Objectives. We investigated the contribution of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) to the historic epidemic of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Saskatchewan. Methods. We constructed a population-level simulation model of the inter- and intragenerational interaction of GDM and T2DM for the period 1956 to 2006. The model was stratified by gender, ethnicity, and age; parameterized with primary and secondary data; and calibrated to match historic time series. Risk of diabetes was sigmoidally trended to capture exogenous factors. Results. Best-fit calibrations suggested GDM may be responsible for 19% to 30% of the cases of T2DM among Saskatchewan First Nations people, but only for approximately 6% of cases among other persons living in Saskatchewan. The estimated contribution of GDM to the growth in T2DM was highly sensitive to assumptions concerning the post-GDM risk of developing T2DM. Conclusions. GDM may be an important driver for the T2DM epidemic in many subpopulations. Because GDM is a readily identifiable, preventable, and treatable condition, investments in prevention, rapid diagnosis, and evidence-based treatment of GDM in at-risk populations may offer substantial benefit in lowering the T2DM burden over many generations. Model-informed data collection can aid in assessing intervention tradeoffs.

Physical inactivity is the fourth leading cause of death worldwide, costing approximately US $67.5 billion per year to health care systems. To curb the physical inactivity pandemic, it is time to move beyond traditional approaches and engage citizens by repurposing sedentary behavior (SB)-enabling ubiquitous tools (eg, smartphones). The primary objective of the Saskatchewan, let's move and map our activity (SMART) Study was to develop a mobile and citizen science methodological platform for active living surveillance, knowledge translation, and policy interventions. This methodology paper enumerates the SMART Study platform's conceptualization, design, implementation, data collection procedures, analytical strategies, and potential for informing policy interventions. This longitudinal investigation was designed to engage participants (ie, citizen scientists) in Regina and Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, in four different seasons across 3 years. In spring 2017, pilot data collection was conducted, where 317 adult citizen scientists (≥18 years) were recruited in person and online. Citizen scientists used a custom-built smartphone app, Ethica (Ethica Data Services Inc), for 8 consecutive days to provide a complex series of objective and subjective data. Citizen scientists answered a succession of validated surveys that were assigned different smartphone triggering mechanisms (eg, user-triggered and schedule-triggered). The validated surveys captured physical activity (PA), SB, motivation, perception of outdoor and indoor environment, and eudaimonic well-being. Ecological momentary assessments were employed on each day to capture not only PA but also physical and social contexts along with barriers and facilitators of PA, as relayed by citizen scientists using geo-coded pictures and audio files. To obtain a comprehensive objective picture of participant location, motion, and compliance, 6 types of sensor-based (eg, global positioning system and accelerometer) data were surveilled for 8 days. Initial descriptive analyses were conducted using geo-coded photographs and audio files. Pictures and audio files (ie, community voices) showed that the barriers and facilitators of active living included intrinsic or extrinsic motivations, social contexts, and outdoor or indoor environment, with pets and favorable urban design featuring as the predominant facilitators, and work-related screen time proving to be the primary barrier. The preliminary pilot results show the flexibility of the SMART Study surveillance platform in identifying and addressing limitations based on empirical evidence. The results also show the successful implementation of a platform that engages participants to catalyze policy interventions. Although SMART Study is currently geared toward surveillance, using the same platform, active living interventions could be remotely implemented. SMART Study is the first mobile, citizen science surveillance platform utilizing a rigorous, longitudinal, and mixed-methods investigation to temporally capture behavioral data for knowledge translation and policy interventions.

Epidemiological studies indicate that labor underutilization and suicide are associated, yet it remains unclear whether this association is causal. We applied convergent cross mapping to test for causal effects of unemployment and underemployment on suicidal behavior, using monthly data on labor underutilization and suicide rates in Australia for the period 2004–2016. Our analyses provide evidence that rates of unemployment and underemployment were significant drivers of suicide mortality in Australia over the 13-year study period. Predictive modeling indicates that 19.9% of the ~32,000 suicides reported between 2004 and 2016 resulted directly from labor underutilization, including 3295 suicides attributable to unemployment and 3131 suicides attributable to underemployment. We conclude that economic policies prioritizing full employment should be considered integral to any comprehensive national suicide prevention strategy.

