Marcus Lindner; Miroslav Svoboda; Pieter J. Verkerk; Jürgen Bauhus; Helge Bruelheide; Sabina Burrascano; Nicolas Debaive; Inês Duarte; Matteo Garbarino; Nikolaos Grigoriadis; Fabio Lombardi; Martin Mikoláš; Peter Meyer; Renzo Motta; Gintautas Mozgeris; Leónia Nunes; Péter Ódor; Momchil Panayotov; Alejandro Ruete; Bojan Simovski; Jonas Stillhard; Johan Svensson; Jerzy Szwagrzyk; Olli‐Pekka Tikkanen; Kris Vandekerkhove; Roman Volosyanchuk; Tomas Vrska; Tzvetan Zlatanov; Tobias Kuemmerle. Protection gaps and restoration opportunities for primary forests in Europe. Diversity and Distributions 2020, 26, 1646 -1662.
AMA StyleFrancesco M. Sabatini, William S. Keeton, Marcus Lindner, Miroslav Svoboda, Pieter J. Verkerk, Jürgen Bauhus, Helge Bruelheide, Sabina Burrascano, Nicolas Debaive, Inês Duarte, Matteo Garbarino, Nikolaos Grigoriadis, Fabio Lombardi, Martin Mikoláš, Peter Meyer, Renzo Motta, Gintautas Mozgeris, Leónia Nunes, Péter Ódor, Momchil Panayotov, Alejandro Ruete, Bojan Simovski, Jonas Stillhard, Johan Svensson, Jerzy Szwagrzyk, Olli‐Pekka Tikkanen, Kris Vandekerkhove, Roman Volosyanchuk, Tomas Vrska, Tzvetan Zlatanov, Tobias Kuemmerle. Protection gaps and restoration opportunities for primary forests in Europe. Diversity and Distributions. 2020; 26 (12):1646-1662.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFrancesco M. Sabatini; William S. Keeton; Marcus Lindner; Miroslav Svoboda; Pieter J. Verkerk; Jürgen Bauhus; Helge Bruelheide; Sabina Burrascano; Nicolas Debaive; Inês Duarte; Matteo Garbarino; Nikolaos Grigoriadis; Fabio Lombardi; Martin Mikoláš; Peter Meyer; Renzo Motta; Gintautas Mozgeris; Leónia Nunes; Péter Ódor; Momchil Panayotov; Alejandro Ruete; Bojan Simovski; Jonas Stillhard; Johan Svensson; Jerzy Szwagrzyk; Olli‐Pekka Tikkanen; Kris Vandekerkhove; Roman Volosyanchuk; Tomas Vrska; Tzvetan Zlatanov; Tobias Kuemmerle. 2020. "Protection gaps and restoration opportunities for primary forests in Europe." Diversity and Distributions 26, no. 12: 1646-1662.
There are significant inter-annual fluctuations of growing stock volume changes of living trees estimated by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory (NFI). In the current study, we compared two sources of information on forest productivity: conventional NFI data and dendrochronological data based on tree cores collected in parallel with the measurements of the fourth Lithuanian NFI cycle during 2013–2017 on the same permanent plots (total number of cores was 4967). The main finding is that the dendrochronological basal area increment data confirmed the depression of gross stand volume increment around 2006–2007 (based on Lithuanian NFI measurements in 2008–2009), followed by a steep increase during 2008–2011 (NFI from 2010–2013). The findings explain the differences between projected growing stock volume change, which have been used for forest reference level estimation according to land use, land-use change and forestry sector regulation, and the one recently provided in National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports. Key words: Growing stock volume change, basal area increment, forest reference level, greenhouse gas reporting
Gintaras Kulbokas; Vaiva Jurevičienė; Andrius Kuliešis; Algirdas Augustaitis; Edmundas Petrauskas; Marius Mikalajūnas; Adomas Vitas; Gintautas Mozgeris. Fluctuations in gross volume increment estimated by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory compared with annual variations in single tree increment. BALTIC FORESTRY 2019, 25, 273 -280.
