This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination of fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), the extent to which fire may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), and the potential losses and resilience to those losses (vulnerability). This is followed by a brief discussion of how these concepts can be integrated and connected to mitigation and adaptation efforts. We then review operational fire risk systems in place in various parts of the world. Finally, we propose an integrated fire risk system being developed under the FirEUrisk European project, as an example of how the different risk components (including danger, exposure and vulnerability) can be generated and combined into synthetic risk indices to provide a more comprehensive wildfire risk assessment, but also to consider where and on what variables reduction efforts should be stressed and to envisage policies to be better adapted to future fire regimes. Climate and socio-economic changes entail that wildfires are becoming even more a critical environmental hazard; extreme fires are observed in many areas of the world that regularly experience fire, yet fire activity is also increasing in areas where wildfires were previously rare. To mitigate the negative impacts of fire, those responsible for managing risk must leverage the information available through the risk assessment process, along with an improved understanding on how the various components of risk can be targeted to improve and optimize the many strategies for mitigation and adaptation to an increasing fire risk.
27 December 2022 in Science of The Total Environment
To benefit allergy patients and the medical practitioners, pollen information should be available in both a reliable and timely manner; the latter is only recently possible due to automatic monitoring. To evaluate the performance of all currently available automatic instruments, an international intercomparison campaign was jointly organised by the EUMETNET AutoPollen Programme and the ADOPT COST Action in Munich, Germany (March-July 2021). The automatic systems (hardware plus identification algorithms) were compared with manual Hirst-type traps. Measurements were aggregated into 3-hourly or daily values to allow comparison across all devices. We report results for total pollen as well as for Betula, Fraxinus, Poaceae, and Quercus, for all instruments that provided these data. The results for daily averages compared better with Hirst observations than the 3-hourly values. For total pollen, there was a considerable spread among systems, with some reaching R2 > 0.6 (3 h) and R2 > 0.75 (daily) compared with Hirst-type traps, whilst other systems were not suitable to sample total pollen efficiently (R2 < 0.3). For individual pollen types, results similar to the Hirst were frequently shown by a small group of systems. For Betula, almost all systems performed well (R2 > 0.75 for 9 systems for 3-hourly data). Results for Fraxinus and Quercus were not as good for most systems, while for Poaceae (with some exceptions), the performance was weakest. For all pollen types and for most measurement systems, false positive classifications were observed outside of the main pollen season. Different algorithms applied to the same device also showed different results, highlighting the importance of this aspect of the measurement system. Overall, given the 30 % error on daily concentrations that is currently accepted for Hirst-type traps, several automatic systems are currently capable of being used operationally to provide real-time observations at high temporal resolutions. They provide distinct advantages compared to the manual Hirst-type measurements.
10 November 2021 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Observations of aerosol and trace gases in the remote troposphere are vital to quantify background concentrations and identify long-term trends in atmospheric composition on large spatial scales. Measurements made at high altitude are often used to study free-tropospheric air; however such high-altitude sites can be influenced by boundary layer air masses. Thus, accurate information on air mass origin and transport pathways to high-altitude sites is required. Here we present a new method, based on the source–receptor relationship (SRR) obtained from backwards WRF-FLEXPART simulations and a k-means clustering approach, to identify source regions of air masses arriving at measurement sites. Our method is tailored to areas of complex terrain and to stations influenced by both local and long-range sources. We have applied this method to the Chacaltaya (CHC) GAW station (5240 m a.s.l.; 16.35∘ S, 68.13∘ W) for the 6-month duration of the “Southern Hemisphere high-altitude experiment on particle nucleation and growth” (SALTENA) to identify where sampled air masses originate and to quantify the influence of the surface and the free troposphere. A key aspect of our method is that it is probabilistic, and for each observation time, more than one air mass (cluster) can influence the station, and the percentage influence of each air mass can be quantified. This is in contrast to binary methods, which label each observation time as influenced by either boundary layer or free-troposphere air masses. Air sampled at CHC is a mix of different provenance. We find that on average 9 % of the air, at any given observation time, has been in contact with the surface within 4 d prior to arriving at CHC. Furthermore, 24 % of the air has been located within the first 1.5 km above ground level (surface included). Consequently, 76 % of the air sampled at CHC originates from the free troposphere. However, pure free-tropospheric influences are rare, and often samples are concurrently influenced by both boundary layer and free-tropospheric air masses. A clear diurnal cycle is present, with very few air masses that have been in contact with the surface being detected at night. The 6-month analysis also shows that the most dominant air mass (cluster) originates in the Amazon and is responsible for 29 % of the sampled air. Furthermore, short-range clusters (origins within 100 km of CHC) have high temporal frequency modulated by local meteorology driven by the diurnal cycle, whereas the mid- and long-range clusters' (>200 km) variability occurs on timescales governed by synoptic-scale dynamics. To verify the reliability of our method, in situ sulfate observations from CHC are combined with the SRR clusters to correctly identify the (pre-known) source of the sulfate: the Sabancaya volcano located 400 km north-west from the station.
