High-quality gridded soil moisture products are essential for many Earth system science applications, while the recent reanalysis and remote sensing soil moisture data are often available at coarse resolution and remote sensing data are only for the surface soil. Here, we present a 1 km resolution long-term dataset of soil moisture derived through machine learning trained by the in situ measurements of 1789 stations over China, named SMCI1.0 (Soil Moisture of China by in situ data, version 1.0). Random forest is used as a robust machine learning approach to predict soil moisture using ERA5-Land time series, leaf area index, land cover type, topography and soil properties as predictors. SMCI1.0 provides 10-layer soil moisture with 10 cm intervals up to 100 cm deep at daily resolution over the period 2000–2020. Using in situ soil moisture as the benchmark, two independent experiments were conducted to evaluate the estimation accuracy of SMCI1.0: year-to-year (ubRMSE ranges from 0.041 to 0.052 and R ranges from 0.883 to 0.919) and station-to-station experiments (ubRMSE ranges from 0.045 to 0.051 and R ranges from 0.866 to 0.893). SMCI1.0 generally has advantages over other gridded soil moisture products, including ERA5-Land, SMAP-L4, and SoMo.ml. However, the high errors of soil moisture are often located in the North China Monsoon Region. Overall, the highly accurate estimations of both the year-to-year and station-to-station experiments ensure the applicability of SMCI1.0 to study the spatial–temporal patterns. As SMCI1.0 is based on in situ data, it can be a useful complement to existing model-based and satellite-based soil moisture datasets for various hydrological, meteorological, and ecological analyses and models. The DOI link for the dataset is http://dx.doi.org/10.11888/Terre.tpdc.272415 (Shangguan et al., 2022).

Interpretable Machine Learning (IML) has rapidly advanced in recent years, offering new opportunities to improve our understanding of the complex Earth system. IML goes beyond conventional machine learning by not only making predictions but also seeking to elucidate the reasoning behind those predictions. The combination of predictive power and enhanced transparency makes IML a promising approach for uncovering relationships in data that may be overlooked by traditional analysis. Despite its potential, the broader implications for the field have yet to be fully appreciated. Meanwhile, the rapid proliferation of IML, still in its early stages, has been accompanied by instances of careless application. In response to these challenges, this paper focuses on how IML can effectively and appropriately aid geoscientists in advancing process understanding—areas that are often underexplored in more technical discussions of IML. Specifically, we identify pragmatic application scenarios for IML in typical geoscientific studies, such as quantifying relationships in specific contexts, generating hypotheses about potential mechanisms, and evaluating process‐based models. Moreover, we present a general and practical workflow for using IML to address specific research questions. In particular, we identify several critical and common pitfalls in the use of IML that can lead to misleading conclusions, and propose corresponding good practices. Our goal is to facilitate a broader, yet more careful and thoughtful integration of IML into Earth science research, positioning it as a valuable data science tool capable of enhancing our current understanding of the Earth system.