AMA StyleGintaras Kulbokas, Vaiva Jurevičienė, Andrius Kuliešis, Algirdas Augustaitis, Edmundas Petrauskas, Marius Mikalajūnas, Adomas Vitas, Gintautas Mozgeris. Fluctuations in gross volume increment estimated by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory compared with annual variations in single tree increment. BALTIC FORESTRY. 2019; 25 (2):273-280.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGintaras Kulbokas; Vaiva Jurevičienė; Andrius Kuliešis; Algirdas Augustaitis; Edmundas Petrauskas; Marius Mikalajūnas; Adomas Vitas; Gintautas Mozgeris. 2019. "Fluctuations in gross volume increment estimated by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory compared with annual variations in single tree increment." BALTIC FORESTRY 25, no. 2: 273-280.
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by trees in response to abiotic stress evoke high levels of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) compounds. Few techniques exist to provide chemically-resolved submicron (PM1) particle mass concentrations and source apportionment of stress-induced emissions from trees and SOA formation. The chemical composition of atmospheric aerosol particles was characterized using an aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM) at a mixed-mature forest site – the Aukštaitija Integrated Monitoring Station in the eastern part of Lithuania. The organic fraction of PM1 consisted of SOA (76%) and of anthropogenic combustion related primary organic aerosol (POA) (24%). The analysis of tree trunk circumference revealed three shrinkage and three normal increase episodes. During the episodes of tree trunk circumference shrinkage, several m/z signal (m/z 42, 43, 45, 48, 50) intensities were found to be magnified together with the daily SOA concentration. The stress response analysis confirm that tree trunk circumference shrinkage may be observed through the enhancement of selected m/z signals and result in increased SOA levels.
Julija Pauraitė; Steigvilė Byčenkienė; Kristina Plauškaitė; Algirdas Augustaitis; Vitas Marozas; Gintautas Mozgeris; Ainis Pivoras; Gintaras Pivoras; Vidmantas Ulevičius. Abiotic stress impact on aerosol mass spectra over a forest site in Lithuania. Lithuanian Journal of Physics 2019, 59, 1 .
AMA StyleJulija Pauraitė, Steigvilė Byčenkienė, Kristina Plauškaitė, Algirdas Augustaitis, Vitas Marozas, Gintautas Mozgeris, Ainis Pivoras, Gintaras Pivoras, Vidmantas Ulevičius. Abiotic stress impact on aerosol mass spectra over a forest site in Lithuania. Lithuanian Journal of Physics. 2019; 59 (3):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulija Pauraitė; Steigvilė Byčenkienė; Kristina Plauškaitė; Algirdas Augustaitis; Vitas Marozas; Gintautas Mozgeris; Ainis Pivoras; Gintaras Pivoras; Vidmantas Ulevičius. 2019. "Abiotic stress impact on aerosol mass spectra over a forest site in Lithuania." Lithuanian Journal of Physics 59, no. 3: 1.
As countries with a socialist history, Lithuania and Slovakia have experienced radical transitions in all societal spheres. Despite economic liberalization and privatisation, both countries retain centralized forest management systems. Our study suggests a new methodology for assessing to what extent forestry in a given country is steered by command-and-control as opposed to more adaptive forms of governance. Our ‘Critical Interpretive Analysis’ (CIA) differs in several important aspects from more positivist methods prevalent in recent comparative analyses of forest policies in (post)transitional countries. The analysis involves five criteria, four of which (Efficiency, Equity, Transparency and Participation) are established principles of good governance, and a fifth criterion (Adaptiveness) stemming from the concept of adaptive governance. We found that Lithuania and Slovakia perform best for Transparency, primarily due to extensive availability of information about forest resources. Performance on the other criteria is poor; many of the shortcomings stem from excessive regulation that curbs the decision freedom in all forests irrespective of their ownership or functional priorities. We conclude that forest governance still largely follows the command-and-control traditions in both countries.
