Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

While sustainable forestry in Europe is characterized by the provision of a multitude of forest ecosystem services, there exists no comprehensive study that scrutinizes their sensitivity to forest management on a pan-European scale, so far. We compile scenario runs from regionally tailored forest growth models and Decision Support Systems (DSS) from 20 case studies throughout Europe and analyze whether the ecosystem service provision depends on management intensity and other co-variables, comprising regional affiliation, social environment, and tree species composition. The simulation runs provide information about the case-specifically most important ecosystem services in terms of appropriate indicators. We found a strong positive correlation between management intensity and wood production, but only weak correlation with protective and socioeconomic forest functions. Interestingly, depending on the forest region, we found that biodiversity can react in both ways, positively and negatively, to increased management intensity. Thus, it may be in tradeoff or in synergy with wood production and forest resource maintenance. The covariables species composition and social environment are of punctual interest only, while the affiliation to a certain region often makes an important difference in terms of an ecosystem service’s treatment sensitivity.

Wildfires threaten and kill people, destroy urban and rural property, degrade air quality, ravage forest ecosystems, and contribute to global warming. Wildfire management decision support models are thus important for avoiding or mitigating the effects of these events. In this context, this paper aims at providing a review of recent applications of machine learning methods for wildfire management decision support. The emphasis is on providing a summary of these applications with a classification according to the case study type, machine learning method, case study location, and performance metrics. The review considers documents published in the last four years, using a sample of 135 documents (review articles and research articles). It is concluded that the adoption of machine learning methods may contribute to enhancing support in different fire management phases.

Yousefpour, R., C. Temperli, J. B. Jacobsen, B. J. Thorsen, H. Meilby, M. J. Lexer, M. Lindner, H. Bugmann, J. G. Borges, J. H. N. Palma, D. Ray, N. E. Zimmermann, S. Delzon, A. Kremer, K. Kramer, C. P. O. Reyer, P. Lasch-Born, J. Garcia-Gonzalo, and M. Hanewinkel. 2017. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change. Ecology and Society 22(4):40. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09614-220440

Forest ecosystem management often requires spatially explicit planning because the spatial arrangement of harvests has become a critical economic and environmental concern. Recent research on exact methods has addressed both the design and the solution of forest management problems with constraints on the clearcut size, but where simultaneously harvesting two adjacent stands in the same period does not necessarily exceed the maximum opening size. Two main integer programming approaches have been proposed for this area restriction model. However, both encompass an exponential number of variables or constraints. In this work, we present a new integer programming model with a polynomial number of variables and constraints. Branch and bound is used to solve it. The model was tested with both real and hypothetical forests ranging from 45 to 1,363 polygons. Results show that the proposed model's solutions were within or slightly above 1% of the optimal solution and were obtained in a short computation time.