27 February 2019 in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Over the years, the problem of dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in stable stratification remained unclear because of the practical impossibility to directly measure the process of dissipation that takes place at the smallest scales of turbulent motion. Poor representation of dissipation causes intolerable uncertainties in turbulence-closure theory and thus in modelling stably stratified turbulent flows. We obtain a theoretical solution to this problem for the whole range of stratifications from neutral to limiting stable; and validate it via (i) direct numerical simulation (DNS) immediately detecting the dissipation rate and (ii) indirect estimates of dissipation rate retrieved via the TKE budget equation from atmospheric measurements of other components of the TKE budget. The proposed formulation of dissipation rate will be of use in any turbulence-closure models employing the TKE budget equation and in problems requiring precise knowledge of the high-frequency part of turbulence spectra in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol science, and microphysics of clouds.
The dataset presents a 43 year-long reanalysis of pollen seasons for three major allergenic genera of trees in Europe: alder (Alnus), birch (Betula), and olive (Olea). Driven by the meteorological reanalysis ERA5, the atmospheric composition model SILAM predicted the flowering period and calculated the Europe-wide dispersion pattern of pollen for the years 1980–2022. The model applied an extended 4-dimensional variational data assimilation of in-situ observations of aerobiological networks in 34 European countries to reproduce the inter-annual variability and trends of pollen production and distribution. The control variable of the assimilation procedure was the total pollen release during each flowering season, implemented as an annual correction factor to the mean pollen production. The dataset was designed as an input to studies on climate-induced and anthropogenically driven changes in the European vegetation, biodiversity monitoring, bioaerosol modelling and assessment, as well as, in combination with intra-seasonal observations, for health-related applications.
The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) delivers a wide range of free and open products in relation to atmospheric composition at global and regional scales. The CAMS Regional Service produces daily forecasts, analyses, and reanalyses of air quality in Europe. This service relies on a distributed modelling production by 11 teams in 10 European countries: CHIMERE (France), DEHM (Denmark), EMEP (Norway), EURAD-IM (Germany), GEM-AQ (Poland), LOTOS-EUROS (the Netherlands), MATCH (Sweden), MINNI (Italy), MOCAGE (France), MONARCH (Spain), and SILAM (Finland). The project management and coordination of the service is conducted by a Centralised Regional Production Unit. Every day, each model produces 24 h analyses for the previous day and 97 h forecasts for 19 chemical species over a spatial domain at 0.1 × 0.1° resolution (approximately 10 km × 10 km), with 420 points in latitude and 700 in longitude and 10 vertical levels. Six pollen species are also delivered for the surface forecasts. The 11 individual models are then combined into an ENSEMBLE median. In total, more than 82 billion data points are made available for public use on a daily basis. The design of the system follows clear technical requirements in terms of consistency in the model setup and forcing fields (meteorology, surface anthropogenic emission fluxes, and chemical boundary conditions). But it also benefits from a diversity in the description of atmospheric processes through the design of the 11 European chemistry-transport models (CTMs) involved. The present article aims to provide a comprehensive technical documentation, both for the setup and for the diversity of CTMs involved in the service. We also include an overview of the main output products, their public dissemination, and the related evaluation and quality control strategy.