Ekaterina Makrickiene; Vilis Brukas; Yvonne Brodrechtova; Gintautas Mozgeris; Róbert Sedmák; Jaroslav Šálka. From command-and-control to good forest governance: A critical interpretive analysis of Lithuania and Slovakia. Forest Policy and Economics 2019, 109, 102024 .
AMA StyleEkaterina Makrickiene, Vilis Brukas, Yvonne Brodrechtova, Gintautas Mozgeris, Róbert Sedmák, Jaroslav Šálka. From command-and-control to good forest governance: A critical interpretive analysis of Lithuania and Slovakia. Forest Policy and Economics. 2019; 109 ():102024.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEkaterina Makrickiene; Vilis Brukas; Yvonne Brodrechtova; Gintautas Mozgeris; Róbert Sedmák; Jaroslav Šálka. 2019. "From command-and-control to good forest governance: A critical interpretive analysis of Lithuania and Slovakia." Forest Policy and Economics 109, no. : 102024.
Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry.
Gintautas Mozgeris; Vilis Brukas; Nerijus Pivoriūnas; Gintautas Činga; Ekaterina Makrickienė; Steigvilė Byčenkienė; Vitas Marozas; Marius Mikalajūnas; Vadimas Dudoitis; Vidmantas Ulevičius; Algirdas Augustaitis. Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry. Forests 2019, 10, 809 .
AMA StyleGintautas Mozgeris, Vilis Brukas, Nerijus Pivoriūnas, Gintautas Činga, Ekaterina Makrickienė, Steigvilė Byčenkienė, Vitas Marozas, Marius Mikalajūnas, Vadimas Dudoitis, Vidmantas Ulevičius, Algirdas Augustaitis. Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry. Forests. 2019; 10 (9):809.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGintautas Mozgeris; Vilis Brukas; Nerijus Pivoriūnas; Gintautas Činga; Ekaterina Makrickienė; Steigvilė Byčenkienė; Vitas Marozas; Marius Mikalajūnas; Vadimas Dudoitis; Vidmantas Ulevičius; Algirdas Augustaitis. 2019. "Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry." Forests 10, no. 9: 809.
Sympatric species are likely to compete with one another unless there is a low degree of overlap in their resource use, in which case these species are able to coexist. Disclosing of biotic interactions between sympatric species is important from both theoretical and practical perspectives, especially when the species are of conservation concern. However, environmental heterogeneity may introduce variation in the intensity of biotic interactions due to differential a varying species responses to the environmental gradient. In this study, we analysed the overlap in nesting sites between the internationally protected, mature, forest-dwelling Lesser Spotted Eagle Clanga pomarina and the Black Stork Ciconia nigra. The importance of landscape heterogeneity for habitat segregation between these species was also assessed. The nesting sites of 123 pairs of Lesser Spotted Eagles and 78 pairs of Black Storks, located across different landscapes of the Central, Central-Eastern and Eastern Lithuanian ecoregions were described. A series of discriminant analyses were performed to explore the pattern of habitat differentiation between species nesting in the above-mentioned regions. The habitat differentiation was estimated by niche overlap values (range 0-1, with a value 0.6 suggested to be the threshold between coexistence and competition). Comparison of nesting sites of mature forest-dwellers resulted in the niche overlap values for Central, Central-Eastern and Eastern regions being 0.5, 0.63 and 0.55, respectively. These results indicated relatively high niche overdispersion between nesting sites occupied by eagles and storks. Different variables and/or their combinations resulted in habitat differences in each ecoregion. Our data indicate that biotic interaction between species is mediated by environmental heterogeneity. Although our data tend to support the coexistence of the Black Stork and the Lesser Spotted Eagle, in certain regions these mature, forest-dwelling predators may use similar habitats and compete for prime sites under specific landscape structures. We, therefore, propose the necessity of the importance of a spatially-segregated estimation on biotic interactions when developing conservation programmes and allocating conservation actions within the target region.