Accurate and high-resolution spatial soil information is crucial for efficient and sustainable land use, management, and conservation. Since the establishment of digital soil mapping (DSM) and the GlobalSoilMap working group, significant advances have been made in terms of the availability and quality of spatial soil information globally. However, accurately predicting soil variation over large and complex areas with limited samples remains a challenge, especially for China, which has diverse soil landscapes. To address this challenge, we utilised 11 209 representative multi-source legacy soil profiles (including the Second National Soil Survey of China, the World Soil Information Service, the First National Soil Survey of China, and regional databases) and high-resolution soil-forming environment characterisation. Using advanced ensemble machine learning and a high-performance parallel-computing strategy, we developed comprehensive maps of 23 soil physical and chemical properties at six standard depth layers from 0 to 2 m in China at a 90 m spatial resolution (China dataset of soil properties for land surface modelling version 2, CSDLv2). Data-splitting and independent-sample validation strategies were employed to evaluate the accuracy of the predicted maps' quality. The results showed that the predicted maps were significantly more accurate and detailed compared to traditional soil type linkage methods (i.e. CSDLv1, the first version of the dataset), SoilGrids 2.0, and HWSD 2.0 products, effectively representing the spatial variation of soil properties across China. The prediction accuracy of soil properties at all depth intervals ranged from good to moderate, with median model efficiency coefficients for most soil properties ranging from 0.29 to 0.70 during data-splitting validation and from 0.25 to 0.84 during independent-sample validation. The wide range between the 5 % lower and 95 % upper prediction limits may indicate substantial room for improvement in current predictions. The relative importance of environmental covariates in predictions varied with soil property and depth, indicating the complexity of interactions among multiple factors in the soil formation processes. As the soil profiles used in this study mainly originate from the Second National Soil Survey of China, conducted during the 1970s and 1980s, they could provide new perspectives on soil changes, together with existing maps based on soil profiles from the 2010s. The findings of this study make important contributions to the GlobalSoilMap project and can also be used for regional Earth system modelling and land surface modelling to better represent the role of soil in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles in China. This dataset is freely available at https://www.scidb.cn/s/ZZJzAz (last access: 17 November 2024​​​​​​​) or https://doi.org/10.11888/Terre.tpdc.301235 (Shi and Shangguan, 2024).

Machine learning (ML) is a powerful tool for hydrological modelling, prediction, dataset creation and the generation of insights into hydrological processes. As such, ML has become integral to the field of large-sample hydrology, where hundreds to thousands of river catchments are included within a single ML model to capture diverse hydrological behaviours and improve model generalizability. This manuscript outlines recent advances in ML for large-sample hydrology. We review new tools in explainable AI (XAI) and interpretability approaches, as well as challenges in these areas. Key research avenues for large-sample hydrology include addressing variability in interpretations resulting from different ML models and XAI techniques, enhancing hydrological predictions in data-sparse and human-impacted regions, reducing the ‘cascade of uncertainty’ inherent in hydrological modelling, developing improved methods for multivariate prediction and identifying causal relationships. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Hydrology in the 21st century: challenges in science, to policy and practice’.

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable in Earth system science that affects various hydrological and agricultural processes. Convolutional long short-term memory (Conv-LSTM) networks are widely used deep learning models for spatio-temporal SM prediction, but they are often regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability and transparency. This study aims to interpret Conv-LSTM for spatio-temporal SM prediction in China, using the permutation importance and smooth gradient methods for global and local interpretation, respectively. The trained Conv-LSTM model achieved a high R2 of 0.92. The global interpretation revealed that precipitation and soil properties are the most important factors affecting SM prediction. Furthermore, the local interpretation showed that the seasonality of variables was more evident in the high-latitude regions, but their effects were stronger in low-latitude regions. Overall, this study provides a novel approach to enhance the trust-building for Conv-LSTM models and to demonstrate the potential of artificial intelligence-assisted Earth system modeling and understanding element prediction in the future.

Global carbon fluxes describe the carbon exchange between land and atmosphere. However, already available global carbon fluxes datasets have not been adjusted by the available site data and deep learning tools. In this work, a global carbon fluxes dataset (named as GCFD) of gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (RECO), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) has been developed via a deep learning based convolutional neural network (CNN) model. The dataset has a spatial resolution of 1 km at three time steps per month from January 1999 to June 2020. Flux measurements were used as a training target while remote sensing of vegetation conditions and meteorological data were used as predictors. The results showed that CNN could outperform other commonly used machine learning methods such as random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) by leading to satisfactory performance with R² values of the validation stage as 0.82, 0.72 and 0.62 for GPP, RECO, and NEE modelling, respectively. Thus, CNN trained using reanalysis meteorological data and remote sensing data was chosen to produce the global dataset. GCFD showed higher accuracy and more spatial details than some other global carbon flux datasets with reasonable spatial pattern and temporal variation. GCFD is also in accordance with vegetation conditions detected by remote sensing. Owing to the obtained results, GCFD can be a useful reference for various meteorological and ecological analyses and modelling, especially when high resolution carbon flux maps are required.