Background: The number of persons with dementia is steadily growing, as is the number of individuals supporting persons with dementia. Primary caregivers of persons with dementia are most often family members or spouses of the persons with dementia, and they are more likely to experience increased stress and other negative effects than individuals who are not primary caregivers. Although in-person support groups have been shown to help buffer the negative impacts of caregiving, some caregivers live in isolated or rural communities and are unable to make the burdensome commitment of traveling to cities. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we developed a mobile smartphone support app designed for primary caregivers of persons with dementia, with the goal of reducing caregiver burden and easing stress. The app features a 12-week intervention, largely rooted in mindfulness-based self-compassion (MBSC), because MBSC has been linked to minimizing stress, depression, and anxiety. Objective: The primary objectives of our program are twofold: to explore the feasibility of a 12-week mobile support program and to conduct an initial efficacy evaluation of changes in perceived caregiver burden, coping styles, and emotional well-being of caregivers before and after the program. Methods: Our feasibility study used a 2-phase participatory pretest and posttest design, focusing on acceptability, demand, practicality, implementation, and efficacy. At phase I, we recruited 57 primary caregivers of persons with dementia (mean age 76.3, SD 12.9 years), comprising spouses (21/57, 37%), children (21/57, 37%), and friends or relatives (15/57, 26%) of persons with dementia, of whom 29 (51%) completed all measures at both pre- and postprogram. The content of the program featured a series of MBSC podcasts. Our primary outcome measure was caregiver burden, with secondary outcome measures including coping styles and emotional well-being. Daily ecological momentary assessments enabled us to ask participants, “How are you feeling today?” Phase II of our study involved semistructured follow-up interviews with most participants (n=21) who completed phase I. Results: Our findings suggest that our app or program meets the feasibility criteria examined. Notably, participants generally accepted the program and believed it could be a useful resource. Emotional well-being increased significantly (P=.04), and emotion-based coping significantly decreased (P=.01). Participants generally considered the app or program to be a helpful resource. Conclusions: Although there were no significant changes in caregiver burden, we were encouraged by the increased emotional well-being of our participants following the completion of our program. We also conclude that our app or program demonstrated feasibility (ie, acceptability, practicality, implementation, and efficacy) and can provide a much-needed resource for primary caregivers of persons with dementia. In the subsequent version of the program, we will respond to participant feedback by incorporating web-based weekly sessions and incorporating an outcome measure of self-compassion.

Objectives: This study investigates two approaches to estimate the potential impact of a population-level intervention on Australian suicide, to highlight the importance of selecting appropriate analytic approaches for informing evidence-based strategies for suicide prevention. Methods: The potential impact of a psychosocial therapy intervention on the incidence of suicide in Australia over the next 10 years was used as a case study to compare the potential impact on suicides averted using: (1) a traditional epidemiological measure of population attributable risk and (2) a dynamic measure of population impact based on a systems science model of suicide that incorporates changes over time. Results: Based on the population preventive fraction, findings suggest that the psychosocial therapy intervention if implemented among all eligible individuals in the Australian population would prevent 5.4% of suicides (or 1936 suicides) over the next 10 years. In comparison, estimates from the dynamic simulation model which accounts for changes in the effect size of the intervention over time, the time taken for the intervention to have an impact in the population, and likely barriers to the uptake and availability of services suggest that the intervention would avert a lower proportion of suicides (between 0.4% and 0.5%) over the same follow-up period. Conclusion: Traditional epidemiological measures used to estimate population health burden have several limitations that are often understated and can lead to unrealistic expectations of the potential impact of evidence-based interventions in real-world settings. This study highlights these limitations and proposes an alternative analytic approach to guide policy and practice decisions to achieve reductions in Australian suicide.