Saulis Skuja; Gintautas Mozgeris; Rimgaudas Treinys. May sympatric Lesser Spotted Eagles and Black Storks compete for nesting sites in spatially varying environments? BALTIC FORESTRY 2019, 25, 63 -68.
AMA StyleSaulis Skuja, Gintautas Mozgeris, Rimgaudas Treinys. May sympatric Lesser Spotted Eagles and Black Storks compete for nesting sites in spatially varying environments? BALTIC FORESTRY. 2019; 25 (1):63-68.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSaulis Skuja; Gintautas Mozgeris; Rimgaudas Treinys. 2019. "May sympatric Lesser Spotted Eagles and Black Storks compete for nesting sites in spatially varying environments?" BALTIC FORESTRY 25, no. 1: 63-68.
Forest planners in former Eastern Block countries tend to provide conservative forecasts of timber supply, based on a rigid area control under the legislated rotation ages, and often assuming uniform forest management behaviour irrespective of the owner type. This study, in contrast, explores timber supply in a multi-disciplinary approach that analyses contextual factors and expands the space of future forest management options. Methodological steps include: (i) participatory development of qualitative scenarios, following different trajectories of contextual factors affecting forest management; (ii) identification of forest management programmes at the stand level; and (iii) modelling and economic assessment of future flows of timber at the landscape level. This research is carried out in a case study area (CSA) in central Lithuania containing 37,000 ha of forest, of which 80% is under state ownership. The development of forest resources was simulated for four contextualised scenarios: Business as Usual, Efficiency and Reforms, Ecology, and Climate Change Mitigation. Six forest-management programs were constructed together with stakeholders to describe the behaviour of state forest managers and private forest owners under each scenario. All four scenarios led to increased timber supply, largely due to the high proportion of middle-aged and premature stands in current forests. Notably, the present-day approach of rigid area control prioritises a steady timber supply through an evener age-class structure but largely fails on the last point. Our scenario analysis shows that relaxation of legislative requirements not only leads to increased long-term contribution to economic welfare but also enables achievement of evener age-class distributions.
Gintautas Mozgeris; Marius Kavaliauskas; Vilis Brukas; Andrius Stanislovaitis. Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios. Forest Policy and Economics 2019, 103, 36 -44.
AMA StyleGintautas Mozgeris, Marius Kavaliauskas, Vilis Brukas, Andrius Stanislovaitis. Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios. Forest Policy and Economics. 2019; 103 ():36-44.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGintautas Mozgeris; Marius Kavaliauskas; Vilis Brukas; Andrius Stanislovaitis. 2019. "Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios." Forest Policy and Economics 103, no. : 36-44.
Demands on forest bioenergy feedstock are expected to increase in many countries due to climate change mitigation. However, sustainable use of forest biomass resources can be ensured only if local and landscape conditions are taken into account, linking energy use to its resource base. The aim of this study was to analyse the forest biomass potential for Lithuania's energy pathways, while comparing the projected demand of forest bioenergy feedstock with resource projections. This was performed using the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool and the energy model MESSAGE. Biomass demand can be met up to 2050, after which demands under a Biomass Low pathway can still be met by the domestic forest resource if other wood uses are reduced, while Biomass High leads to a biomass deficit regarding domestic forest resources. Information exchange between the energy model and the LEcA tool enables an integrated sustainability assessment, and may contribute to a sustainable and efficient use of forest as a bioenergy feedstock resource.
X. Pang; R. Trubins; V. Lekavicius; A. Galinis; G. Mozgeris; G. Kulbokas; U. Mörtberg. Forest bioenergy feedstock in Lithuania – Renewable energy goals and the use of forest resources. Energy Strategy Reviews 2019, 24, 244 -253.
