Natural gas hydrates are a promising alternative energy source for oil and gas in the future. However, geomechanical issues, such as wellhead instability, may arise, affecting the safe and efficient development of hydrates. In the present work, a sensitivity analysis was performed on sediment subsidence and wellhead instability during the development of marine hydrates using a multi-field coupled model. This is accomplished by adjusting the corresponding parameters based on the basic data of the default case. Meanwhile, the corresponding influencing mechanisms were explored. Finally, design recommendations for operation parameters were proposed based on the research findings regarding wellhead stability. It was found that the wellhead undergoes rapid sinking during a certain period in the early stage of hydrate development, followed by a slower, continued sinking. The sensitivity analysis found that when the depressurization amplitude is small, the wellhead sinking is also minimal. To maintain wellhead stability during the development process, it is recommended that neither the depressurization amplitude or drawdown pressure exceed 3.0 MPa. Although a high heating temperature can increase gas production to some extent, the accompanying excessive hydrate dissociation may compromise the stability of both the formation and wellhead. To balance gas production and wellhead stability, it is recommended that the heating amplitude does not exceed 50 °C. In addition, the permeability influences the distribution of pore pressure, which in turn affects sediment subsidence and wellbore stability. Wellhead stability deteriorates as permeability increases. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately determine the reservoir characteristics (such as permeability) before developing hydrates to avoid wellhead instability. Finally, the investigation results reveal that using different versions of the investigation model can impact the accuracy of the results, and neglecting certain physical fields may lead to an underestimation of the wellhead sinking.

Introduction: Efficient geothermal energy extraction has the potential to significantly alleviate the shortage of fossil energy, but low extraction efficiency and an insufficiently understood extraction mechanism remain key bottlenecks hindering its large-scale deployment. Method: This study develops a fluid–solid coupled numerical model based on the intrinsic physical properties of geological reservoirs to systematically analyze the energy extraction characteristics of geothermal systems. Simultaneously, the effects of key geological factors on fluid flow behavior within geothermal reservoirs are investigated. Furthermore, molecular dynamics simulations are employed to elucidate the microscopic mechanisms by which driving fluids facilitate geothermal energy extraction. Results: The results demonstrate that the thermo-hydraulic–mechanical (THM) numerical model was validated through a comparison with benchmark data reported in previous studies, exhibiting a high degree of agreement with geothermal extraction performance. The model further confirms that heat transport in the geothermal reservoir is characterized by a pronounced “tongue-in” isotherm pattern during the extraction process. Discussion: Lower initial temperatures of the driving fluid lead to more rapid geothermal energy extraction compared with higher initial temperatures, and the “tongue-in” phenomenon becomes increasingly pronounced as the initial injection temperature decreases. Moreover, increased injection pressure significantly enhances geothermal energy extraction efficiency; however, reduced pressure differentials markedly suppress the development of the “tongue-in” pattern and decrease reservoir permeability. In addition, water used as a heat-driving fluid achieves higher thermal extraction efficiency than water, while simultaneously exerting a stronger moderating effect on the permeability evolution of geothermal reservoirs. Conclusions: The simulation results obtained from the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) numerical model provide fundamental data to support the efficient development of geothermal reservoirs, while the associated analyses offer valuable insights into the selection of appropriate driving fluids for reservoirs with distinct geological characteristics.