Beneath southwestern Colombia, intermediate‐depth earthquakes in the Cauca cluster locate in the subducting Nazca plate and in two columns extending ~40‐km into the mantle wedge above the slab. To investigate the cluster, we determine focal mechanisms for 69 small‐to‐moderate‐sized (2.3 ≤ Ml ≤ 4.7) earthquakes in the cluster by fitting short‐period body wave waveforms using the cut‐and‐paste method. The focal mechanisms have various faulting types and variably oriented nodal planes. We invert the focal mechanisms of the intraslab earthquakes for the intraslab stress field but cannot fit the region with a homogeneous stress tensor. We find that the principal stress axes rotate with the slab geometry, which has a concave shape and increases in dip angle from north to south. The northern region has slab normal compression and similar‐magnitude maximum and intermediate principal stresses. The minimum stress axis is oriented ~41° counterclockwise from the downdip direction. In the steeper southern region, the intermediate stress axis orients in the downdip direction. Deviation from a typical downdip extensional stress field may result from a buoyant young slab, an eastward mantle flow push, and/or along‐strike compression from the concave shape of the slab. This stress field would allow slip along preexisting faults of various orientations, such as the trench‐perpendicular seafloor features presently observed offshore, and contribute to the apparent heterogeneity of the intraslab stress field. The mantle wedge earthquakes also have various focal mechanisms but tend to have a subvertical nodal plane that aligns with the earthquake locations.

Many studies have shown that b values tend to decrease prior to large earthquakes. To evaluate the forecast information in b value variations, we conduct a systematic assessment in Yunnan Province, China, where the seismicity is intense and moderate–large earthquakes occur frequently. The catalog in the past two decades is divided into four time periods (January 2000–December 2004, January 2005–December 2009, January 2010–December 2014, and January 2015–December 2019). The spatial b values are calculated for each 5-year span and then are used to forecast moderate-large earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in the subsequent period. As the fault systems in Yunnan Province are complex, to avoid possible biases in b value computation caused by different faulting regimes when using the grid search, the hierarchical space–time point-process models (HIST-PPM) proposed by Ogata are utilized to estimate spatial b values in this study. The forecast performance is tested by Molchan error diagram (MED) and the efficiency is quantified by probability gain (PG) and probability difference (PD). It is found that moderate–large earthquakes are more likely to occur in low b regions. The MED analysis shows that there is considerable precursory information in spatial b values and the forecast efficiency increases with magnitude in the Yunnan Province. These results suggest that the b value might be useful in middle- and long-term earthquake forecasts in the study area.

Earthquake forecast and risk assessment are of key importance in reducing casualties and property losses. However, they have not been fully achieved due to the complexity of earthquakes. Numerous studies have explored the correspondence of the b-value with changes in effective stress, leveraging temporal and spatial variations to identify precursor characteristics of destructive events in both natural and induced seismic activities. However, robust interpretation of predictive b-values hinges on rigorous estimation, as biased results can mislead conclusions. This paper provides a comprehensive review of spatiotemporal b-value estimation methods alongside statistical significance tests. A pilot b-value analysis of natural earthquakes and induced seismicity manifested the valid impression. The expansion of monitoring datasets with the development of acquisition technology or dense array and advanced estimation methodology will augment the utility of b-value analysis in seismic research and hazard assessment.

One important question in earthquake prediction is whether a moderate or large earthquake will be followed by an even bigger one. Through temporal b-value evolution analysis, the traffic light system can be used to estimate if an earthquake is a foreshock. However, the traffic light system does not take into account the uncertainty of b-values when they constitute a criterion. In this study, we propose an optimization of the traffic light system with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and bootstrap. The traffic light signals are controlled by the significance level of the difference in b-value between the sample and the background rather than an arbitrary constant. We applied the optimized traffic light system to the 2021 Yangbi earthquake sequence, which could be explicitly recognized as foreshock–mainshock–aftershock using the temporal and spatial variations in b-values. In addition, we used a new statistical parameter related to the distance between earthquakes to track earthquake nucleation features. We also confirmed that the optimized traffic light system works on a high-resolution catalog that includes small-magnitude earthquakes. The comprehensive consideration of b-value, significance probability, and seismic clustering might improve the reliability of earthquake risk judgment.

Characterized by frequent earthquakes and a dense population, Yunnan Province, China, faces significant seismic hazards and is a hot place for earthquake forecasting research. In a previous study, we evaluated the performance of the b value for 5-year seismic forecasting during 2000–2019 and made a forward prediction of M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in 2020–2024. In this study, with the forecast period having passed, we first revisit the results and assess the forward prediction performance. Then, the background seismicity rate, which may also offer valuable long-term forecasting information, is incorporated into earthquake prediction for Yunnan Province. To assess the effectiveness of the prediction, the Molchan Error Diagram (MED), Probability Gain (PG), and Probability Difference (PD) are employed. Using a 25-year catalog, the spatial b value and background seismicity rate across five temporal windows are calculated, and 86 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes as prediction samples are examined. The predictive performance of the background seismicity rate and b value is comprehensively tested and shown to be useful for 5-year forecasting in Yunnan. The performance of the b value exhibits a positive correlation with the predicted earthquake magnitude. The synergistic effect of combining these two predictors is also revealed. Finally, using the threshold corresponding to the maximum PD, we integrate the forecast information of background seismicity rates and the b value. A forward prediction is derived for the period from January 2025 to December 2029. This study can be helpful for disaster preparedness and risk management in Yunnan Province, China.

Microseismic events play a crucial role in mapping fault and fracture distributions in natural and induced earthquakes. Detecting and localizing microseismic events is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios. Waveform stacking imaging location is a practical approach for automatically detecting and localizing microseismic events, assuming that the traveltime-corrected seismic waveforms will stack and enhance coherently. However, coherent stack enhancement is susceptible to polarity reversal caused by the nonexplosive components of the source mechanism, which can lead to an unfocused source image, making it difficult to retrieve the optimal location accurately. In this study, we develop a new polarity correction method to address this issue based on the fact that the instantaneous phase difference between two seismic signals with opposite polarity is ±π. First, the Hilbert transform is applied to the original seismic record to obtain the instantaneous amplitude A(t) and phase φ(t). Then, a new signal is constructed by multiplying A(t) with cos[2φ(t)]. The constructed signals for different receivers have the same polarity; therefore, they can be used to refocus the source image. Furthermore, they preserve positive and negative amplitudes, which contributes to noise suppression. Synthetic tests show that our method can effectively achieve polarity correction and noise suppression, enabling a high-resolution source image. Application to real hydraulic fracturing data demonstrates that our method can detect and locate more microseismic events at the fracturing depths, suggesting its effectiveness and potential advantage in microseismic data processing. Because the polarity correction is performed in the data domain without relying on specific receiver layouts, the method is computationally efficient and could be applied to real-time microseismic monitoring across various sites, such as hydraulic fracturing and volcano monitoring.