AMA StyleX. Pang, R. Trubins, V. Lekavicius, A. Galinis, G. Mozgeris, G. Kulbokas, U. Mörtberg. Forest bioenergy feedstock in Lithuania – Renewable energy goals and the use of forest resources. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2019; 24 ():244-253.
Chicago/Turabian StyleX. Pang; R. Trubins; V. Lekavicius; A. Galinis; G. Mozgeris; G. Kulbokas; U. Mörtberg. 2019. "Forest bioenergy feedstock in Lithuania – Renewable energy goals and the use of forest resources." Energy Strategy Reviews 24, no. : 244-253.
The chemical composition of submicron aerosol particles was characterized using an aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM) at a mixed-mature forest site at the Aukštaitija Integrated Monitoring Station in the eastern part of Lithuania. Four organic aerosol (OA) factors were determined by positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis applied for the ACSM data: semi-volatile oxygenated OA (SVOOA, the contribution to the total OA mass concentration was 33%), low-volatile oxygenated OA (LVOOA, 39%), cooking related OA (COA, 15%) and biomass burning OA (BBOA, 13%). In our study secondary organic aerosol (SOA) has been identified as one of the most important contributors to the submicron particle (PM1) mass concentration. A comparison between SVOOA and submicron forest organic aerosol mass (SFOM) was performed, and a good correlation of 0.75 between them was found. In our study the SOA concentration dependence on temperature was explored in 3 means: firstly, by investigating aerosol mass spectra measured during hot and cold days. It has been found that during hot days events signal intensities of m/z 42, 43, 45, 53 and 59 were about 2.1–2.7 times higher compared to those during cold days. Secondly, by investigating the temperature dependence of SVOOA and estimated SFOM. It has been found that SFOM and SVOOA concentrations increase with temperature. Thirdly, by assessing the influence of temperature related stomatal conduction on SVOOA concentration: no direct influence on SVOOA concentration was observed.
Julija Pauraite; Ainis Pivoras; Kristina Plauškaitė; Steigvilė Byčenkienė; Genrik Mordas; Algirdas Augustaitis; Vitas Marozas; Gintautas Mozgeris; Manuela Baumgarten; Rainer Matyssek; Vidmantas Ulevicius. Characterization of aerosol mass spectra responses to temperature over a forest site in Lithuania. Journal of Aerosol Science 2019, 133, 56 -65.
AMA StyleJulija Pauraite, Ainis Pivoras, Kristina Plauškaitė, Steigvilė Byčenkienė, Genrik Mordas, Algirdas Augustaitis, Vitas Marozas, Gintautas Mozgeris, Manuela Baumgarten, Rainer Matyssek, Vidmantas Ulevicius. Characterization of aerosol mass spectra responses to temperature over a forest site in Lithuania. Journal of Aerosol Science. 2019; 133 ():56-65.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulija Pauraite; Ainis Pivoras; Kristina Plauškaitė; Steigvilė Byčenkienė; Genrik Mordas; Algirdas Augustaitis; Vitas Marozas; Gintautas Mozgeris; Manuela Baumgarten; Rainer Matyssek; Vidmantas Ulevicius. 2019. "Characterization of aerosol mass spectra responses to temperature over a forest site in Lithuania." Journal of Aerosol Science 133, no. : 56-65.
Sustainable forest management is driving the development of forest decision support systems (DSSs) to include models and methods concerned with climate change, biodiversity and various ecosystem services (ESs). The future development of forest landscapes is very much dependent on how forest owners act and what goes on in the wider world; thus, models are needed that incorporate these aspects. The objective of this study is to assess how nine European state-of-the-art forest DSSs cope with these issues. The assessment focuses on the ability of these DSSs to generate landscape-level scenarios to explore the output of current and alternative forest management models (FMMs) in terms of a range of ESs and the robustness of these FMMs in the face of increased risks and uncertainty. Results show that all DSSs assessed in this study can be used to quantify the impacts of both stand- and landscape-level FMMs on the provision of a range of ESs over a typical planning horizon. DSSs can be used to assess how timber price trends may impact that provision over time. The inclusion of forest owner behavior as reflected by the adoption of specific FMMs seems to be also in the reach of all DSSs. Nevertheless, some DSSs need more data and development of models to estimate the impacts of climate change on biomass production and other ESs. Spatial analysis functionality needs to be further developed for a more accurate assessment of the landscape-level output of ESs from both current and alternative FMMs.
Eva-Maria Nordström; Maarten Nieuwenhuis; Emin Zeki Başkent; Peter Biber; Kevin Black; Jose G. Borges; Miguel N. Bugalho; Giulia Corradini; Edwin Corrigan; Ljusk Ola Eriksson; Adam Felton; Nicklas Forsell; Geerten Hengeveld; Marjanke Hoogstra-Klein; Anu Korosuo; Matts Lindbladh; Isak Lodin; Anders Lundholm; Marco Marto; Mauro Masiero; Gintautas Mozgeris; Davide Pettenella; Werner Poschenrieder; Robert Sedmak; Jan Tucek; Davide Zoccatelli. Forest decision support systems for the analysis of ecosystem services provisioning at the landscape scale under global climate and market change scenarios. European Journal of Forest Research 2019, 138, 561 -581.
AMA StyleEva-Maria Nordström, Maarten Nieuwenhuis, Emin Zeki Başkent, Peter Biber, Kevin Black, Jose G. Borges, Miguel N. Bugalho, Giulia Corradini, Edwin Corrigan, Ljusk Ola Eriksson, Adam Felton, Nicklas Forsell, Geerten Hengeveld, Marjanke Hoogstra-Klein, Anu Korosuo, Matts Lindbladh, Isak Lodin, Anders Lundholm, Marco Marto, Mauro Masiero, Gintautas Mozgeris, Davide Pettenella, Werner Poschenrieder, Robert Sedmak, Jan Tucek, Davide Zoccatelli. Forest decision support systems for the analysis of ecosystem services provisioning at the landscape scale under global climate and market change scenarios. European Journal of Forest Research. 2019; 138 (4):561-581.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEva-Maria Nordström; Maarten Nieuwenhuis; Emin Zeki Başkent; Peter Biber; Kevin Black; Jose G. Borges; Miguel N. Bugalho; Giulia Corradini; Edwin Corrigan; Ljusk Ola Eriksson; Adam Felton; Nicklas Forsell; Geerten Hengeveld; Marjanke Hoogstra-Klein; Anu Korosuo; Matts Lindbladh; Isak Lodin; Anders Lundholm; Marco Marto; Mauro Masiero; Gintautas Mozgeris; Davide Pettenella; Werner Poschenrieder; Robert Sedmak; Jan Tucek; Davide Zoccatelli. 2019. "Forest decision support systems for the analysis of ecosystem services provisioning at the landscape scale under global climate and market change scenarios." European Journal of Forest Research 138, no. 4: 561-581.
Sébastien Gadal; Walid Ouerghemmi; Romain Barlatier; Gintautas Mozgeris. Critical Analysis of Urban Vegetation Mapping by Satellite Multispectral and Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Geographical Information Systems Theory, Applications and Management 2019, 97 -104.
AMA StyleSébastien Gadal, Walid Ouerghemmi, Romain Barlatier, Gintautas Mozgeris. Critical Analysis of Urban Vegetation Mapping by Satellite Multispectral and Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery. Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Geographical Information Systems Theory, Applications and Management. 2019; ():97-104.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSébastien Gadal; Walid Ouerghemmi; Romain Barlatier; Gintautas Mozgeris. 2019. "Critical Analysis of Urban Vegetation Mapping by Satellite Multispectral and Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery." Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Geographical Information Systems Theory, Applications and Management , no. : 97-104.